5 July 2000

And what about the Sony situation? Well, the public face is smiley. Dean Devlin is telling the media, "I feel like I've weathered the storm." Funny. But your boat sunk. The studio is reporting that polling shows a 93 percent "recommend" and 53 percent willing to pay to see it again. Yes, and angels are flying out of my posterior. If The Patriot holds really well (averaging 30 percent a week drops), it will gross a domestic total of around $120 million. (Parenthetically, if The Perfect Storm drops hard, averaging 40 percent a week, it will still pass $160 million domestic. If it drops in a more traditional way, say 35 percent, it will win the summer going away, grossing as much as $230 million domestically.)

The reality is that the summer that was supposed to make John Calley and Amy Pascal secure for a little bit longer is now smelling of absolute disaster. Write off the failures of I Dreamed of Africa and Center Stage and Running Free and Groove. The Patriot could actually lose money. And Loser is, sadly, not likely to be the sleeper we all hoped for, but rather a reflection of its title. That leaves The Hollow Man. And though there have been those voicing reservations about the third act, I believe that it will be successful. But successful enough? Dubious. I love the idea of releasing a Toho Godzilla, and Girlfight is a nice, tiny film. But then you have Urban Legend 2, The 6th Day (word is that Ah-nuld is looking his age) and long-rumored agony of Charlie's Angels. If Calley and Pascal survive to revel in The Vertical Limit, it seems that it absolutely has to be because Peter Schlessel is being groomed to take over and hasn't finished sucking all the information about the job that he can out of the retiring Calley and the I'm-Starting-A-Production-Company-With-German-Money-bound Pascal. (Well, it could absolutely be something else, but it won't be that the Japanese are sure that Stuart Little 2 is going to turn it all around.)

So, I am a very happy boy, even if I joined the dark side and allowed the crowd to skew my instincts. Not that my instincts are always right. But I don't consider it my job to offer my opinion as filtered through others. First, I offer an opinion. My opinion. Next, I offer the opinions of others. And finally, you (and fate) get to be the judge. It's not that I'm thrilled to see anyone fail. I'm not. But any time that reality forces those of us who spend way too much time making cheap and easy use of iffy information instead of thinking for ourselves to think, I am exhilarated. I believe that numbers matter. I believe that insider opinions matter. I believe that some things can be quantified. But I believe most of all in the spirit and ingenuity of people to rise above the mundane. God bless America. God bless the world. God bless the movies. Hollywood's entertainment writers got a big bite of apple this weekend. Whether they know or will admit it or not.

Also underperforming this weekend was The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle, which did an estimated $11 million over the 5-day weekend. Not impressive. But I still suggest that as the next weeks progress that kids and their parents will go to this film in larger numbers. We'll see. Meanwhile, Me, Myself & Irene fell like a turd on a lawn. Based on 3-day draws, the film dropped more than 50 percent in Weekend Two. Chicken Run, on the other hand, held strong with an estimated $21 million over the long weekend.

READER OF THE DAY: Auntie Em writes: The Worst So Far: The Big Kahuna--Kevin Spacey rehashes the salesman thing (yawn!). Drowning Mona--UGH! I was praying for that car to go under with Bette in it. The Flintstones in Viva Rock Vegas--Oy, will Stephen Baldwin EVER get a clue??? Battlefield Earth--L. Ron Hubbard was spinning in his grave over this one! Love's Labour's Lost--Ken, baby, get over your bad self & Alicia, stop singing, sweetie! The Best So Far: Kadosh--Intense enough to make me want to convert to Catholicism. The Virgin Suicides--Curious & eclectic…and those 5 sisters...wow! Croupier--Proof that film noir is not dead...deal me in! Toy Story 2--Sorry kids, I liked it. Passion of Mind--A poetic, psychological puzzle (and Demi Moore wasn't half bad).

And DK Not NY offers: "While considering making a list for my favorite movies from the first half of 2000, I was struck by the lack of obvious choices compared to 1999. At this point last year, I wouldn't have to had thought for a second before rattling off The Matrix, Go, Election, October Sky, Run Lola Run, An Ideal Husband and two movies that I thought were underrated, Ravenous and Office Space. That's not even including Rushmore, which was really released in the first half of '99 if you don't count the Oscar®-qualifying run.

Looking at the first six months of 2000, only two movies really jump out at me right away to put on my list: Ghost Dog: The Way of the Samurai and Erin Brockovich. If I had to scramble to fill out my list, I would probably wind up adding Croupier, Chicken Run, The Whole Nine Yards and (don't retch) Final Destination.

The optimist in me thinks that 1999 was just such an incredible year for movies that even with an above average slate, 2000 would be a disappointment. Here's hoping the second six months provide many quality and entertaining movies. Personally, I'm looking forward to, off the top of my head, The Hollow Man (is it unhip to still be a Verhoeven fan?), Cecil B. Demented, Oh Brother Where Art Thou?, Pay it Forward, Bounce, Nurse Betty, Legend of Bagger Vance and Miss Congeniality (is it unhip to still be a Sandra Bullock fan?)

Here's to the (real) last six months of the millennium."

E ME: I got a few e-mails about me leaving Ghost Dog off my list. And indeed, it was a screw-up on my part. A top ten-er for me, absolutely. Wonder Boys just missed the list.