by David Poland

May 5 , 2000

Only six R-rated non-sequels have ever opened a three-day weekend with over $30 million, as opposed to 46 that have opened that big or bigger with a PG-13 or more lenient rating. Four of them can be explained as follows: Harrison Ford (Air Force One), Tom Cruise (Interview with the Vampire), Mel Gibson (Ransom), and Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan). Two offer hope for this weekend's release of Gladiator. Both Bram Stoker's Dracula and Sleepy Hollow were genre films that hit the mark. Three times in the last four years, movies in the same weekend in May opened with more than $40 million (Twister, Deep Impact and The Mummy). Steven Spielberg's company produced two of those three. But no R-rated film has ever opened at more than the $37.1 million of the mid-summer release, Air Force One.

What will it be? What will it be?

Jeff Wells first reported tracking in the mid-20s. Alex Ben Block says it could hit $30 million. Both Deep Impact and The Mummy reported 43 percent second-weekend drops with fairly subtle drops thereafter. If Gladiator opens to $30 million and holds decently, you're looking at about $130 - $140 million total gross. Gladiator cost at least $100 million to make. DreamWorks will spend at least $25 million to market the movie. The movie will net, at these numbers, about $70 million domestic, $80 million international and $60 million on video. $210 million in on a $125 million-plus investment. What is a blockbuster these days?

WEEKEND GUESSTIMATES

1. Gladiator - 2,938 venues - new - $33.7 million
2. U-571 - ? venues - off 35 percent - $7.9 million
3. I Dreamed of Africa - 2112 venues - new - $6.2 million
4. Frequency - ? venues - off 40 percent - $5.4 million
5. The Flintstones in Viva Rock Vegas - ? venues - off 45 percent - $5.8 million

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