2002 Fall Movie Preview at The Hot Button

It’s kind of a light fall for the studio before The Year Of The Comic takes over. (Can’t wait to see Jeff Godsick selling his movies in a spandex suit with a giant “J” on his chest!) Swimfan, The Transporter and Phone Booth are all films with the potential to make money and the potential to be lost in the shuffle. Only Solaris jumps out at you. I hope it’s great.

Fox Searchlight is actually busier than daddy-co, with five releases, including Antwone Fisher, a new Jim Sheridan movie, The Banger Sisters and Brown Sugar, all lead by One Hour Photo. In classic Fox style, the studio will push for Antoine Fisher and Robin Williams in One Hour Photo as underdog Oscar candidates and will wait until they know how Solaris is playing before getting too serious about an Oscar push for the Soderbergh film. They won’t waste the money if they don’t think they have a real good shot at the honey.

It's hard to imagine what clever obscenity Campbell Scott's glorious character in Roger Dodger would make of the talking vegetables of Jonah- A Veggie Tales Movie. But I would pay to see it. Artisan's team is still showing style and taste, even in hard times that have sent the company scurrying closer to their homevideo roots. Nonetheless, I am looking forward to their Standing in the Shadows of Motown doc… a great topic deserves a great doc.

The studio has nine movies on their fall schedule this year, with one surprisingly serious Oscar contender, The 25^th Hour, from Spike Lee and starring Edward Norton, about a man who is saying goodbye before heading to jail for seven years. The only other heavy film is Brad Silberling’s September release, Moonlight Mile, a drama about love and death and living again. Silberling showed skill in keeping City of Angels from being obnoxiously maudlin, so I have hope for this melodrama as well.

The rest of the line-up is classic Disney. There are two animated films… the Miyazaki film, Spirited Away and the more traditional Treasure Planet. There are two sequels – Shanghai Knights and The Santa Clause 2. Sweet Home Alabama is the feel-good girl comedy for adults and kids and Tuck Everlasting is the feel-good girl comedy for kids and some adults.

It’s a quiet year for the studio overall. The three-film fall is more of the same. But the studio is hoping to go three-for-three and it may do just that. DreamWorks is aiming younger than originally intended with The Tuxedo, but the strategy might work in a Disney-esque way. The Ring is the wildcard, with Gore Verbinski getting back to his more exotic instincts after missing the boat with The Mexican. And who would ever think to bet against Catch Me If You Can? Only a true maroon. It looks like Road to Perdition will take up most of the studio’s late fall focus, as they ready an Oscar run. But Catch Me If You Can could be self-perpetuating gold, slotting in as this year’s commercial/creative light in Oscar’s eyes.

Universal’s slightly renamed art arm will be focusing on Polanski’s The Pianist and its Oscar potential. They have a hand in Solaris, but it looks like Fox will be toeing the line on that one… if it hits, watch the Titanic-like tug-of-war for credit.

The Canadian distributor has nine films set for the fall… but who knows what will actually happen? It’s an interesting line-up, but probably not interesting enough. The Grey Zone is a good film, but with everything going on in the Middle East, who knows whether audiences will be willing to go through the jewish holocaust, particularly with Tim Blake Nelson demanding that we all take responsibility for our actions. Max has John Cusack, but a Hitler doodle is not likely to be too popular. And everything else is a step away from the video store, seems to me. Maybe the Foley will shock… he has Dustin Hoffman, Paul Giamati and Rachel Weisz to play with.

The studio mixes the big gun (Bond) with a lot of good little films c/o Bingham Ray’s UA art division. MGM could hit with the urban comedy Barbershop, which is pleasing a number of people who are getting early looks. And the studio hopes that A Few Good Years will be the Kirk Douglas Oscar bait that Miramax’s Diamonds failed to be a few years ago. But the only real Oscar contender on their list is UA’s Evelyn,.. or not.

This is the Weinstein time of year. Not only does Miramax have 13 films scheduled for the fall… they have 19 more films that are potential late entries. No one else boasts a list of directors like Miramax. Kapur, Shekar, Tykwer, Taymor, Egoyen and Scorsese is an arthouse dream team. Add in Stephen Daldry, George Clooney, Roberto Begnini and Rob Marshall and it gets even more interesting.

Every fall, Miramax’s Oscar strategy is always a popular conversation. This year, they truly seem to have too many legitimate contenders. Chicago and Gangs of New York are both big, for-real contenders. Frida, which may be too artsy for Harvey, comes from a director who had a come-down on Broadway with The Painted Bird and who may lose a step from Titus with Frida. But I won’t be betting against her. Ararat, The Hours and Pinocchio may well be in the running for awards other than Best Picture.

I’m rooting for Waking Up in Reno because I am rooting for the director, Jordan Brady, who is fighting to get his indie film An American Girl distribution as well. I haven’t seen other, but Jordan has been smart enough to surround himself with good people and eventually, he will find a win.

