by David Poland

July 16, 1999

Eyes Wide Shut may be the widest opener this weekend, but it will still have just the fifth most venues at which to play. From top down, venue counts still start with Wild Wild West, then Big Daddy, Tarzan, American Pie and then, EWS. Of course, the distinction of 1100 venues from #1 to #5 wouldn't matter if Eyes Wide Shut were a highly commercial film. But it isn't. I should still open on curiosity value alone, but by Sunday afternoon, word will be out and only the most serious filmgoers will be heading in EWS' direction. Oh well. I still think that Eyes Wide Shut will take the weekend with about $17.5 million. Close behind, look for a slowly falling American Pie. And that's when it gets interesting. Big Daddy should hold up better than Wild Wild West, but will the growing wake on Lake Placid propel the croc-u-mock-u-mentary to as much as $14 million? Probably not. But it still may beat Wild Wild West.

Tarzan should fall to a more Muppet manageable $8.5 million in what is one of the few true head-to-head battles of this summer. Bet Disney. The Wood tries to take advantage of a dearth of color in theaters to try and shock everyone from the quiet entry point of 1191 venues.

It's danger time for Summer of Sam, Arlington Road, South Park: Longer, Bigger & Uncut and Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged. All four could fall out of The Top Ten, representing the first big rollover of the summer season.

According got Exhibitor Relations, The Blair Witch Project will open on a larger than expected 27 screens. You can catch the co-writers/co-directors, Eduardo Sanchez and Ed Myrink tonight in L.A. At the NuArt Theater. I know Jeff Wells will see this is as a bad sign for the picture, but he's nuts on this subject. Also going a little nuts lately is all the talk around the Roger Ebert suggestion of an "A" rating. It will have to wait until Monday, but I will explain once again why the NC-17 doesnÕt work and why the only way to create an adult rating that works will require specific guidelines. Entertainment Weekly/CNN once again blurred reality by suggesting that somehow the NC-17 should be like the X in the days when Midnight Cowboy and A Clockwork Orange got Xs. Apples and oranges. I'll explain why on Monday. In the meantime, here are the guesstimates.

WEEKEND GUESSTIMATES:
1. Eyes Wide Shut - 2411 venues - new - $17.5 million
2. American Pie - 2515 venues - off 18 percent - $15.3 million
3. Lake Placid - 2095 venues - new - $12 million
4. Big Daddy - 3254 venues - off 28 percent - $11.5 million
5. Wild Wild West - 3342 venues - off 40 percent - $10.1 million
6. Tarzan - 2838 venues - off 25 percent - $8.1 million
7. Muppets From Space - 2265 venues - new - $7.5 million
8. The Wood - 1191 venues - new - $6.8 million
t-9. The General's Daughter - 2258 venues - off 30 percent - $5.5 million
t-9. Star Wars: Episode One - The Phantom Menace - 1854 venues - off 27 percent - $5.5 million


E ME: You know the routine.