The Hot Button by David Poland

Friday, 28 August 1998

WEEKEND PREVIEW

Another not terribly interesting weekend at the box office. I expect Blade to drop about 45 percent to $9.4 million, which is not unusual for an action film after a particularly strong opening. Saving Private Ryan should continue apace, taking casualties of another 25 percent this weekend to add $7.6 million and pass the $150 million mark as it doggedly chases after Armageddon for top summer honors. There's Something About Mary should once again find 15 percent fewer people stuck to their seats, with a $6.5 million weekend to pass the $110 million mark on its way to easily being the most profitable movie of the summer. That is even if it doesn't kick butt overseas, though it well might. Broad humor plays better than verbal comedy worldwide, but where will this stalwart trio rank?
That would be up to 54. People are buzzing about the film even though some of the buzz is disappointing. Can an R-rated drama with a relatively low teen profile (despite an MTV premiere show) and mediocre reviews top $10 million? I must admit, I am pretty much guessing here. I'd probably be willing to eat a shoe or something if the film did better than $15 million. And a $5 million opening seems like way too little. So, I guess $10 million is about right. First place. Fifty percent drop-off in week two. Probably. Don't bet the house on this one.
On the other hand, $4 million seems like the limit for Why Do Fools Fall in Love. One hates to see Warner Bros. taking hit after hit for releasing bomb after bomb, but what can you do? (I'm dead serious. More below in The Bad.) Fifth place. Four million takes fifth place because, except for Ever After and The Parent Trap, I expect them all to drop by more than 40 percent. Ever After should continue strong with little competition for the young romantic crowd. Thirty percent off, $3.2 million, sixth place. Snake Eyes, 50 percent fall, $2.5 million, seventh place. Dance with Me and The Parent Trap should both be at $2.5 million for a seventh place tie, dropping 45 percent and 35 percent respectively. Dead Man on Campus can't fall much harder than 55 percent, can it? Two-point-one million for ninth. And Halloween: H20's 60 percent drop to $1.6 million should overcome The Avengers 65 percent fall to $1.3 million to steal that 10 spot. Boy, they must be proud of that!
THE GOOD: Great coverage by Bill Higgins of the L.A. Times of the 54 premiere. He got some really wonderful quotes. One premiere-goer called the film "strictly for the bridge and tunnel crowd," appropriating a tag made famous in Manhattan in the days of the real Studio 54. On the way to the party, which tried to recreate much of the sex and drugs glory of the '70s, many guests found themselves stuck outside, trying to convince doormen they were "on the list." There's not much that New Yorkers will endure and L.A. types won't, but waiting in line is one of them. I'm sure Miramax got some nasty calls Tuesday morning. A guest who did get in commented, "If you enjoy this, you didn't learn anything from the movie." Others complained that the limited concessions to the prevalent gay element in the club were tantamount to making a film about India while minimizing Hinduism. And last, but certainly not least, Higgins caught Allan Carr (the King of the Hollywood Queens) deadpanning, "This was a nice try, but they ain't making hedonism like they used to." Great.
THE BAD: As I wrote above, things at Warner Bros. are getting beyond amusing. It was funny for a while, but to see any studio this far in the toilet is bad for everyone. As far as theories floating around about a change at the top of a studio, riddle me this. Who is going to take over? Forget Barry Diller. Forget former Universal execs. High-ranking second tier execs at Fox, Disney and Sony have no real reason to leave, and Warner Bros. has no reason to feel encouraged about hiring anyone in that group from Paramount. MGM is a mess. Most of the former-exec-based production companies already have strong studio ties that would demand a Guber/Peters/Sony type buyout that no one's gonna go for. The studio was unable to get going with Superman Reborn or the fifth Batman movie (perhaps that one is for the best), but a solid sounding line-up is beginning to come into focus.
