It’s been a long time since I got to sink my teeth into a major weekend of estimated lies…

The stakes just haven’t been this high since last Nov/Dec, when I was on the sidelines of all this silliness.  Here’s the simple truism… if Lilo & Stitch really had a $12.3 million Friday and if Minority Report really had an $11.9 million Friday, I would calculate the possibility that Minority Report won the weekend as .1 percent or 1 in 1000.  Freak shows happen.  But an animated movie is always going to jump more Friday-to-Saturday than an adult-skewing film.  The Sunday number movement is sometimes balanced by packed matinees for the animation and an evening edge for the adult movie, though Sunday numbers are often higher than Friday numbers with animated films.   Which brings up the question of why Disney’s estimate on Lilo is so low… if the $12.3 million Friday number is correct. 

Fox’s Bruce Snyder estimates that Lilo & Stitch’s final number is actually $1 million higher than the official Disney estimate of $35.8 million, putting the film just $100,000 behind Fox’s temporarily weekend-winning estimate of $36.9 million for Minority Report.  And if the number for Friday really was $12.3 million, I would expect the final to be even higher than that… over $40 million, if you use the models of Shrek (which opened higher) and Stuart Little (which opened lower). 

So, I am questioning the daily numbers that have been reported and, since there are significant disagreements between studios about what happened each day, we’ll just have to wait and see what the final numbers say.  Finals are often inaccurate as well, as EDI and Exhibitor Relations ultimately rely on the studios to report their numbers.  The only way these things become public embarrassments is when rival studios go public.  Disney’s Chuck Viane told Reuter’s Dean Goodman, “We're both public companies, and I'm confident the estimates will be corrected on Monday morning.”  Sound like a threat to you?  It sounds like a threat to me.  I would expect to see Lilo & Stitch take the weekend by more than $1 million when the final numbers are announced.

The Scooby Doo final is likely to have been pumped up by a couple of million as well.  If the report of a $7.8 million Friday is accurate and the film charted the same way as last weekend, the total would be around $22.1 million, not the $24.4 million estimated by Warner Bros.  Why would they pump up the numbers?  The magic $100 million mark makes Scooby’s third-place finish into news on Sunday night.  The fact that it is likely to actually go over $100 million in Monday or Tuesday means no news, except on entertainment shows.  Boo hoo. 

I still believe in the legs of both Minority Report and Lilo & Stitch.  People were making excuses for both films on Sunday morning.  But it is true that Minority Report is a more thoughtful movie… even if Fox sold it as more of an action piece than it is and while Spielberg and Cruise gave conflicting, albeit more honest, signals that it is more thoughtful than that.  And it is true that L&S is the best non-CG animated opener for Disney since The Lion King, though Ice Age’s $46.3 million opening is really what makes this painful for Disney.  Ice Age topped out at $174 million domestic.  I think Lilo & Stitch is a much better movie and I hope that it will still leg its way to the $200 million mark.

TIMES TO STRETCH:  At first, I was surprised that the New York Times was doing such a shopworn story as “Moviegoers Are Flocking To Forget Their Troubles.”  It has always been the case that the movie business has thrived in bad times.  But then I got into Rick Lyman’s story and I realized that something was askew.  He interviewed a bunch of people who benefit from pushing the idea that movies are the place where America comes together.  And I don’t dispute that.  But I do dispute the idea that the uptick in box office this year has to do with anything other than studios delivering movies that people wanted to see more than the movies delivered last year… so far, at least. 

I’ve been playing with all kinds of statistics, but I’ll just leave you with the key ones.  First, going by the numbers from the end of last weekend, the top three movies of 2002 (Spider-Man, Star Wars, Ice Age) destroy the top three movies of this date last year (The Mummy Returns, Shrek, Pearl Harbor).  Based on finals from last year, as compared to right now for this year’s films, 2002 beats 2001, $835 million to $669 million or 25 percent.  But that’s an unfair comparison.  Compare 2001’s number as of the end of what would be last weekend, the difference rises to 64 percent or $835 million to $509 million. 

Breaking it down by month, there was only a 3 percent uptick in January and 2 percent in February.  March showed a major increase of 45 percent.  Why?  Well, consider that the ten March releases that generated the most domestic box office produced $199 million total in March.  Now, look at Ice Age’s March and the first weekend of Panic Room alone… $147 million.  There was no huge March movie last year.  This year, there was.  And that’s just the tip of this year’s March iceberg.  The eight other top March releases generated $249 million in the month of March alone. 

So, there was a $50 million improvement even without the two big pictures.  Maybe the New York Times has is right?  No.  Because in the additional eight, there are some very expensive pictures that were shooting high… far more so than the 2001 product.  This year, March offered movies like The Time Machine, Showtime, Blade 2 and Resident Evil, while 2001 offered mostly wannabe sleepers like Someone Like You, Heartbreakers and Spy Kids.  Spy Kids would, of course, end up as a $100 million film… but only after showing long, long legs.  Enemy at the Gates was a big movie that Paramount had dumped into March after pulling it from an Oscar-contending December slot.  And the other two significant pictures were urban oriented niche pictures – Exit Wounds and The Brothers. 

