The Hot Button by David Poland

Friday, 4 September 1998

WEEKEND PREVIEW

Here's something that might surprise you. The movie that has had better legs than any movie this summer has never been No. 1 at the box office. Not once. Until this weekend. With the Jean-Claude Van Damme fodder Knock Off as the only new competition on the scene, I look for There's Something About Mary to drop off 15 percent (after actually picking up 9 percent last weekend) to a $7.1 million three-day/$8.9 million four-day weekend total to take first place. Won't the "Mary is the No. 1 movie in America" ads bring a smile to your face? Gotta tell you, I'll have my fingers crossed. All the films, including Mary, should have a deeper fall-off than last week, which seems to ride the wave of weak new films, the last week of summer vacation for lots of kids and some fresh advertising for some older films to surprisingly good numbers.
First to fall should be Blade, which I expect to cede the top slot and fall to second with a 40 percent drop to a $6.5 million three-day/$8.1 million four-day. Van Damme should knock off about $6 million/$7.5 million on bored moviegoers alone. Close behind, Saving Private Ryan will continue to storm the beaches, falling 29 percent to $5.8 million/$7.3 million as it storms past the $160 million mark. In fifth place, the carcass of 54 gets kicked around at the box office as the film kicks around the truth of the real 54, dropping 50 percent to $3.3 million/$4.1 million.
The second five should be significantly behind. Assuming Ever After continues its strong run, look for Drew to do $2.9 million/$3.6 million, passing the $50 million mark for its trouble. Snake Eyes should keep all but 40 percent of its winnings, as the film, perceived by most as a flop, continues to run neck-in-neck with Ever After. Of course, the cost of Snake Eyes was about double that of Ever After. Sixth place, $2.2 million/$2.8 million. In eighth and ninth, it's the tandem you've been waiting for, Why Do Fools Fall in Love and How Stella Got Her Groove Back. All that's missing are Nia Long and Jada Pinkett Smith. Fools fall 45 percent to $2.1 million/$2.6 million and Stella loses 45 percent of her groove to take $2 million/$2.5 million. And in 10th place, it's The Parent Trap (actually tying with Stella for ninth) with $2 million/$2.5 million in a 30 percent fall.
THE GOOD: The fall movie season starts next week. Well, kind of. Rounders makes its way to theaters with Matt Damon in full "smart, nice guy with a South Boston accent" style. It could beat Blade's $17 million opening, signaling that it's safe to open new films. On the other hand, Disney throws Simon Birch out to the wolves, knowing, I'm sure full well, that the film will be DOA. Otherwise, why would it be opening a film it likes against another films it likes (through its Miramax division), especially when they have similar target audiences? You know the answer. It wouldn't.
THE BAD: The only film to open wide on the first weekend of September last year was Fire Down Below, a Steven Seagal romp. It opened to $6.1 million and ended up with just over $16 million. I've got a bad case of Van Damme deja vu.
THE UGLY: Titanic fever is out of control! A 22-year-old San Franciscan knocked down his 19-year-old buddy, kicked him in the head and took his freshly purchased copy of Titanic late Monday night. The police said the assault was based on more than the video. The Hot Button respectfully disagrees. My guess is that the victim made the mistake of questioning why they waited on line for 24 hours to get the video when they could have, say, gotten a life.
TWO MOVIES EQUAL: On Monday, I forgot to finish the storyline for There's Something About 54, which inevitably would have something to do with "hair gel" and being a bartender at 54. For the sake of the kids, I'll move onto this weekend's newest release: Blade + Knock Off = Knock Off Blade. Jean-Claude Van Damme has the assignment. Beat Wesley Snipes or die trying to have your accent understood. Wesley takes Jean-Claude down for the count until Van Damme realizes that he is a real vampire and Wesley isn't a real vampire hunter. After all, his career keeps rising form the dead to suck some more blood and dollars from audiences.
JUST WONDERING: I hate to raise the ire of the Armageddon lovers out there, but has anyone else noticed that Armageddon, in 12th place, posted the second lowest drop of the Top 20 (16 percent) last weekend? With a box office total of $188.5 million, a new Disney target seems well within reach as does staying ahead of Private Ryan and hitting the $200 million mark. With the small weekly losses, which stick out like a sore thumb amongst other Top 20 films (many better liked, all less old) it can happen. Before Halloween. So, here is my prediction, long before it happens. Armageddon will be the only $200 million film of the summer. Believe it or not. Please feel free to write me and remind me to apologize if it doesn't, but with a target in sight, Disney magic seems to happen around this movie. Poof!
BAD AD WATCH: This week's bad ad comes from a critic who doesn't whore himself: J. Hoberman of The Village Voice. Actually, he wrote it himself in his column last week. "Leave town for a week and you never know what may happen. I can't say I mind seeing my name in movie ads but I was surprised to read myself credited with calling Your Friends and Neighbors 'a fascinating erotic comedy.' What I actually wrote was that Your Friends and Neighbors was 'a fascinatingly mean-spirited erotic comedy,' which is not only a less infelicitous use of the language but a better pull quote."
READER OF THE DAY: The Sag Man wrote: "In my opinion, this summer was the best thing that could have happened to the movie industry. With one over-hyped blockbuster (Godzilla) more or less failing, the other one (Armageddon) not being what you'd call an overachiever, two high-quality movies doing great business (Saving Private Ryan, The Truman Show) and a complete surprise hit maybe on its way to this summer's box office crown (There's Something About Mary), this summer gave a clear sign to the movie industry: the movie counts, not the hype. I don't say that I didn't like Armageddon (I loved it), and I'll probably like Godzilla, but it's good when they finally slow down with the hype. It doesn't help, it just raises people's expectations so much, that it's a sure thing they'll be pissed off by the movie. There are two signs that the industry already reacts to this: at first the complete no-hype (and I'm only speaking about ads, not about articles) surrounding Saving Private Ryan, and the total lack of ads for Star Wars: Episode 1. You may now say this movie already has a bunch of hype to deal with, but still Lucas could've started a massive Godzilla-like ad-campaign months ago. Maybe, and hopefully, Star Wars will completely change the business (once again): a moderate ad campaign, less screens on opening day than you'd expect, and it'll finally be the movie we're talking about, not the hype."

E ME: Do you think that Hollywood can stop hyping itself? Is it capable of such a feat?