Friday, 14 August 1998

WEEKEND PREVIEW

This weekend, Private Ryan fights The Avengers head on and will go against the Groove. But, as in week's past, the main competition for Saving Private Ryan will be itself. A 30 percent drop will take the film to about $12.2 million to close on the $125 million mark in its fourth weekend, putting it ahead of every four-week gross of this summer except for Armageddon. ("But with only 20 percent of the hype!") The Avengers and How Stella Got Her Groove Back should both be able to top the WWII saga this weekend. But neither film is likely to get anywhere near the Private in the long haul. But I think that Stella will be the surprise opener of the summer with as much as $15 million this weekend. And The Avengers gross will be seen as a surprise at any figure other than about $17 million. I think the surprise will be bad with about $13 million. So, Stella, Steed, Spielberg go 1-2-3. Halloween: H20 should hold better than Snake Eyes in the four and five slots. A genre strong 35 percent drop for H20 should drop it to $10.5 million. And a 45 percent drop for Snake Eyes should leave it in fifth with about $9 million.

In sixth, There's Something About Mary should continue to hold its own (or zip its own), falling to a 15 percent fall to $8.2 million as the film passes the $90 million mark and keeps going strong. (It takes a licking and keeps on sticking. Gross, huh?) Return to Paradise should be able to ride the wave of what seems like general enthusiasm, even if it is weighed down by the writers whose names are attached to much of it so far (THB 08/10). (Bill Higgins of the L.A. Times copped a great joke at the premiere, where he overheard it called "Midnight Expresso." I say $7.5 million and seventh place. Ever After, Fox's other leggy babe, also should make a glass slipper out of a sow's ear (a mixed metaphor that really makes no sense here, but might amuse your friends and neighbors) and sweep just 15 percent under the rug (closer to making sense there) to add $6.5 million to the dowry.

The Parent Trap is also holding nicely (It better. See THE UGLY, below) and should take eighth with a 25 percent loss (that's 12.5 percent for each twin) for a $6.1 million take. Ninth and tenth will be battled for among The Negotiator, The Mask of Zorro and Armageddon. One will fall off the list for good. Maybe two, if Air Bud can manage a $4 million weekend, but I don't see that happening. Too much strong kids product out there right now. Whoever takes it, the bottom two slots should be worth about $3.7 million each. And on the limited release front, look for The Slums of Beverly Hills to open strong.

THE GOOD: This is a good time to be checking out the art houses. I still haven't had a chance to check out Pi, but I haven't heard anyone, not even those who don't much care for it, suggest that it isn't worth seeing if you are a serious moviegoer. The aforementioned The Slums of Beverly Hills is buzz city. Floating around the U.S. is the documentary about the making of From Dusk Til Dawn called Full Tilt Boogie. Not the greatest docu on film ever made, but well worth a look if you want to know about the people who work behind the scenes on movies. There's also the sexy first love, last rites with SPR's Giovanni Ribisi and the fabulous Natasha Gregson Wagner, Minnie Driver in The Governess, and the raunchy Christina Ricci double dip, The Opposite of Sex and Buffalo 66.

THE BAD: Why is Miramax releasing Air Bud 2? What' up with that? Is Bud going to be doing heroin and biting a slumming Sly Stallone? Will he learn how to bark the "f" word? Is this going to be an edgy sexual drama about Air Bud and his roving eye for bitches other than Mrs. Air Bud? Will he get hooked on the scent of the kind of poop that's "just not good for him." And most importantly, will Warner Bros, pick up the dog for Lethal Weapon 5 now that he's "on the cutting edge," and will Air Bud bark in that film, "I'm getting too old for this series."

THE UGLY: When I heard this, I experienced, in the words of the ads for Disturbing Behavior, "A new generation of terror." How much do you think that Disney could have spent on The Parent Trap? Keep in mind that the average studio film costs, in production, about $23 million. Also keep in mind that Disney made Big Business with twins of Better Midler and Lily Tomlin for under $40 million. So, $40 million you guess? Ha! $50 million? Reasonable. But WRONG! How about $60 million? Could they have spent $60 million on a movie with not-terribly-difficult effects and almost all interiors? They could have. But they didn't. $70 million? That's a whole lot for The Parent Trap, huh? A lot. But they spent more! $85 million. They spent $85 million to make The Parent Trap! (One estimate has it at $90 million, but I would have to kill myself if I believed that!)

