I didn’t include the domestic video release of D-Tox in the count… but I had to include it.  It’s got to be baaaaaaaaad… sooooo bad!

The crowd is thinner, but only because all the dead weight has gone running for shelter.  I would say that it is very, very unlikely that there will be any less than four $100 million movies (domestic) coming out of this month.  Harry Potter, Die Another Day and Treasure Planet are mortal locks to hit nine figures.  Between The Santa Clause 2, I Spy, Eight Mile, Eight Crazy Days and Solaris, there should be at least one more.  If the two “eight’ movies succeed, look for an animated Eminem in “Eight Crazy Ass M-th-r-ucking Days With A Jew I Know From Down The Clock” for November 2003.

But seriously folks… the Universal horn blowers are working overtime on 8 Mile already. They really believe in the film. And they don't seem shy about suggesting the Eminem can plain draw a crowd and that he has the peanuts to pick up an Oscar nomination. As always, the proof is in the screening for moi… but they're not kidding and I don't want no cap up my tuchus.

Potter, Bond, Soderbergh, Sandler, Ice Cube, DePalma, Murphy, Egoyen, Eminem and a guy I am always rooting for, Michael Hoffman.  That is one busy month with, it seems, a little something for everyone.

The awards cluster fuck takes off!  Fifteen films of legitimate note are scheduled to arrive between Christmas Day and the 27^th.  Fifteen.  But it’s worse than that.  The first weekend of December has traditionally been a slot avoided by serious players, much like the weekend after Memorial Day.  But last year, Ocean’s Eleven changed that with a $38.1 million start.  This year, you have the very commercial sequel, Analyze That, the potentially commercial and critical success Adaptation, from Spike Jonze, Charlie Kaufman and Susan Orlean, staring Nic Cage and Meryl Streep and the awards hopeful Evelyn from UA, which hopes to be a return to form for Bruce Beresford and a box office draw with Bond (Pierce Brosnan) in a weightier role.

So, why is Columbia throwing Paul Thomas Anderson’s Punch Drunk Love, with Adam Sandler, into the fray against such an already crowded art market on the 11th?  Because they have the biggest commercial star and they want awards for the Cannes favorite… even though the film would be far more dominant in October.  That’s December for you.  It costs a huge amount to open and as often as not, a December release is a referendum on a film’s overt commerciality or it’s Oscar potential.

Jackie Chan meets J-Lo and Captain Piccard on weekend two, as three films that fit squarely into that overtly commercial designation arrive.  None of these films has any awards pretensions.  They are just there to make a buck.  And they seem to all have some mutual demographic goals.  Expect one of the films to move.  Disney is probably betting on Shanghai Knights to get an Owen Wilson boost from I Spy, so they won’t want to push it any further away.  And if I were Paramount, I would be moving Star Trek a week earlier, where their audience has little to choose from and already saw Solaris.   But the move to January could come from The Chambermaid, a J-Lo vehicle that could end up in the late January Wedding Planner slot that worked well for Sony and J-Lo before.  On the other hand, Adaptation is the only female-skewing film in the release date neighborhood.  So it could remain as solid counter-programming.  Tough call.

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers opens on Wednesday the 18^th.  Everything opening on the 20^th is niche, except for the Sandra Bullock/Hugh Grant comedy, Two Weeks Notice.  Miss Congeniality was a December hit and WB is going out a week earlier this time, again, looking for women to lead the way, as they did the week before Miss Congeniality two Decembers ago with What Women Want.  Given that Fox Searchlight is opening The Antwone Fisher Story at Toronto, don’t be surprised if Denzel’s directing debut ends up being a quality October release.

Christmas comes but once a year, but oy, is it coming this year!  Actually, I suspect that there will be a number of changes in the line-up before we get to December.  No one on the planet really believes that Miramax is going to open Gangs of New York against their own potential smash, Chicago AND the Spielberg/Hanks/DiCaprio thriller, Catch Me If You Can. (Note to Miramax… November 1 looks really good for an epic.  Grab the teens before they are off to see 8 Mile and grab the parents for two weeks before they are forced at gunpoint to see Mr. Potter, et al.) 

About Schmidt, Spider, The Pianist, The Hours and Gangs of New York are all films that are already in the can and positioning themselves in the Christmas cradle only for Oscaring reasons.  Assuming that Gangs moves, the have-it-all big box office and Oscar possibles are Catch Me If You Can and Chicago. 

I recently saw Chicago’s domestic trailer and the one-sheets.  I had already seen the foreign trailer and I’ll tell you… it could out Moulin Rouge Moulin Rouge for a wider audience.  Miramax is playing down the musical element, but when Richard Gere charms with All I Care About Is Love or Queen Latifah belts out When You’re Good To Mama or John C. Reilly becomes the ultimate Mr. Cellophane… this is a show where the music really moves the story and where the characters are really brought out by the music.  It’s more Pennies From Heaven or All That Jazz (the Fosse movie took its title from the song in this show, which he created with Kander & Ebb) than Moulin Rouge… more traditional.  But I now believe the casting of Renee Zellweger to be inspired and I am a believer until proven otherwise.

Miramax has high hopes for Begnini’s Pinocchio also, but… it’s Pinocchio.  The rest of the line-up, from all studios, is intriguing, if unclear.  Spike Lee, George Clooney’s directorial debut, James Foley, a Hitler mindfuck with John Cusack, Stephen Dalrdy’s dramatic follow-up to Billy Elliot with yet another Meryl Streep role and Fred Schepisi’s shot at getting that last Oscar nod for Kirk Douglas.

Phew!!! 

And there are a load of still unslotted films that are legitimate attention-getters that may well arrive on top of the loads of product already mentioned:  House of 1000 Corpses, The Life of David Gale, Hope Springs, The Guru, Below, The Reckoning, The Hunted, Hero, The Hard Word, City of Ghosts and Doctor Sleep.  That makes 95 likely for-real releases in just over 4 months.