The Hot Button by David Poland

Friday, 30 October 1998

WEEKEND PREVIEW

It had to fight for the top slot last weekend, but I expect a relative cakewalk for Pleasantville this weekend. Strong word of mouth (somewhat balanced by those who really hate the film's third act) should allow the movie to keep all but 20 percent of its color. That would leave about $7.1 million in the coffers. The only real competition for the New Line product will be New Line's American History X. Huh? Unlike the big boys, we are right in New Line's wheelhouse now. August through October. It costs a lot less to get an audience in this period, and there is always the opportunity for a breakout hit. The method worked brilliantly with Rush Hour and Pleasantville and American History X hope to get the benefits of an early (read: cheap) start while staying close enough to year's end to be serious Academy contenders. As best I know, American History X will open on about 1,400 screens this weekend, putting my prediction at about $6 million for second. In third, Practical Magic falls just 35 percent in week three to $5.7 million. In fourth it's Antz, adding another $5.7 million with a 30 percent drop, closing in on $70 million. And in fifth, the other wide release newcomer, John Carpenter's Vampires, a movie that I liked a lot more than I expected to (mostly due to James Woods' great performance), but a movie that Sony doesn't seem to really want to sell, leaving it with an underachieving $5 million opening.
In the second five, Chucky remains lucky as a 40 percent fall-off still leaves another $4.3 million for Bride of Chucky's coffers and a leap past the $25 million mark. Rush Hour should rush past Solider to take seventh, with a 35 percent blow to $3.8 million as the boys pass the $120 million mark. In eighth, Soldier should lose 50 percent (I would say lose 100 percent of the movie) to fire up another $3.2 million on the way to a $13 million total -- if it's lucky. (The film has been tracking out of the Top 10 all week. It would likely have to drop more than 60 percent to not make the Top 10 for the weekend. That probably won't happen, but I won't be sorry if it does.) Beloved is a likely ninth place finisher. I'll say it falls just 33 percent after a 48 percent fall last week Maybe it's the number of people who insist that Oprah can get an Oscar nod despite these ugly numbers. (Hint: It ain't happening.) And fighting for the final spot, it should be What Dreams May Come and Apt Pupil. If the Pupil can't hold on to two-thirds of its audience, it will fall forever out of the Top 10. I'm saying that WDMC will fall 40 percent, close to last week's loss, as both should hover around $2.4 million. Living Out Loud will open, but only exclusively in New York and L.A. venues -- not enough to crack the Top 10, but plenty good enough to crack a smile and bring some warmth to the audiences who do get a look. (Note to under 25s: This one isn't meant for you. No offense. It's about getting out of the slump that comes a little later. Like 26.)
THE GOOD: Harry Knowles got the scoop on the delay of The Green Mile. Congrats. The Hot Button was telling you a month ago (THB 9/01) that Warner Bros. had to break their summer logjam after they decided Eyes Wide Shut was a summer 1999 film. With Eyes, Wild, Wild West and Deep Blue Sea, the studio still has one more major flick than they can really expect to fit into the summer maelstrom. Don't be surprised if Deep Blue Sea tries out the now-safe Rush Hour slot in August. Or maybe it will take a shot at Universal's May 7 slot for The Mummy.
THE BAD: Well, on Wednesday, I gave Oscars to Sharon Stone and Joan Allen. The funny thing was that most of you who wrote in mentioned one or the other, but rarely both. The other tough deal resulting from the Oscar prediction column (THB 10/28) was a torrent of rage against Nicolas Cage, Meg Ryan and City of Angels. (Someone called Meg a "warmed-over Goldie Hawn." OUCH!) Also, lots of you have high hopes for Elizabeth, and many of you have been reading too much Knowles. I would say that considering Paramount's disinterest in really launching A Simple Plan (opening it in an exclusive run against Psycho when it could have had a wide open road in October), the film will require a miracle to be a serious Oscar contender, with the exception of Billy Bob Thornton -- a possible nod for Best Supporting Actor. Because of the flood of response (much of it not seeming to care that I was quite clear that these were Academy projections and not my preferences), the middle three days of next week will be all Oscar (unless important news occurs). Tuesday, I'll fill out my Supporting Actor and Actress and Director predictions. Wednesday, I'll cough up the films I think really deserve the nods. And on Thursday, I'll try and figure out how to get as many of you on the page as possible.