Remember when I wrote a few weeks ago that Nancy Meyer couldn't direct? I guess I was wrong. She can't STOP directing! I liked the movie, even if it was too long, but $85 million? I can't stop saying it out loud. It's like a psychotic L.A. mantra of excess. "85 million dollars for The Parent Trap, double-D implants, a Volkswagen Bug in every color, $85 million dollars for The Parent Trap, double-D implants, a Volkswagen Bug in every color. $85 million dollars for The Parent Trap, double-D implants, a Volkswagen Bug in every color."

THE CHAT: Blade-O-Vision continues next week as I take a bite out of the L.A. Premiere. Keep an eye out for promos here and on Yahoo!

TWO MOVIES EQUAL: Air Bud: Golden Receiver + Snake Eyes = Ground Bud: Golden Snake. Nic Cage is the voice of Ground Bud, the first animated feature by Brian DePalma. Ground Bud slithers through Las Vegas, but he just can't get out of the way of the two-footed mammal power structure. So, after being bit in the back by his closest snake friend, Ground Bud takes refuge in the pants of our of work TV actor Joey Shibano when Joey's manhood stops working. Look for the 43-minute long uncut shot (an animation breakthrough) of Ground Bud doing a dance of love for the short, busty actress of DePalma's current obsession. Co-starring the voices of John Lithgow as The Psycho, Will Smith as the latest hot, young actor sucked into the allure of working with DePalma even though he hates the script, and Traci Lords as the former sex bomb turned G-rated movie mom.

JUST WONDERING: Has anyone else noticed that Donal Logue (Blade, first love, last rites, Metro) is the actor that Quentino Tarantino would like to be if QT could actually act?

BAD AD WATCH: I still can't get over Return To Paradise and what scares me is that they only got pull-quotes from MOST of the hacks in the pull-quote business. What did the ones who aren't quoted saying? Or, with 14 people quoted, was the competition for hyperbole just too high for some of the less talented butt-kissers? That Ron Brewington/Marilyn Beck headline is one for the ages. (Maybe we should start a Bad Ad Watch Hall of Fame. Would Ron Brewington or Paul Wunder be the first winner? Hmmm.) That's not to say that Snake Eyes is a slouch this week. Siegel Entertainment Syndicate, LAFM, UPN-TV, Camden Courier Post and NY1 News ain't a bad shot at critical snake eyes. And Air Bud is fabulously bad with the Kansas City Sun, "Jeanne Wolf's Hollywood" and Fox-TV leading the way. All in all, a great weekend for bad ads.

READER OF THE DAY: I had to cut the explanation for each film on Julian C's indie "must-see" list after pick No. 4, so give him a break. He knows that some of this is a little controversial. But here he goes: "My choices of the top ten indie films of the last five years that everyone should have seen starts with an easy No. 1: The Daytrippers. Parker Posey, Hope Davis, Liev Shrieber, a film that shows exactly the sort of things some indies are made for: to tell the stories that don't have enough explosions or one-liners to make it as a full-fledged studio film.

No. 2 is also not that difficult: Waiting for Guffmann was hilarious, and revived my faith in the mockumentary. Oddly enough, Parker Posey was in it, too.

No. 3 is my last Parker Posey pick, but honestly, for awhile, she was everywhere, and she does light up the screen. The House of Yes proved the impossible: that Tori Spelling can actually act, among other things. Oh, and also that there are still unexplored angles to the JFK murder.

No. 4 is a cheat --after all, Scream is a film you're likely to have seen. Coming under Dimension Films, however, means it technically qualifies as an indie and I know some people who still haven't seen it. Which is just plain wrong.

"No. 5: The Castle.

"No. 6: Muriel's Wedding.

"No. 7: 2 Days in the Valley.

"No. 8: Everyone Says I Love You.

"No. 9: 'Kids in the Hall''s Brain Candy.

"No. 10: Welcome to the Dollhouse and Swingers."

E ME:Your thoughts on the new release, your thoughts on indies, your thoughts on any wacky thing you want to write about. Just do it.