Weekend, 25-26 March 2000

NEWS BY THE NUMBERS

First, some bookkeeping. The Wall Street Journal continues to embarrass itself every time it opens its smug, publicity-hungry mouth about the Oscar® voting story. First, there was the "informed gossip" comment that the company publicist made to Jeff Wells, admitting that the once integrity-laden paper was now, in part, a gossip sheet. Then, Joanne Lipman, WSJ Weekend Journal editor commented to Reuters as though she hadn't read her own story: "Our Oscar survey should give Wall Street Journal readers some insight into not only who may win on Sunday evening, but why.'' As I have said repeatedly in this column, had the Wall Street Journal actually attempted to get any real insight, I would have said, "Go to town," preferring the story sit until Monday, but at least there would be a purpose. Buddy Hackett and Alan King cracking wise at The Friar's Club is not news, kids. And as someone who does a radio show where Academy members call in on a regular basis, I have to tell you…they are not monolithic. The guy in the Journal piece who whines about this newfangled kid stuff would be your classic Academy stereotype. Where's the insight?

I also heard from a Knowlesian who suggested that by putting "we" into the quote Harry made about the Oscar nominations, I suggested that everyone at AIC was somehow part of that embarrassment. Well, I put the "we" in parentheses to distinguish that, assuming no one would miss the point. However, since I got a letter about it, I have another chance to make my point. Silence = Approval. Maybe you don't like to be held to that standard. But what you don't say is as important as what you say. You don't have to say, "I'm not married" to suggest to a woman that you are available. It's still a lie. It is still wrong. Ain't It Cool brings out the weird in a lot of people. Instead of writing about the lie, Jeff Wells took down his well-reported piece on the fake Knowles Oscar nominations (written pre-announcement) because he didn't want to be embarrassed by being associated with a scam. Studios get into business with Knowles and then pretend that they aren't. AIC says, "We don't have a contract." None of us have a damned contract with the studios. We just know the rules. And this is my rule. If you really think something is wrong, speak out. And if you don't, don't. But no whining about how misunderstood you are after you speak volumes with silence.

And now ...

NEWS BY THE NUMBERS

The Wall Street Journal thing has plum worn me out. I am so sick of having these conversations in private and then being surrounded by silence. I keep wanting to quote Albert Brooks/Jim Brooks from Broadcast News about the slow lowering of standards, but I can't find the quote.

Anyway, I'm just going to print a list, from the Academy, in the order they have it, of the nominees and my guesses about who will win. I'm going to keep my opinions about who I want to win to myself, because who gives a good go**amn anyway? My opinions are based on a non-scientific Academy voter poll of about 3 percent. I didn’t talk to Buddy Hackett, so I'm not sure how accurate it will be. Producers who live on 16th Street in Santa Monica who have two kids and weekend visits to them every other weekend seemed to prefer Hilary Swank to Chloë Sevigny until he saw Chloë playing with Michelle Williams’ breasts on HBO and changed his vote. Actors who won't stop looking in the mirror, lie about their sex lives ("He's a closet heterosexual!") and won't eat vegetables and starches on the same plate really went for The Cider House Rules in my poll, but seem to feel strongly that Tom Cruise deserves to win for Born on the Fourth of July.

Let's get down to business…

For the "Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role" Russell Crowe in The Insider (Buena Vista) Richard Farnsworth in The Straight Story (Buena Vista) Sean Penn in Sweet and Lowdown (Sony Pictures Classics) Kevin Spacey in American Beauty (DreamWorks) Denzel Washington in The Hurricane (Universal and Beacon)

There are two answers to this question. This category and Best Actress will define the night. If Denzel wins, American Beauty goes home with 4 or 5 Oscars, winning the night, but not overwhelmingly. If Kevin Spacey wins, American Beauty wins 7 or 8 Oscars and becomes legendary overnight.

For the "Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role" Michael Caine in The Cider House Rules (Miramax) Tom Cruise in Magnolia (New Line) Michael Clarke Duncan in The Green Mile (Warner Bros.) Jude Law in The Talented Mr. Ripley (Paramount & Miramax) Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense (Buena Vista Pictures Distribution)

Another "important" category. Will Miramax win the day with its Cider House campaign? Or will Haley Joel Osment, a classic Oscar choice if ever there was one -- for better or worse -- prevail above the hype? If Tom Cruise does win, it would mark an important change in Academy voters, actually embracing an edgy, "young" performance. But it won't happen.

For the "Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role" Annette Bening in American Beauty (DreamWorks) Janet McTeer in Tumbleweeds (Fine Line) Julianne Moore in The End of the Affair (Columbia) Meryl Streep in Music of the Heart (Miramax) Hilary Swank in Boys Don’t Cry (Fox Searchlight)

Another sweep issue. Everyone in town knows that Hilary Swank should win. People love Annette Bening, both the real woman and the idea of her. If Swank wins, it will prove that campaigning isn't everything.

