Monday, 2 August 1999

WEEKEND REVIEW

Wow.

Wow.

And please allow me to reiterate...

Wow.

$28.5 million for The Blair Witch Project. For my two cents, this is the most remarkable wide opening/expansion that I can remember. Ever. When I think of shocking weekends, I think of the original Batman, the pre-Thanksgiving opening of Back To The Future 2 and The Lost World: Jurassic Park. But every one of those historic leaps at the box office came with history and big advertising expenditures behind them. For a movie to do more than $25 million on nothing but a couple million in publicity and less than $10 million in advertising is astonishing in this age of the $40 million average for studio release P&A. (P&A stands for Prints and Advertising, a phrase that has become more tradition than relevant, given that the cost of prints, even 5000 prints, is dwarfed by the cost of TV ads.) Runaway Bride at $34.5 million is just regular business. Julia Roberts and Richard Gere are still movie stars. Big deal! At least in comparison to The Blair Witch Project. Really stunning.

Ironically, the issue of the film's staying power is a non-issue. Both on the radio and in my e-mail box, the comments are running about 65 percent negative. And the negative buzz is pretty much as passionate as the positive. But that positive group would seem very likely to push this film over $100 million domestically, dropping off an average of about 35 percent a week. (As far as the Bucksbaum stuff in the weekend column, five times the opening is still extremely unlikely and though we were both way off estimating this weekend, I do feel that a little less venom is due Bucksbaum on this one. As ever, the inanity of predicting final numbers before a movie opens and making self-serving quote-friendly, unsubstantiated comments pisses me off. But still, I feel a little guilty for hitting quite so hard.)

Deep Blue Sea has to be a disappointment for Warner Bros. I think everyone expected uniformly bad reviews of the shark fest, but that wasn't the case. There were some rippers, but mostly people and critics seem to have been entertained by the silliness. Still, $18.6 million for a big movie (it started at $80 million and went well over $100 million in post, no matter what people are telling the press) has to be a let down. Blame the Blair Witch.

Not so disappointing, The Haunting was off "only" 55 percent. It deserves worse. Likewise, with Mystery Men not entering the market this weekend, Inspector Gadget remained the main game in town for kids, falling just (that's a real "just") 36 percent. Also, The Phantom Menace seems to have benefited from a weekend light on kids' fare, falling just 19 percent according to Fox estimates. Disney's Tarzan, however, seems to finally be losing some steam, off 39 percent on its way to about $165 million. Meanwhile, Eyes Wide Shut (look for readers' analysis and perspectives in the Working Hollywood analysis of the film on Wednesday), definitely not for kids, dropped another 66 percent on its way to being but a dream.

THE GOOD: Have I praised the weekend of The Blair Witch Project enough yet? Many of you write me to plead with me to avoid blurring the line between quality film and successful box office. That line should be sacredly guarded. But, MAN! To answer a few questions. No, Blair Witch will still not be the most profitable film ever. Figuring out what film was the most profitable is quite difficult given how the numbers have changed over the years and how domestic gross has become such a small piece of the pie. For instance, I expect TBWP to match or surpass its domestic release profit with its video sales profits. It seems that Porky's is the most inexpensive film ever to gross more than $100 million. (cost - $4 million, domestic gross - $105.5 million) Blair Witch may well match or surpass that gross, but the P&A of a 1999 release has got to be higher than for 1982's Porky's. On the other hand, Porky's didn't have the video and DVD opportunities that TBWP will have. So, you try to do the math. Also, we don't know the deal that Artisan has with the filmmakers. Who is going to get the most rich and, if it is the filmmakers, do we determine profitability as we might for, say, Batman, a film with major gross point players? I don't have an answer, but I would say, on cost vs. rentals alone, Blair Witch will be less profitable than any film in the Top 20, except perhaps The Lost World: Jurassic Park. And though that doesn't make it a record holder, it is still incredibly impressive by any standard.

THE BAD: In response to one e-mailer on the subject, I just want to make it clear that it is not a big issue for me that you, as moviegoers, do not necessarily see great value in Eyes Wide Shut. It is not "an entertainment." The argument of "why should I work so hard to get something from a film" is unfortunate, but understandable. But I believe that any serious critic has a responsibility to do that work. And I believe that any critic who dismissed EWS as a failed sex film or an uninspired work by Kubrick has failed in being anything more than just another regular person with an opinion. Criticism seems to be undergoing a revolution/devolution, making the job about being the voice of "the regular person." How that plays out is something only time will tell. But I still feel that critics hold a real and valuable job, which is to know enough about film to offer perspective. (This includes what I consider to be the strength of Ain't It Cool News, reviews by Harry and Moriarty, which don't necessarily speak to my point-of-view, but offer their own unique values that deserve a hearing. And yes, Jeff Well's opinion, after he's actually seen a film, deserves its place as well.) Opinions vary between reasonable people and again, I emphasize, I'm not saying that you are a bad person or a bad critic for not liking Eyes Wide Shut. But the critics who haven't taken the time to really analyze it, treating it as just another dumb movie as they mouth hosannas to the memory of "their Kubrick," should consider changing professions. As the most symbolically complex film of Kubrick's career, Eyes Wide Shut may or may not be his best. But it is, by definition, not trivial, and it is not empty. Of the three masterpieces (an opinion) that I've mentioned before (add Kundun and The Thin Red Line), Eyes Wide Shut is the hardest to reach. The other two just "suffer" from being so calm (to the negative, read: action-free) and so philosophical (read: slow) that audiences were bored. EWS is a real puzzle with few obvious clues. Trying to...starting to...unlock it has given me great pleasure and I hope to keep digging and finding new treasures in it for years to come.