THE UGLY: In an attempt to prove the hypothesis of their story, E! misquoted Edward Furlong on American History X by using one answer he gave in an interview to answer a different question. The answer was, and I'm paraphrasing, how can they make this movie? People are really going to be pissed off by this movie. The set-up was that the movie is causing a furor and that Furlong agreed that it is a seriously controversial film. The problem is that his answer was in response to reading the first third of the screenplay, long before he made the movie. And he later explained (though not on E!) that as he read the rest of the story, he saw how the racists paid the price for their hatred and that it wasn't really a racist movie. This is one of the problems, for some news organizations, of having actors repeating the same thing over and over at junkets. We know the context of everyone else's tape.
THE CHAT: Tonight, the father of Chucky (he was born via the pen), Don Mancini, joins me for a special pre-halloween Movie Chat, co-produced by horrormovies.com. Come by for some scary talk at 11:00 p.m. ET/8:00 p.m. PT, only on roughcut.com and only via Yahoo! Chat.
JUST WONDERING: Is anyone worried for me? I actually went two whole days without seeing a movie on a screen. I can't stop twitching. I need a screening, man!
HAPPY TRAILERS TO YOU: Let me apologize for my brain lapse on the I Still Know trailer. All I seemed to remember last Monday was Jennifer Love Hewitt's wardrobe. I forgot that the thriller has decided to build its sequel around getting away from the mayhem on a vacation. Remind you of anything? I Still Know Where You Sped Last Summer. I guess now that Love will be having a teen break-up, moving to her grandma's place in the country and falling in love with Harry Connick Jr. (though this pairing suggests Copycat more than Hope Floats). Then, she will team with Drew Barrymore for Practically Twenty Magic, in which she plays the sad witch and Drew kills her addict boyfriend (recycled from Boys on the Side). Be afraid. Be very afraid.
BAD AD WATCH: Michael Wilmington says, "Beloved will swim in your bloodstream and echo through your bones." Yuck! Not a bad ad, if you like getting your colon checked for trouble. Universal has a terrific ad for Bride of Chucky, with the Chuck-ster carved into a pumpkin. Very cool. The Siege is running a rather bizarre campaign, offering a trip to New York advertised above a picture of soldiers filling the Brooklyn Bridge. Looks like fun. (Maybe they'll swim in my bloodstream!) And in serious trouble of being mistaken for a hack, we have Kevin Thomas of the L.A. Times, who is quoted this week as calling Orgazmo "Outrageous" and Solider, "Spectacular. A potent action-adventure fantasy." I can tell you this -- the pull-quote on Soldier may be technically accurate, but it misstates the tone of the review. I thought Kevin was kind of generous to the film, not really dealing with the story at all in the review and focusing mostly on the positive. But he was never THAT positive. As for Orgazmo, the movie was so lacking in outrageousness that I didn't even look at his review. The movie should be called Flaccid.
READER OF THE DAY: AJ says: "This isn't really what you wanted, but I would like one small miracle at the Oscars. I'd love to see Drew Barrymore nominated for Best Actress for Ever After. I know it won't happen, and, if by some miracle it did, she wouldn't actually win. Still, it would be great recognition for an actress who is so much more than just some 'hot babe.'"

E ME: But she is a "hot babe," isn't she? Caught part of Everybody Says I Love You last night and, my Lord, she looked lovely. (And Tim Roth is one of the best actors on the Earth today. He blew everyone else in the film off the screen with such understated power. Amazing.) What nominations do you fear? The ones you are sure will happen but that you would pay to make go away. And try to lay off of Cage and Ryan. They've taken enough of a beating already.