The Hot Button by David Poland

Wednesday, 28 October 1998

RANTING & RAVING

Oscar buzz fills the air at this time of year. Summer is over, and it's time to get down to serious business. Saving Private Ryan and The Truman Show are the two major holdovers from the season of cash, so we can put them in our little "consider" time capsule and forget about them until January when the re-releases are sure to occur. (Sadly, we can also forget about City of Angels, Out of Sight and Primary Colors because of release date and/or box office weakness. All three should be in the running for certain categories and will likely grab a technical nomination here or there.) So, the e-mail flows. Who are the front runners? Which movies will make the cut?
Well, I hate these kinds of predictions. After all, we haven't seen all of these movies, have we? Miramax hasn't put all their cards on the table yet. We don't know whether Edward Norton will get buried under the mountain of weird publicity (some of it from me, I admit) on American History X. Will Living Out Loud connect with women or will it suffer a quick demise while still getting Holly Hunter a deserved Oscar nomination in yet another limited year for female Oscar candidates? I don't know. But guess I shall. And may the movie Gods forgive me. (And I don't mean Spielberg and Eisner.)
BEST PICTURE: Pleasantville, Prince of Egypt, Saving Private Ryan, The Thin Red Line and Waking Ned Devine.
Boy, I have a shiver up my spine writing that. Remember, these aren't my personal favorites, but my Academy predictions. Right now, it looks like Pleasantville will be the media's choice for Best Picture and there will be a steady hum for the movie for the next two months until The Thin Red Line arrives. (Yes, I think The Truman Show will be knocked out by the film, despite its flaws. Truman disappointed too many people and was too early in the year.) The Thin Red Line should be great. It had better be great. The return of Terrence Malick combined with Travolta, Clooney, Penn, Cusack, Harrelson, Nolte and Rourke, plus every young character actor who wasn't in Pvt. Ryan is all but a sure bet. Saving Private Ryan is simply deserving and will not be forgotten. Prince of Egypt will have to be really bad not to get a nomination. DreamWorks is breaking all the rules (no toys, limited hype, three soundtracks) and is making an adult animated film that is designed to stir things up. The Academy loves that. Finally, I expect Waking Ned Devine to be Fox Searchlight's answer to Miramax and a legit follow-up to The Full Monty. The film is not The Full Monty. It doesn't have that kind of reach, but it is wonderful and Fox has the power to mimic the promotional genius that Miramax has for getting their pictures nominations.
I believe Italy's Life is Beautiful will get a nomination for Best Foreign Language Film and will have a hard time getting a Best Picture nod. Likewise, Little Voice may have a hard time finding its wings and The Mighty was sandbagged by Miramax's odd choice of release date, especially in such close proximity to Simon Birch. And Velvet Goldmine will be a cult success only. For better or worse, people will be walking out of the Academy's screening about 20 minutes in. The Academy experience of the late '60s was being pissed at their kids for wearing black armbands to their graduation ceremonies. This one won't fly. And Beloved, The Horse Whisperer and Bulworth ain't going anywhere. Sorry.
BEST ACTOR: Nicolas Cage (City of Angels), Tom Hanks (Saving Private Ryan), Edward Norton (American History X), John Travolta (A Civil Action/The Thin Red Line/Primary Colors) and an Unknown Soldier (The Thin Red Line).
Unlike most years, this may be the toughest category this year. First, I haven't seen The Thin Red Line, so I don't know who will get nominated amongst the big guns. It could be that Travolta gets a kind of multi-nod and the others in the cast get Supporting Actor nominations and not Best Actor nods. Hard to bet. My first runner-up is Anthony Hopkins in Meet Joe Black, even though I think the film won't do quite the business it should and Universal may try to sell him as a Supporting Actor (which he isn't), but so goes the politics. It's really his movie and he is astoundingly good. Maybe his simplest, most human work ever.
Also in that "is he a supporting actor or a lead?" area should be Ed Harris (Stepmom), Gene Hackman (Enemy of the State), Danny DeVito (Living Out Loud) and Billy Bob Thornton (A Simple Plan). (The other soldiers in Saving Private Ryan are going to have to fight for supporting nods for sure.) Notice that we are without qualifying films for Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, Dustin Hoffman, Tom Cruise, Jack Nicholson, Leonardo DiCaprio or Robin Williams (his Dreams went away, though Patch Adams seems like a box office hit to come.). Tough year. And potential nominees who will likely miss the boat include Dylan Baker in Happiness, Will Smith in Enemy of the State and Sir Ian McKellan in Apt Pupil. I don't see Tobey Maguire getting anything for Pleasantville though someone else might. (Read on.)
BEST ACTRESS: Holly Hunter (Living Out Loud), Susan Sarandon (Stepmom), Sharon Stone (The Mighty), Meryl Streep (One True Thing) and Reese Witherspoon (Pleasantville).
This category is usually full of reaches. This year, it's too full. If you look at this group, you have four Best Actress winners and one up-and-comer. Hunter is great in Living Out Loud and it really is her movie. Sarandon is always great and gets to die (at least I'm pretty sure she does.) Sharon Stone will be this year's concession to Miramax, who will chase this nomination down like a dog in heat. (That doesn't mean she doesn't deserve it. It's more about the nature of the game.) Meryl Streep gives one of her very best performances ever with the least affectation (see: Hopkins in Meet Joe Black). And Reese Witherspoon should ride on the black and white wings of Pleasantville.
Of course, a nomination for Witherspoon means either nothing or a supporting nod for Academy Award-winner Joan Allen. New Line will have to walk a fine line (sorry about the pun) on how they position their actresses for awards. This list also leaves Julia Roberts in the cold for her Stepmom performance when the Academy would still love to reward her for My Best Friend's Wedding. (Don't think that stuff like that doesn't hold over. It does.) It also leaves Meg Ryan out of the running, despite being in two hits (City of Angels and You've Got Mail). That could change also. Then, you have great performances by Kathy Bates and Emma Thompson in Primary Colors, which will be overlooked by the vast left-wing conspiracy (kidding, kind of) in the Academy. (Bates should have won a supporting nomination for her role in a cakewalk. Another woman who Bill has screwed, though I don't think that screwing someone out of an Oscar by being too popular for people to want to see your true colors is an indictable offense.)
And also, there are the popular girls at the party, who just aren't going to make it to the adult table this year. Or will they? Cameron Diaz shines in There's Something About Mary, but it was just too popular and too gross. (May the Farrellys and Decter and Strauss get nominated for Best Screenplay, dear God.) Drew Barrymore glowed in both The Wedding Singer and Ever After, but neither was serious enough for the Academy to knight her. Angela Bassett showed what a movie star she was in How Stella Got Her Groove Back, but Fox will barely get its money back, so forget that. And Jennifer Lopez was all over Out of Sight and every magazine in America. No ifs, ands, butts or nomination for that allowed. One major surprise could come. With all the Anne-imosity toward Anne Heche, she could get a nomination for Psycho simply for dying.
READER OF THE DAY: Last week, it was all you guys. This week, it's all me. There will be a fresh, hot ROTD tomorrow. It could be you. If you write!

E ME: When you write -- and I know you will -- be kind. And remember that these are not my favorites but my Oscar nomination predictions. I will be happy to see yours and to hear who I missed. And I will air them out for all to see. No problem.