Weekend, 5-6 February 2000

NEWS BY THE NUMBERS

And so, the Sundance daze continues.

The funny thing is, I'm just not motivated to dig into the affairs dú show while I still feel like I'm awash in a sea of movies. I do expect, however, to be back to normal (well, as normal as I get) come Monday. Heck, I even get to sleep in on Sunday, as football season is over. (If you were watching my window, I bet I end up bleary-eyed at my TV, scanning the satellite for the Dolphins game that isn't until I reach full consciousness.) The upside is, of course, that I'll be able to give the Sunday New York Times the focus it deserves once again.

In any case, instead of a news Top Ten this weekend, I thought I'd take a look at the movies that are changing the spring this year. Traditionally, there has been approximately one new film that has any real box office hope that comes out between the limited releases of Christmas Day that widen out and Memorial Day weekend. Over the last five years, Memorial Day weekend expanded to the first weekend of May and this year, back to April 21 with Universal's U-571. Likewise, the second week of January became viable for one film with last year's Varsity Blues success.

But this year, suddenly the Jan-April release period isn't just a dumping ground. I count a baker's dozen of movies that studios may legitimately hope to do "real" box office numbers between now and then. (I'm calling it the spring, even if it technically isn't. Anything after Christmas is spring in MovieVille.) Let's take a look.

1. Scream 3 - It's open now and audiences are likely screaming in the aisles. For whatever reasons, Miramax was greatly paranoid about the film. They told a myriad of people that they wouldn't be showing it to anyone from the Internet for fear that the surprises would be given away. The joke of that is that the movie has been advertising on the Internet longer than on any other medium. Apparently, Miramax failed to learn the lesson of Phantom Menace last year…that the traditional media could be far more abusive to a movie than the Internet people, who embody the core audience of all genre films. Of course, the film has been seen and upon seeing it, some critics say it is better than the original and others say it's become a bit of gobbledygook. So, I guess we all have to see it to decide for ourselves.

2. Gun Shy - It looks like Disney is dumping this movie because they know that Liam Neeson and Oliver Platt don't sell a lot of tickets, and that Sandra Bullock in a small role won't do it for them. On the other hand, the more generous theory is that the film is platforming in NY and LA first to get buzz going. The nice thing for Disney is that both can be true at the same time. And they have already gotten a great review by Elvis Mitchell, the newest of the New York Times' critics and, for that matter, Jeff Wells of Reel.com. If those two can agree (and I just got an e-mail from a University High Priestess who agrees with them,) this is probably an unusually good little movie. A second movie I have to see this weekend.

3. The Beach - Fox's silent but deadly entry. Being in the Leo business means a buttload of wild wonderment. I am happy to report that one stern critic of the film actually saw it and reported that it was a lot better than he expected. And that is the weird wave. Simply because Fox decided to pull the film out the most expensive marketing month of the year (December) to give it some room to run, there was a wave of mixed media. Issues with the cleanliness of the beach The Beach was shot on? More mixed notices. Did Leo knock up a co-star? More mix. But what about the movie? "The movie? Huh?" I don't think we're looking at Titanic 2 here. Hell, The Beach probably doesn't have as much audience upside as The Man in the Iron Mask. But it's not a car wreck and even if I have some issues with Danny Boyle's choices, an audience will show up for this movie.

4. The Whole Nine Yards - I love Jonathan Lynn's work as a director. I think Bruce Willis is great when funny. I'd be happy to see Michael Clarke Duncan win an Academy Award. So why does Warner Bros. appear to be dumping The Whole Nine Yards? Well, Sgt. Bilko, Trial and Error, Breakfast of Champions and no Golden Globe could well be your answer. Add on top of that Matthew "Three To Tango/Almost Heroes" Perry to the WB paranoia list and you may have a full answer. All those pieces and no passion for going anywhere with the thing. I don't know whether the film is great, crap or indifferent, but this is one of the dozen that seems to be going through the paces.

5. Pitch Black - This one is hard to gage. David Twohy had a surprising spring hit with The Arrival back in 1996. And so, here is his next film, being released around the same time. But the posters for the USA Film look like the studio didn't want to spend any more money on color printing. And with just Vin Diesel (a great personality actor who hasn't really broken out yet) and Radha Mitchell (a great young blonde who should buy an apartment up in Park City,) there isn't much to sell by traditional standards. Yet, here the studio is, risking the film on an earlier Twohy release date and the Internet and Sci-fi communities selling the movie to themselves. We shall see.

6. Wonder Boys - It's Curtis Hanson's first film since L.A. Confidential. And he has had three straight hits, including that one (The River Wild and The Hand that Rocks the Cradle) preceding the Oscar bait. Michael Douglas is old enough to have Catherine Zeta-Jones' baby, but he has opened his last two films (A Perfect Murder and The Game) despite creaky reviews and audience reaction. So there is reason for Paramount to be confident. Besides the one-two-punch, the film seems to be smart counter-programming. Normally, this would seem like a pure Fall film, but given last year's iffy results for everything other than The Sixth Sense, suddenly spring looks brighter.

PAGE TWO: "The Rest Of The List & The ROTD"