The Hot Button by David Poland

Friday, 7 August 1998

WEEKEND PREVIEW

Could Saving Private Ryan win the trifecta? It's gonna be close. Assuming a 25 percent drop for the film, DreamWorks is looking at about $17.7 million this weekend, bursting through the $100 million tape. But will that be enough to beat Halloween: H20? I don't think so. I Know What You Did Last Summer opened with almost $16 million last year, and Scream 2 started at $34 million. I say H20 takes first place with $25 million, splitting those two films right down the middle. (It scares me to go so high, but at least Harvey Weinstein won't be chasing me around with a knife and an inverted William Shatner mask.)
The rest of the top five is also going to be interesting. What will The Parent Trap's legs look like (and will Jeremy Irons be attracted to them)? Can Nicolas Cage open Snake Eyes despite bad reviews and an extremely unclear ad campaign? And what about Mary? I think Cage is good for $10 million, which will be enough to give Snake Eyes third place. There's Something About Mary lost 13 percent last week after losing 8 percent the week before, so what's my estimate? Eighteen percent, $8.947 million and fourth. Why so many digits? Because I'm estimating a 20 percent loss for The Parent Trap, leaving the film with $8.918 million and fifth place. I could be a little off on either, but the duo should keep the race tight.
The second five features a battle between Cinderella and Keyser Soze. I liked The Negotiator all right, but with a surprisingly weak $10 million to start last weekend, I smell a dropper. On the other hand, Ever After seems to be building, especially now that Fox has finally given the movie an ad campaign that celebrates Ever After and not Romeo & Juliet. A 15 percent drop for Drew and Co. means $7.2 million and sixth. A 35 percent drop for Samuel L., Kevin S. and their wacky movie hair means $6.6 million and seventh. Filling out the spots are The Mask of Zorro (another 38 percent drop, another $5.2 million), Lethal Weapon 4 (another 40 percent drop, another $4.7 million) and Armageddon (a 35 percent drop, a $4.9 million weekend). BASEketball should fall a sterling 50 percent to grab another $1.5 million as the film makes a run at the $7 million mark.
THE GOOD: Joel Silver has been crowing to the trades that Lethal Weapon 4 will be "The biggest Lethal ever!" That inspired a look back. Eleven years ago, Lethal Weapon was considered one of the biggest hits of the year and changed the action movie business forever. It made $65 million domestic. The next year, Joel Silver and Lawrence Gordon pushed it even further with Die Hard, which maxed out at $81 million domestic. Seems like a long time ago now, huh? Silver is likely wrong, at least as far as America goes. LW4 is unlikely to pass LW3's $147 million take. It should max out at around $135 million. But the foreign business could be higher than ever with Jet Li in the film. So now you can tell your younger friends in your best old man imitations, "When I was a kid, way back in '87, $65 million was real money. Yeah. We didn't even have THX. Just Dolby. Those were the days."
THE BAD: I finally saw Lolita a few days ago. The film reaffirmed my earlier suspicions that the failure of the film to get American distribution was about the threat of a non-commercial $58 million film and not so much about fear of controversy. (Message to Mr. Lyne: Everyone says "I loved it" then decides not to make an offer when they are dealing with someone they want to work with in the future). But, more so, the film was not faithful to the book. Perhaps that would have been a better and more dangerous picture. For me, the Nabakov novel is a black, black comedy with an anti-hero who keeps berating himself verbally but keeps doing what he knows to be wrong with a mischievous grin. And when it gets ugly, it gets ugly, not melancholy. He's a funny man, that Humbert Humbert, not some maudlin guy with a kink. Irons has often been better. Melanie Griffith never was given room to work her peculiar charms. And Dominique Swain was fine except when she has to cry. One last thing: Why did I have to see Frank Langella naked again? Can't the guy keep it in his pants?
THE UGLY: One last word on the Ben Affleck rant. Most of the mail ran against Ben, even before readers saw Mr. Showbiz's response. In fact, even Ben fanatics on the View Askew site found the interview transcript a bit shocking in light of his vitriol attack on Jeff Wells. Of course, on the flip side, as a couple of you pointed out, Mr. Showbiz is running nothing on this on their site, most likely because Mr. Showbiz, like Miramax, E! Online and so much of the civilized (if you can call it that) world is owned by the Mouse House. (That's Disney, for those of you who are literal minded.)
THE CHAT: Wondering whether you'll get to talk to a fabulous babe this weekend? Interested in meeting a nice young man with a glamorous career? Well, come to today's chat and meet Natasha Gregson Wagner and director Jesse Peretz of first love, last rites. At 5:00 p.m. ET/2:00 p.m. PT/10:00 p.m. GMT at Yahoo! Chat.
TWO MOVIES EQUAL: There's Something About Mary + Halloween: H20 = There's Something About H20. John Hughes writes and directs this morality tale for pre-teens about the uses of water in uncomfortable social situations. Watch Ben Stiller as he washes something really gross off his ear. Watch Cameron Diaz wash that same stuff out of her hair. Anticipate the terror as Ben Stiller washes his hands after urinating and calmly avoids catching his manhood in his zipper. With special guest star Janet Leigh getting killed in a shower. (She had sex. No, Mother! She must die. No. No! ) And Jamie Lee Curtis as the woman who kicks Matt Dillon's butt.
BAD AD WATCH: Chris sent this one in : "Speaking of pull-quotes, a decent movie, Mrs. Winterbourne, with Ricki Lake and Brendan Fraser contains quotes from Jeanne Wolf, Ron Brewington and 'Paul Wander' (yes, they misspelled the critic from the prestigious WBAI radio station) on the box." I'm sure that some of you would doubt the "decent movie" tag, but the unintentional diss against Mr. Wunder (I wunder how he got the job.) made me laugh out loud.
READER OF THE DAY: "Mr. Poland, in your August 3 The Hot Button column, you wrote, 'The trailer for the new Jean-Claude Van Damme movie, Knock Off.... The herky-jerky editing appeared to be demanded by the herky-jerky 'Look, I'm just like John Woo without the talent' shooting style of the latest wannabe.' This director is not the latest John Woo-wannabe, he is the longtime Woo collaborator, Tsui Hark. Tsui has cowritten A Better Tomorrow II, produced Just Heroes, BT II and The Killer. He also directed the inferior non-Woo project, but still better than thousands of American movies, A Better Tomorrow III. I think in terms of cinematography and getting the most out of his actors, this is his best film, lacking only a decent script. He also has directed Jet Li in such films as The Master, the Once Upon a Time in China series and some of The Swordsman sequels.
"In Knock Off, Jean-Claude plays a fashion designer who must join forces with a CIA agent to combat terrorism, thus the title (groan!). Not that I have seen the trailer for Knock Head, er, Off, but after enduring Double Team, I think Tsui is doing whatever he can to stay in the U.S., even if it means having to bow to Van Clamme (double groan!). But he is not, repeat not, some Johnny-come-lately like Fuqua or any other Propaganda Films-trained or music video director. Respectfully, Kjeld B."

E ME: Point taken. I still haven't seen anyone do Woo nearly as well as Woo.