by David Poland

July 9, 1999

And so, the top three contenders are at the gate. You've got your hot, fresh American Pie. You've got your beat up and dragged behind a horse for a mile Wild Wild West. And you've got the oh so resilient Big Daddy. Step right up and guess who will win the weekend!

The two keys are the fall of Wild Wild West and the rise of American Pie. Based on the numbers through the week, I don't see Wild Wild West falling too wildly. It should land somewhere around $16 million. So, can American Pie, R-rating and all, top that figure? I say yes. The Matrix, The General's Daughter and Payback are the three R-rated entries to open with more than $20 million this year. But two of the films had major movie stars and the third hit theaters in the pre-Columbine calm of the spring. If you take a third of The Matrix's opening away and add the expectation that theaters will be a bit less vigilant about the under-17s on a film that seems sweet and innocuous compared to the bigger, longer & uncut South Park, I'm willing to guess that the surefire word-of-mouth behind this film will kick the film off to an ironic $17 million start.

The irony of last weekend is that Big Daddy came out as the hero of the weekend even though it took a 52 percent dive over the Fri-Sun 3-day period. All of last weekend's 3-day numbers should improve without fireworks and barbecues to compete with on Sunday. But then again, there's no Monday holiday to boost numbers. I expect South Park to hold up pretty well and for Summer of Sam to fall in a pretty standard way. As landmarks go, look for Tarzan to pass $125 million, for The General's Daughter to crawl up near $80 million, for Star Wars to pass the $380 million mark and for Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me to hit $180 million.

The real arthouse must-see continues to be Run Lola Run, but Buena Vista Social Club, The Red Violin, Limbo, My Son The Fanatic and After Life are all well worth the trip. And his weekend, add Genghis Blues and Autumn Tale to that list. Genghis starts in New York and San Francisco only and Autumn Tale appears only in New York, but put them both on your "to do" list. Genghis is no masterpiece of production, but the power of real life blind jazz musician Paul Pena and his search for a place of comfort in this world makes any of the Belic Bros. weaknesses completely meaningless. And I already wrote about Autumn in the main body of today's column.

Last but hardly least, Shakespeare in Love is rearing its head into Box Office Extra yet again. The film went into its second run last weekend and with successful films, one expects a jump n the box office when that happens. For instance, when The Lost World: Jurassic Park, one of the great second run hits of all time, hit the $2 houses in its 11th weekend, the film jumped 307 percent, from $258,965 to $1.1 million. When Titanic, the most successful film of all time went second run in it's 30th week, it leapt 230 percent, form $405,669 to $1.3 million. And when Miramax's heartwarming, Oscar-grabbing Good Will Hunting became available at a price in its 28th week, a 247 percent ascendance from $92,165 to $319,713 was the result. All very impressive. But as usual, a Miramax film looking to hit a box office mark is more than impressive. It's unbelievable! Shakespeare in Love went from just $74,703 to $582,774 in just one week, I thought it was a typo at first. But no, the film made a 680 percent vault from "No way it's gonna make it to $100 million" to "maybe we can get to $105 million." Keep in mind, had Shakespeare in Love simply tripled it's gross, it probably still never would have made the $100 million wire. As it is now, look for S.I.L. to make the $100 million mark by August 2. Another great moment in artistic achievement.

WEEKEND GUESSTIMATES:
1. American Pie - 2507 venues - new - $17million
2. Wild Wild West - 3342 venues - off 40 percent - $16.6 million
3. Big Daddy - 3254 venues - off 45 percent - $11 million
4. Tarzan - 3131 venues - off 35 percent - $9 million
5. South Park - 2128 venues - off 28 percent - $8.1 million
6. The General's Daughter - 2710 venues - off 30 percent - $7.5 million
7. Star Wars - 2447 venues - off 29 percent - $6.7 million
8. Arlington Road - 1631 screens - new - $6 million
9. Austin Powers 2 - 2608 venues - off 45 percent - $5 million
10. Summer of Sam - 1536 venues - off 35 percent - $3.9 million


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