The Hot Button by David Poland

Friday, 25 September 1998

WEEKEND PREVIEW

There is only one real question this weekend: Will Rush Hour hold onto 50 percent of its gross, 35 percent of its gross or 20 percent of its gross? In other words, is it Knock Off, Blade or There's Something About Mary? That's a question not only of percentage, but about how the film drew $33 million worth of customers last weekend. This weekend's drop-off should offer some insight. Me, I'm estimating a 30 percent loss for the film for another easy win with $23.1 million.
Ronin will be up there, though I'm pretty sure MGM/UA's cluttered, mysterious ad campaign will slow the film down. Fourteen million. By the way, despite last weekend's massive rush to the Chris and Jackie Show (A well-executed version of one of Hollywood's worst habits -- "Let's make 48 Hrs. with karate!" We will suffer more crap because of this film's success.), $14 million is a good opening for September. And $9 million is generous for Urban Legend, but that's what I think it will manage. Thanks to the inability of the film to stay on point, the ad campaign can't either. What was clearly a great idea for a horror movie is a dud. And if you don't believe me, I'll just paraphrase the film's tag line: "What you don't believe can bore you to death."
Whew! I Got past the first three films, but my enthusiasm for moving on brings me to the unfortunate quick demise of One True Thing. I expect a 35 percent fall for the Carl Franklin drama to fourth place and $4.29 million. I also expect the film to be one of those beloved-on-video retro hits when women don't have to fight with their male companions to see the film. (More below.) That should bring There's Something About Mary's habit (via Fox) of overestimating Sunday only to come back to a still-wonderful place on Earth Monday into clear focus. Why? Because the film will likely report a 13 percent fall on Sunday, taking fourth place with $4.9 million. But on Monday, the film should fall into a virtual tie with One True Thing with a final figure that's 23 percent off or $4.34 million. Keep an eye out.
As I was reminded in last week's reader's poll, not too many of us care what's happening with old, worn-out movies in the second half of the Top 10. That's probably more true when we have films under $1 million on the list, but it's also a sign that the information revolution has turned new news to old news quicker than ever. In any case, I'll be brief. I can't imagine that Rounders, which dropped a huge 44 percent last weekend, can fall as hard this week. A 35 percent fall to $3.1 million would leave Rounders in sixth. Just behind, there's Matt Damon again in Saving Private Ryan (seventh place with a 25 percent drop to $2.6 million). And in eighth, yet another hero, Simon Birch, able to hold his breath, but unable to add more screens this weekend, should fall about 35 percent to $2.4 million. Blade should put the bite on another $2 million with a 40 percent drop, and Ever After should take 10th (25 percent off to $1.4 million). And, of course, everyone's Hot Button fave, Armageddon, will fall 22 percent (off from last weekend's 21 percent because that will represent "plausible erosion") to $978,000 as it chugs past the $197 million mark. All A-bored!
THE GOOD: Jim Carrey's neck injury, which I was pretty sure was a stunt the minute I heard about it (THB 9/24), had my phone ringing yesterday. People who have worked with Carrey in the past all thought it was a publicity stunt, too. And when I explained that I thought it might just be part of staying-in-character, it was explained to me by at least one former Carrey-ite that it is much more Jim's style to create a deliberate event rather than being lost in his world of acting. What's good about all that? For me, it's that no one is buying the act. For Carrey, it means more press about the press buying the stunt. Is everybody happy?!
THE BAD: If Universal and Carl Franklin are trying to figure out what went wrong with One True Thing, allow me to offer this. There is no doubt that movies on death are a hard sell (that is, unless the death is quick and bloody), but given the very movie-worthy material that they were working with, I had one strong objection to the film itself, and I think Universal almost acknowledged it as a marketing problem with their ad campaign. The son, played by Thomas Everett Scott, essentially disappears from the film after his mother gets sick. He appears in print ads, trailers and TV spots, but without impact because he has little impact on the film.
Carl Franklin reasonably explained that it was Renee Zellweger's character's journey and that the father's unwillingness to risk his son's future by bringing him home from college was part of the drama. Fine. But the son was so separate from his mother's death by physical distance and the father so separate by emotional distance that there wasn't much for male viewers to latch onto. And that was apparent in all the trailers and TV ads, even though it was by omission. I think the story of One Tue Thing is of critical importance. Twenty and thirtysomethings finding themselves who have to stop obsessing themselves and start contributing to their families is not just an old-fashioned notion anymore. It's become quite real as the sick are living longer and the insurance companies are doing less. It's hard to live through and it's hard to watch, but it's not just a woman's story anymore either.
THE UGLY: One reviewer I spoke to after a Ronin screening said to me: "By the end, I think I understood what Ronin meant." If you think that's a bad sign for the movie, try selling a movie that has that kind of ambiguity.
JUST WONDERING: Can John Waters ever again reach the height of the grotesque (Pink Flamingos' legendary scene of excrement cuisine), the absurd (Edie, the Egg Lady) or the sublime (Hairspray)? I hope so. But this weekend his return comes in the form of the small Pecker, due in only about 200 theaters. It's a funny movie, but after the Farrelly brothers raised the bar with their summer opus, one has to restrain expectations for Waters' intimate, low-key comedy. Or it could be that the Farrellys will help break Waters' out of his lonely cubbyhole and allow him to fashion an art house career as the whacked Ed Burns.
BAD AD WATCH: Urban Legend offers "A heart-pounding, edge-of-your-seat treat!" from Linda Sutter of the precisely named Entertainment Time-Out. The reason viewer's hearts will pound is because they paid good money to see this film (which doesn't explain Linda's heart troubles), and you will be on the edge of your seat, anxiously hoping that something good will happen before you absolutely have to go ask for your money back. Urban Legend is, indeed, an entertainment time-out.
READER OF THE DAY: AJ wrote: "I haven't written you in a while, but since the topic du jour is T&A, I must throw my two cents in. For what it's worth (two cents, I guess), when it comes to major stars or movies, they should leave it to the imagination. I just think it's better that way. Leave the skin for B-movies, which are often nude shots with the thinnest thread of a plot to tie them together (Of course, that's how those movies should be, and if I ever write one, that's how it will be!) Anyway, take Kate Winslet for example. All I know about her new movie is that she's been exercising for the nude scene. Kate, you're a goddess. Keep your clothes on, and let us mere mortals dream about what you're hiding, or at least watch those few minutes of that 3-hour and 17-minute movie over and over!"
And alternately, Will wrote: "I don't know about the rest of the male American public, but I was very upset not to see Cameron Diaz in the buff in There's Something About Mary. And I've gotta agree with you on Heather Graham, though not Katie Holmes. (She was my No. 1 until Cameron came along.)"

E ME: Did you skip One True Thing? Why? And are you going to see Rush Hour a second time?