Weekend, 15 August 1998

NEWS BY THE NUMBERS

This has been a truly worthless week for movie news. In fact, even the Tuesday and Thursday news columns (THB 8/11, THB 8/13) really had to scrape for any actual news. So, I've decided to use today's column to take a look at the news provided by another set of numbers. The summer box office. These figures are from May 1 until August 9 and are provided by Exhibitor Relations. It's a heavy read, so take your time.

10. The Indie Indies: It was an OK summer for the true independents. But there aren't many left and the failure of any of these films to pass the $3 million mark shows just how hard it is to get screens and to create real hits outside of the club. The over-a-million-bucks club was made up of ¹ (Artisan) and Buffalo 66 (Lions Gate), who will fight for the top spot at somewhere around $2 million, a fight that ¹ looks likely to win. Gramercy, now waiting-to-a-be-spun-off arm of Universal, can't seem to decide if it's an indie or a mini-major, but The Last Days of Disco's $3 million take is too mini to be major. Stratosphere and Rialto also made some noise. But the only great winner among indies was the biggest, not as a company; but in the size of their film. MacGillvray Freeman Distribution's IMAX epic, Everest, pretty much self-distributed to as many as 80 screens, continues to rack up impressive, million-dollar-a-week numbers. But is that really indie film? Moreover, where will indie film go now that the they've lost their independence?

9. Crap Ars Crap: If you don't know the classic MGM motto, Ars Gratis Ars (art for art's sake), now you can understand my variation on it. The studio tried to remold itself as the next Miramax by hiring Lindsey Law, formerly of PBS films, but apparently didn't hear all the complaints the filmmakers had back in New York. Disturbing Behavior and Dirty Work were the final straw in a summer that saw only two new releases and four holdovers, totalling $32 million domestically to date. Now, the grand studio of days gone by is about to be sold to a major for its library (which is owned by our parent company, Turner) and its name recognition value. Which reminds me of a conversation I had with a studio publicist recently in which I mentioned that the Paramount lot used to be the RKO lot (you know, the studio that made Citizen Kane). Her response? "What's RKO?" Time is not on our side.

8. Summer Slowdown: New Line essentially stayed out of the summer maelstrom this year. Things crank back up next week with Blade, but that is then and this is now. The studio managed almost $37 million since the month of May with just Woo and the Gone with the Wind re-issue. Those two did only $14 million. Not overwhelming. But Lost in Space was good for $11 million summer dollars and The Wedding Singer still grabbed over $5 million, despite being released all the way back in February. But basically, the studio was not a player this summer. Nor did they crush a lot.

7. Major Malfunction: The first major on the round-up is Universal and it was not a pretty summer. I will say at the top that I do see the studio moving in the right direction after a long time running in the wrong direction. But that didn't help the two quality films that they had this summer. One that couldn't be expected to get a big audience anyway and then was killed by critics and the fact that it was too bad a trip (Fear and Loathing In Las Vegas), and the other that critics deservedly loved, but audiences couldn't weren't excited about (Out of Sight). Then there was Black Dog and BASEketball. Why beat two dead horses? Holdovers Mercury Rising (what does that title mean again?) and Primary Colors (a great movie killed by its subject's real libido) didn't help much. The studio did just under $75 million to date and even with October films, didn't come close to the $80 million mark. That makes them the only major not to hit at least $200 million. Ugh.

6. Dreamy Summer: DreamWorks gets its own number as a major mini-major. Calculating its numbers is kind of odd, since DreamWorks has distribution partners on all of their films. As the Paramount/Fox internal battle on Titanic shows, these relationships can be complicated, so for simplicity's sake, I will let Exhibitor Relations be my guide. DreamWorks stormed the beaches this summer with Saving Private Ryan and Small Soldiers, combining for over $150 million so far. Ryan is still a threat to be the only $200 million of this summer. Holding over from April, Paulie ponied up (am I mixing my animal metaphors too much?) another $15.6 million to the growing studio. Add in the near $140 million that Deep Impact made domestically (it's doing well overseas, too) and DreamWorks had the strongest summer of any studio on a gross per-picture basis. Not a very good way of calculating a winner (and adding in Deep Impact would be cheating), but just a well-spun figure to ponder.

