Monday, 14 February 2000

WEEKEND REVIEW

The real surprise of this weekend wasn't Scream 3 presumably beating The Beach. It's the strength of Snow Day, which smelled like a brown stain in the snow from a mile away. Add Snow Day's estimated $14.8 million (look for the million figure to drop around $1 million) to The Tigger Movie's estimated $9.2 million (also likely to drop) and you have the most important story of the weekend. Kids under 15 generating almost $25 million without a vacation day or any other fluke to prime the pump. The only question I have is why Disney didn't blink and move their date when their Marketeers, I'm pretty sure, knew they had a problem when every ad opened with, "Only in theaters". Last year, the only entry into box office weekend 8 that was aimed at kids was My Favorite Martian and that was only a $11 million start. Snow Day, which I haven't seen, has gotten mostly negative reviews, but not as scathing as My Favorite Martian and it does have kids in the film to attract young audiences. Look for at least one big pre-teen release in this slot in 2001.

But you don't really care about that, do you? Even though it is, by far, the most significant story coming out of the weekend. First, there is an excellent chance that the numbers for one, if not both, of this weekend's Top Two movies (Scream 3 and The Beach by estimate) have been falsified. Do I have proof? Not a lot. The Friday numbers took forever to come out and when they did, the difference between the two films was less than $20,000. Sure, that's possible. And Junior isn't selling Universal.

The second issue is that the Leo obsession has not only been abusive, it has now become more boring than Tim Duncan. (Did you see the All-Star game? The guy could have broken a smile when he got co-MVP! Anyway, if you aren't a b-ball fan, T.D. is pretty damned boring!) Allow me to give you the short strokes of why The Beach's estimated $15 million (if it holds up) should not have been a disappointment or a surprise. Leo has made 11 movies before The Beach that have been released in theaters. 7 of the 11 never totaled, domestically, as much as the $15 million that this one is starting with. Of the other 4, only Titanic and The Man in the Iron Mask opened to more than $15 million. Understandable, as Titanic was Titanic and The Man in the Iron Mask was released during the Titanic wave and was considered a disappointment with a $17.3 million start. Romeo + Juliet only opened to $11.1 million and never got to $50 million, yet is thought of as a huge hit. The Quick and the Dead was a Sharon Stone movie and I agree with his fans that it's not fair to count Woody Allen's Celebrity against the lanky one.

So, what made Leo a $20 million player? Nothing. Who made Leo a $20 million player? Mike Ovitz. And the industry attitude in general. It's the same hum of activity that moved Julia Roberts from $15 million for Notting Hill to $17 million for Runaway Bride to $20 million for Erin Brockovich before Notting Hill or Runaway Bride ever opened. Only that gamble paid off. (Watch how gently Julia Roberts is treated when Erin Brockovich, which is being universally praised, but not expected to be a $100 million hit, comes to theaters. Watch how her $12 million start is applauded by the media.)

You want to look at Danny Boyle? He managed domestic totals of $2.1 million for Shallow Grave, $15 million for Trainspotting, and $4.3 million for A Life Less Ordinary, which followed on the heels of Cameron Diaz's explosion from My Best Friend's Wedding. (GOD! It's all so incestuous!) That is it, folks. Those are the totals. Boyle will be outgrossing his biggest movie by Wednesday.

So chill out, you maniacs! $15 million is a strong start by my calculations and if Scream 3 lied to secure the top slot, so be it. Life will go on.

Now, by a bizarre coincidence, I happened to run into Johnny Depp at brunch on Sunday. Well, I didn't really run into him. He and his stunning wife, Vanessa Paradis (who stars brilliantly in The Girl on the Bridge, one of my favorite films of 1999 that never got released here in the U.S.) and their baby and some others were having lunch in the same place I did. But this is not an I-spy story. When I looked at Depp, with a wild mane, looking very much the movie star, I thought of DiCaprio. Depp has never had a Titanic, though he kind of did on "21 Jump Street", which is, not coincidentally, the last time he played a straight pretty boy movie star role. His looks were important in movies like Cry Baby and Don Juan DeMarco, but there was a lot more there.

DiCaprio took The Beach, a kind of dark story that probably failed artistically not from being too dark, but by not being dark enough. I can't wait to see what DiCaprio does with Martin Scorsese (others have written both off in a rush to stupidity,) but it seems that the career that DiCaprio wants is Depp's. And Depp's career has been similar, though not exactly like Tom Cruise's, who switched gears after Risky Business made him a teen idol and played roles in big movies where other great actors, like Hoffman and Newman and Nicholson, stole the show. Cruise also shopped carefully for directors…Levinson, Stone, Jordan, Ridley Scott, Pollack, DePalma and Kubrick…and supported up and coming quality directors from P.T. Anderson to Cameron Crowe. Some of the movies were great. Others sucked. But he was with the right people, just as DiCaprio was trying to be with the right visionary in Danny Boyle. And Scorsese didn't exactly screw up Cruise's career. Patience, patience, patience…

THE GOOD: I saw Wonder Boys last week and this is my primary comment. The rest will wait for the film's release. Tobey Maguire gives his best performance ever in the film, playing James Leer, a character so complex and focused that he has finally found a role to match his uniquely quirky talents. Had this film been released in December, I believe that Maguire would be a lock for Best Supporting Actor. He's that good. And the rest of the cast is terrific also. Katie Holmes is aging gracefully and sexily. Frances McDormand has never been better, in a very subtle but emotional turn. Michael Douglas is quite good, allowing himself to really age for the first time I can recall on film. My biggest objections to this film are the lame trailer, hideous poster and the long inexplicable title. Neither really gives you a clue as to what this movie is really about.

"Homicide, Ransom & Petty Larceny"