For the "Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role" Toni Collette in The Sixth Sense (Buena Vista Pictures Distribution) Angelina Jolie in Girl, Interrupted (Columbia) Catherine Keener in Being John Malkovich (USA Films) Samantha Morton in Sweet and Lowdown (Sony Pictures Classics) Chloë Sevigny in Boys Don’t Cry (Fox Searchlight)

The most difficult category for Academy members. Most I spoke to couldn't even remember who they nominated. Look for Angelina Jolie by default. And watch how quickly they go to commercial if Jolie puts Oscar's head anywhere near her mouth.

For the "Best Achievement in Art Direction": Anna and the King (20th Century Fox) Art Direction: Luciana Arrighi Set Decoration: Ian Whittaker/ The Cider House Rules (Miramax) Art Direction: David Gropman Set Decoration: Beth Rubino/ Sleepy Hollow (Paramount and Mandalay) Art Direction: Rick Heinrichs Set Decoration: Peter Young/ The Talented Mr. Ripley (Paramount & Miramax) Art Direction: Roy Walker Set Decoration: Bruno Cesari/ Topsy-Turvy (USA Films) Art Direction: Eve Stewart Set Decoration: Eve Stewart and John Bush

The rare American Beauty non-category. Look for voters to toss The Cider House Rules a bone here.

For the "Best Achievement in Cinematography" American Beauty (DreamWorks) Conrad L. Hall/ The End of the Affair (Columbia) Roger Pratt/ The Insider (Buena Vista) Dante Spinotti/ Sleepy Hollow (Paramount and Mandalay) Emmanuel Lubezki/ Snow Falling on Cedars (Universal) Robert Richardson

Conrad Hall should win going away. He should share the Oscar for directing with Mendes, should Mendes win. (Look, I've broken my own "no personal opinion" rule!) This is Hall's ninth nomination and the only time he won, it was 1969, when he shot Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, which lead the awards with seven nominations and four wins. (The film was helped out by the Academy giving an Oscar to John Wayne for True Grit instead of Hoffman or Voight for Midnight Cowboy or, by the way, Peter O'Toole or Richard Burton. OY!) Could he be 30 years lucky? Well, he's 30 years (and more) genius. And I think he'll be part of whatever sweep, mini or major, that American Beauty has.

For the "Best Achievement in Costume Design" Anna and the King (20th Century Fox) Jenny Beavan/ Sleepy Hollow (Paramount and Mandalay) Colleen Atwood/ The Talented Mr. Ripley (Paramount & Miramax) Ann Roth and Gary Jones/ Titus (Fox Searchlight) Milena Canonero/ Topsy-Turvy (USA Films) Lindy Hemming

Academy members remember hearing something about New Yorkers liking Topsy-Turvy and despite actually seeing The Talented Mr. Ripley, think "period piece."

For the best achievement in directing American Beauty (DreamWorks) Sam Mendes/ Being John Malkovich (USA Films) Spike Jonze/ The Cider House Rules (Miramax) Lasse Hallström/ The Insider (Buena Vista) Michael Mann/ The Sixth Sense (Buena Vista Pictures Distribution) M. Night Shyamalan

Only Alan King could know so little about film AND be an Academy member as not to realize that the best work from a director is not necessarily what makes the Best Picture best. Oops…correction. The entire Academy tends to think that way. Sam Mendes will win.

For the "Best Achievement in Documentary Features" Buena Vista Social Club (Artisan) A Road Movies Production Wim Wenders and Ulrich Felsberg/ Genghis Blues (Roxie Releasing) A Wadi Rum Production Roko Belic and Adrian Belic/ On the Ropes (WinStar Cinema) A Highway Films Production Nanette Burstein and Brett Morgen/ One Day in September An Arthur Cohn Production Arthur Cohn and Kevin Macdonald/ Speaking in Strings (Seventh Art) A CounterPoint Films Production Paola di Florio and Lilibet Foster

People saw Buena Vista Social Club. Buena Vista Social Club will win.

For the "Best Achievement in Documentary Short Subjects": Eyewitness A Marbert Art Foundation Production Bert Van Bork/ King Gimp A Whiteford-Hadary/University of Maryland/Tapestry International Production Susan Hannah Hadary and William A. Whiteford/ The Wildest Show in the South: The Angola Prison Rodeo A Gabriel Films Production Simeon Soffer and Jonathan Stack

The rodeo movie has too long a title. King Gimp sounds offensive. Eyewitness will win.

"And the rest ..."