5. Oh, Brother: With Lethal Weapon 4, a $67 million showing from A Perfect Murder and $32 million in holdover business from City of Angels, Warner Bros.'s total for the summer ($275 million) doesn't look so hideous. But the picture gets uglier in a hurry as you open your iris. The studio had six pictures released this summer. Only two managed to hit $25 million during our survey period. (The Negotiator got there on Monday's grosses and should add another $10-$15 million,) Two didn't get to $7 million. (In WB's defense, it's my understanding that they didn't pay P&A for Tarzan, so that is not as big a loss as Almost Heroes). Only LW4 will pass $70 million. And April holdover, Major League III, totalled out at $3.6 million, just missing status as another summer disaster. Worst of all, the success of Lethal Weapon 4 is offset by its cost, which was exorbitant, even by Lethal standards, because the film was rushed into production and through post. That led to such bizarre expenditures as $10 million for Joe Pesci for about two weeks of actual work. And it's about to get worse. The Avengers just opened.

4. Oh, Sony Boy: Godzilla. That sums up Sony's summer. Not tragic in reality, but troubling in perception. And the studio's inability to get The Mask of Zorro revved up to $100 million status, despite raves from lots of real critics, has to make you shake your head. The studio released only four films in the May-Aug. 10 time period and none is likely to add red ink to the studio's bottom line. And those films were buoyed by almost $40 million in holdover business and a strong showing by Sony Classics, the best performing art division (if you take Dimension and H20 away from Miramax as "art.") But, in the end, it's a kind of vague sigh of a summer at Sony with their two big guns underperforming by at least $50 million each. And $320 million (plus an early loss in the Battle for Bond) leaves Sony as the big non-story of this summer.

3. Mounting Others: Paramount was the third-best performing studio of the summer with more than $320 million to date. Of course, the studio only had three actual releases this summer: Deep Impact, The Truman Show and Snake Eyes. Only The Truman Show was theirs and theirs alone. Deep Impact was a co-production and distribution split with DreamWorks and Snake Eyes will be a Disney film overseas. Holdover duds, The Odd Couple 2 and Twilight, added about $5 million and Grease another $1 million, with Titanic floating almost $37 million this summer. So, the gross numbers are pretty impressive, while the real bottom line isn't. Not that the studio had a bad summer. Just a minimal risk, minimal reward summer.

2. Dizzy Disney: The fact that "Spin City" is a Disney TV series, makes the irony almost too much to bear. Disney had the highest-grossing summer with a $502 million take, almost $100 million higher than Fox ($140 million higher when adding dueling art divisions Miramax and Fox Searchlight). But the studio clearly did not win the summer war. With the only significant holdover business coming from He Got Game ($22 million), six summer releases generated $480 million so far. Those films cost approximately $550 million to produce. That's before Prints & Advertising. And I'm estimating in a fairly conservative way. Miramax contributed just over $45 million, primarily on the strength of Halloween: H20 and holdovers Sliding Doors and Good Will Hunting (the trio was good for just over $40 million). The other $4 million or so came from eight titles, the biggest draw being Hav Plenty, which managed $2.3 million. Harvey taketh and Harvey giveth away. Summer is not a Miramax stronghold in any case, nor has it ever meant to be one. But overall, the story is a tough one. Civilians have a hard time understanding how $70 million and $170 million grosses can be disappointments. Disney offers the explanation. It was a very high risk summer with high grosses. But when the profit picture, which includes foreign, fully develops, it's going to be close to a break even summer.

1. Stupid Like A Fox: The Box Office King of Summer 1998 is Fox. After a horrible summer of 1997 and a tough winter and spring of 1998, the studio rebounded with fiscal conservatism and a host of projects that took audiences and pundits by surprise. As I wrote above, Fox was No. 2 in overall gross, with "just" $398 million, plus $12.5 million in holdover business and only $3.2 million from Fox Searchlight in a weak summer performance after a blazing success with The Full Monty over the last year. But out of six new releases this summer, only two are in danger of being in the red, Bulworth and Hope Floats. And Hope Floats, which will top out domestically at about $60 million is right at the line. The X-Files movie is over that profit line, but just marginally. And the trio of Dr. Dolittle, There's Something About Mary and Ever After all look like winners. In fact, the Doc and Mary will likely fight it out with Saving Private Ryan for the crown as Most Profitable Film of this summer. (Ryan will likely win.) To give you a comparison which will explain why Fox wins over Disney, the films that generated $398 million domestic for Fox cost about $325 million before P&A. And all the films, except maybe Hope Floats, should be very successful in foreign markets. The comedies are broad enough to travel and the dramas have, at least, European appeal. And next summer, with Star Wars: The Prequel creating a crater around Memorial Day, that should easily outdo any asteroid movie and make irradiated dinosaurs extinct again, Fox could be on top again next year.

---

READER OF THE DAY & E ME: Sorry, no room at the column today. But please write with your observations on the summer that was. (And is.)