The big question for the studio continues to be the care and handling of Gangs of New York. The film will be released internationally in October. A Christmas release seems insane. I am told that Disney brass is dead set against any move to 2003. So it seems that October or November is calling. Will the studio sneak the film in Toronto? We’ll see. If so, it will be the hottest ticket in town for journalists.

The major mini-major has five releases slated, but only three really mean anything. The Friday franchise is real and Friday After Next is likely to be another cash cow. About Schmidt is from Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor and is a great movie that may well win Jack Nicholson another Oscar… even if it is a little too little to be a legitimate Best Picture contender. And then there is the Lord of the… `nuff said.

Paramount has become the most predictable studio in town. And things don't change this fall with two subsidiary films, one from MTV and the other from Nickelodeon, a Next Generation Star Trek movie and The Core, their sleeper no-name actioner from the land of Armageddon/Deep Impact.

But the studio does have two cards up their sleeves that they hope turn out to be aces. First, there is Narc from writer/director Joe Carnahan. You may remember Carny from Blood, Bullets, Gas & Octane, a super-low budget film that still managed to make a splash (a bloody one) a couple of years back. I wasn't the biggest fan of the film, but I am a Joe Carnahan fan, so I am rooting for this one to step up like Paramount hopes it will.

And then there is the studio's one real Oscar movie, The Hours. Apparently they put a sign on the soundstage door that said, "If you haven't been nominated, stay away!" Meryl Streep (again!), Julianne Moore, Nicole Kidman, Ed Harris and Toni Collette, directed by Stephen Daldry.

Engage!

The studio has ten films slotted into the fall season, starting with the “urban” release, Love & A Bullet, which will likely drown in late August apathy (not the studio’s… ours). After a summer of massive popcorn flicks, the studio’s fall is mostly aimed at your mind. Mandoki’s Trapped, the Eddie Murphy/Owen Wilson I Spy and The Chambermaid are potentially highly commercial product that will take some selling… none of them really has a built-in audience, even though I Spy is a TV retread.

But the Academy bait is actually strong from Columbia and it’s non-Classics subsidiaries (Sony Classics gets it’s own place at the table.) Adaptation and Punch-Drunk Love are potentially commercial movies from arthouse directors. Columbia hasn’t had these kind of filmmakers bellying up to their bar since Jim Brooks brought along Cameron Crowe. The numbers are unlikely to be huge, but it will still feel good.

The studio of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon comes into this fall season with the new Zhang Yang, the new Almodovar, the new Cronenberg and Paul Schrader’s take on Bob Crane’s kinky behind-the-scenes life, Auto Focus. It’s an intriguing line-up, albeit rather dark. Almodovar has been pretty popular come awards time and Auto Focus… we’ll see.

The studio has a kind of languorous fall to come. Red Dragon, The Truth About Charlie and 8 Mile all look like good films that have solid commercial prospects. But so far, the studio is staying out of the December quagmire.

Michael Hoffman is one of the few great farce directors in Hollywood these days, but The Emperor’s Club (formerly The Palace Thief) is, it seems, mostly a drama… even if the studio’s preview reel offers a comedy scene.

And the only film that might end up with a December berth is The Life of David Gale, from director Alan Parker and starring Kevin Spacey, Laura Linney and Kate Winslet. It’s the story of an anti-death penalty activist who ends up being sentenced to death. Heavy! But is it good enough? Things are good enough at the studio that they don’t have to chase Oscar with a weak sister like The Shipping News or, uh, K-Pax.

The studio that will release at least 27 films this year will release 11 of them this fall. The only sure bet $100 million-plus release is Harry Potter. The other contenders are Analyze That and Two Weeks Notice. The only real Oscar contender is Gods and Generals… but it is really a TNT movie getting a theatrical release. I love Robert Duvall, but as the biggest name in the film, it’s an uphill battle (no pun intended).

The Antonio Banderas/Lucy Lui spy flick, Ballistic, is the wild card for the studio. A true, “I won’t know until I see it” situation. Dark Castle has another creature feature, Ghost Ship, which will work its Halloween niche. I hope Welcome to Collinwood is a lot of fun. And I’m thrilled to see Brian De Palma back doing what he does best in Femme Fatale… abusing and terrorizing women and the men who get aroused by them. Not that there’s not everything wrong with that.

n conclusion, it’s going to be an interesting ride. The big movies (Potter and LOTR) are so big that even Bond has to comfort itself by lurking in their shadows. But the seeds of years past seem to be blossoming in some areas. Gangs of New York, Chicago, Spider, The Pianist, About Schmidt, Adaptation, Punch-Drunk Love, Frida, Spirited Away, Auto Focus, The Ring, Solaris, The Truth About Charlie, Femme Fatale, 8 Mile, Confessions of A Dangerous Mind, The new LOTR and more. That’s a lot of movies to really be excited about. I can hardly wait.

E ME: Let me know what you think of the fall preview. Agree, disagree or just add to the conversation.