The Soldier trailer is out and getting mixed reactions, but there are two Tom Hanks movies due (You've Got Mail and The Green Mile). Analyze This with Billy Crystal and Robert DeNiro smells like a hit. Jim Carrey wil get animated in The Incredible Mr. Limpet. And next summer's second most anticipated film (after Star Wars: Episode 1) will be The Wild Wild West from Will Smith and director Barry Sonnenfeld. The current regime may well stick around for lack of a quality alternative. And Hanks, Carrey, Crystal, DeNiro and Smith may lead them all the way through the storm. In other words, to paraphrase The Avengers (and that guy, Will something) this winter may be the winter of WB's discontent. [Editor's Note: Time Warner, which owns Warner Bros. and Turner Broadcasting is the parent company of roughcut.com.]
THE UGLY: Next week, the release of the Titanic video will easily outgross every film on the board.
FOUR MOVIES EQUAL: Why Do Fools Fall in Love + Waiting to Exhale + How Stella Got Her Groove Back + Soul Food = Why Do Fools Wait To Exhale When All They Need Is To Get Their Groove Back And Then Go Out For Soul Food Afterwards. Angela Bassett, Whitney Houston, Whoopi Goldberg and Vivica A. Fox star as the women on the verge of a nervous breakdown. Nia Long, Lela Rochon, Lisa Nicole Carson, Jada Pinkett Smith and Robin Givens as the young(er) babes. Debbie Morgan, Oprah Winfrey and Lynn Whitfield as the actresses who are forced to play older women because there aren't enough roles out there. And a bunch of guys who are great actors but can't get leads in studio movies because they are black costar as the interchangibly evil or incredibly sexy or completely emasculated men who love them all. And Halle Berry and Vanessa L. Williams as the white women.
JUST WONDERING: How much crap could a studio distribution division chuck if a studio distribution division could chuck crap? (I guess that might be rhetorical.)
BAD AD WATCH: Why Do Fools Fall in Love added "critical" quantity to their ads, but not quality. In addition to the wonderful Paul Wunder (No one quote that! It's a joke! Dammit! Wunder already has it up in his personal ad! Duh!), is George Pennacchio, an L.A. local charmer who is essentially an on-air flack, Neil Rosen of NY-1 News (When you hear it on NY-1, you've heard it on TV!), Bill Bregoli from Westwood One Radio (Is Mr. Movie Phone?) and last, but now becoming least, Jeffrey Lyons, who used to be a legitimate critic but seems to be becoming more and more the whore.
RADIO DAZE: For those of you in Los Angeles, I'll be making an appearance on Rod Lurie's KABC-970 radio show this Saturday. I'll be on about 5:00 p.m., so if you can't get to the chats, here's another medium you can try to find me on. We will be taking calls, so please don't embarrass me. Because, you know, I'm very shy.
READER OF THE DAY: Maniac writes: "I caught The X-Files movie last night and was quite surprised about how un-ambitious it was. It didn't try to introduce non-fans to every detail of the show or feel obligated to make unnecessary cameos for every little supporting character either (the hospital scene was very funny and not forced). While I have seen much better films in the last two years, this is the first movie since 1996 I've seen that has absolutely no flaws. Bean is a better movie. Bean has some flaws, though (it borrows too much from the show and has unnecessary nudity). The X-Files, on the other hand, has no minuses. The tension is high, but while there aren't a lot of scares, I don't find that to be a fault. It is such an intriguing movie with complex relationships (Mulder and Scully, Cigarette-Smoking man and Mitch Pileggi). The cinematography deserves an Oscar. I enjoyed it a lot, and I feel that it has no faults. It just simply missed the extra oomph that bumps a movie like Father's Day to a movie like Tron."

E ME: Well, Maniac shows us just how desperate he is for a good movie this late in the summer (not an X-Files insult, a point about going to see a two-month old film), and he finds a way to analogize Father's Day and Tron. I'm impressed. How about this for a query? What summer movies did you miss and feel like you should go and see now (if they can still be found in a theater). And what kept you from seeing them in the first place?