April was up just 16 percent, despite The Scorpion King and in part, because Panic Room slowed down quite quickly. 

And then we are back to the last seven weeks… Spider-Man and Star Wars time.  In the last seven weeks, 2002 beat 2001 by $219 million or 26 percent.  If you remove Spider-Man and Star Wars from this period and The Mummy Returns and Pearl Harbor from the same period last year, 2001 actually kicks 2002’s butt, $516 million to $396 million.  Obviously, the two massive pictures tend to suck some of the air out of other pictures.  But given the shortened life of domestic releases, I don’t know how much that really means anymore. 

Returning to my central point, there is no evidence that audiences are going to the theater any differently than they did last year.  One last stat… Spider-Man and Star Wars versus The Mummy Returns and Pearl Harbor, all through last weekend… the first pair is $340 million ahead.  Based on NATO’s claim that ticket prices are up 3.5 percent, which I would bet is at least 1 percent low, that increase alone has represented about $110 million at the box office.  That’s $450 million from just those two areas of increase… the vast majority of the improvement from 2001 to 2002. 

And if you are wondering about the year of The Phantom Menace, by the second weekend of June 199, the two top grossers (Phantom and The Matrix) had “only” managed a combined $458 million, which is still way behind this year’s $661 million duo.  And, for the record, The Matrix’s $171 million, which was the best domestic take ever for a March release was surpassed this year by Ice Age’s $174 million. 

In other words, it’s the movies… specific movies.  It’s not every movie.  It’s not every successful movie.  It’s Spider-Man.  It’s Attack of the Clones.  It’s Ice Age.  They came.  They saw.  They skewed the stats.

You can read the NY Times story here.

NOTHING WRONG WITH THIS:  I got a press release the other day announcing that The Wherehouse retain chain of video and music stores will create gay and lesbian video sections in 75 of their 406 outlets.  They are doing this in conjunction with Wolfe Video of New Almaden, CA, one of the country’s premiere distributors of gay and lesbian product for the home market.  Congrats to all involved.

READER OF THE DAY:  Reece’s Pieces writes:  “Thought I'd mention those great (and I mean "great" as in "full of crap") ads for Scooby Doo (on TV) listing numerous positive reviews.  Funny thing is, they add a nice touch of green ooze glow to make sure you cannot read a SINGLE review source. We even TAPED it and used a magnifying glass and we still couldn't read all of them.

In this day and age when studios have been caught making up reviewers, don'tcha think someone would have made those names a little clearer, even if they were from Jane Doe of the Weekly World News?”

And this edited-for-spoilers e-mail came from AK57:  “Hi Dave. Long time listener, first time caller.

I have to say, I don’t see what the big deal is about Minority Report. It was decent summer fare, but too inconsistent and flawed to be considered a 'great' film.

First of all, the movie is about as subtle as a sledgehammer. The movie is filled with game pieces, not characters. The worst offender is easily the Lois Smith character as the 'Mother' of the Pre-Cogs. Can you say Exposition?

Colin Farrell plays a cop whose (actions vary)  no other reason than being what the story required. The rest of the Department of Pre-Crime is basically wallpaper.

Finally, the whole tone of the film is just... odd. It lurches uncomfortably back and forth between action thriller, Three Stooges/Road Runner slapstick, and Cronenberg weirdness in what seemed to be an attempt to cram as much 'fun' into the movie as possible. It fails to hit a consistent high-note. (And I loved 'From Dusk Till Dawn', one of the greatest 180-degree tone shifts in movie history!)

There were at least two MAJOR leaps-of-logic.   The film could have at least been about something (the ability for man to change his own destiny).  Instead, Spielberg decides to rip off the last 20 pages of the Fugitive movie, except without the suspense or intensity.

There was some good stuff - Cruise effectively portrays an atypical main character that is both an altruist and, ultimately, willing to do whatever it takes to save his own butt in the end. Samantha Morton does a good job with her material, but it's pretty thin and hardly worthy of any oscar-buzz. Peter Stormare is great, even though his scene belongs in a different movie. The Spider scene is completely effective. It’s riveting, but also hits some nice comedic-touches, and has some beautiful shots.

Sorry. Still a marginal thumbs-up, but A.I. was better, even with its terrible tacked-on ending.”

E ME:  Are your e-mails bouncing back to you?  I’ve heard from a number of readers who have had a hard time e-mailing lately.  I can’t explain it and either can directvinternet, but try ladave@directvinternet if you get a bounce back.  I enjoy hearing from all of you.