THE UGLY: Back to The Blair Witch. There were many early reports of people being so upset by this film that they were running out into the lobby and vomiting their guts out. True enough. But it turns out that it wasn't terror sending paying customers running. It was motion sickness. Watching this movie is making people sick. You see, the young folks in the woods weren't exactly polished camera people and when they run around, jiggling the camera around, watch out! I've gotten e-mail about this and we got calls on the radio, so that's confirmation enough for me. So, when you go see The Blair Witch Project, take someone you can grab, a willing suspension of disbelief and an air sickness bag, because they don't take their time composing shots in this movie and they don't take kindly to vomit on the theater floors.

THE CHAT: Oh, baby. Come close, baby. You know how to make me go "ooooh..." Oops. Sorry. I got carried away with our chat guest this week, the one and only Isaac Hayes. Yes, he'll give you sweet love. Whether you know him from South Park or Shaft or from any of his great records, he is a "must chat." So join us on Wednesday at 6:30pET/3:30pPT.

GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY: Check out Cukor, La Cava and Ford on the big screen at Glendale, California's The Alex Theater. And check out The Films of Edgar Elmer at The Egyptian Theater in Hollywood c/o The American Cinematheque.

HAPPY TRAILERS TO YOU: The trailer for The Sixth Sense is effectively getting people excited about the film. It's an exceptionally well cut trailer, showing a lot but almost nothing really. And it doesn't try to turn Bruce Willis into the star. It lets the kid at the center of this story hold forth. I wish I could tell you whether the building interest is deserved, but Disney hasn't invited me to see the film. Go figure.

BAD AD WATCH: It's a big weekend for B.A.W. First, we have McDonald's doing TV spots with the first winner of a $1 million check in the Code Name Game. What's bad about that? There is no verbal mention of or logo from Inspector Gadget, sponsor of the game, in the ad. The only "Inspector Gadget" to be found is a tiny one inside a wheel in a closing title card that I didn't even notice until the third time I saw the ad on Sunday night TV. What is up with this? Has McDonald's decided that the film is dragging down the brand among adults?

Next, Mystery Men, a film you already know that I enjoyed, though didn't love, has quotes from Jeanne Wolf (who has lately surpassed Ron Brewington and Paul Wunder as queen of the quote whore category), Westwood One and Launch Magazine, a promotional CD-Rom magazine that does no critical analysis of any kind. Close on Jeanne, Ron and Paul's tails is the amazing Fox Florida trifecta of Omar Lugones, Omar Linares and Steve Oldfield, one of whom has something wonderful to say about every film. The only studio that isn't using one of the Fox trio this week? Fox. Go figure.

Finally, something that isn't bad. In fact, I think it's pretty funny. Sara Edwards of NBC News (???) got on the Dick train in a big way, being quoted as saying both, "Dick Is Hilarious" and "You'll Love Dick!" I'm sure her significant other, assuming he is a he, prefers the latter to the former.

READER OF THE DAY: From J.R. : " After following it since Sundance, I finally got to see The Blair Witch Project tonight. I tried seeing it Friday night, but it was sold out. It was well worth the wait, easily the best movie of the year. Dan Myrick and Ed Sanchez are geniuses for coming up with the concept for this movie. It was the first movie I have seen in a long time, where I forgot everything around me and got totally involved in it. The movie just pulls you in, as you wait in total suspense and fear to see what happens next. You know you have just seen a great movie when everyone in the sell out audience applauds it after it ends. Eat your heart out Spielberg and Cameron, you worthless excuses for filmmakers."

From Marc: " Just wanted to let you know what I thought of Blair Witch...boring as hell. 80 minutes of people arguing, 10 minutes of "supposedly" frightening material. Blair Witch simply did not instill any fright into me whatsoever. I am a firm believer in a horror film not showing everything that is "threatening" the protagonist. I love it when it is left up to the viewer to, in a way, frighten themselves. This movie just did not do it for me. I think it was your column where I read that someone last week said that just as the movie starts to get scary, it ends. Damn right...The audience reaction was definitely mixed...I truly do not expect good word of mouth on this film from your average monthly filmgoer....Just like Eyes Wide Shut (The Best Movie This Year), Blair Witch will open big and decline rapidly."

E ME: There were a couple of letters I loved reading, but included what some people think are spoilers, so I stuck with these fine examples of writing in to The Hot Button. But this Wednesday, there will be all kinds of stuff flying as I give the Rant & Rave over to you, the readers. (Don't worry, spoilers will be well marked.) So if you have anything you are dying to say, today is the day to write in. Tomorrow is too late. Included in the mix will be readers with Eyes Wide Shut theories, Blair Witch takes, MPAA rants and more.