Monday, 24 July 2000

WEEKEND REVIEW

The only really interesting thing about this weekend's numbers is how badly two of the four new releases actually did. The In Crowd actually managed to have fewer viewers over the weekend than a poorly rated episode of almost anything on the WB, despite the addition of a nipple or two to the traditional cleavage. Hell, you can't even get that in Maxim. Yet, it was still not enough to get this movie to turn the corner, grossing a massive estimated $2.7 million in five days and $1.5 million in three. What's scariest about that is that the numbers were actually better on Wednesday and Thursday than on the weekend.

Also hitting the wall really hard was Sony's Loser. Sony's second potential smash turned, you'll forgive the word, loser in less than a month. Well, The Patriot is borderline. As a high-priced summer tentpole, it was limp. An estimated $6.1 million means that even conservative drops suggest that the film will never pass $25 million and will lose money, given that chatty comedies don't travel well outside of North America.

Then, there is the question of X-Men, which will pass the $100 million mark on Monday. The film's box office drop, based on the estimate, was 55 percent. That's not thrilling, but it's no disaster on the tail of a big opening. Mission: Impossible 2 dropped by 53 percent in its second weekend and hasn't posted a fall over 36 percent since. If X-Men stays on that trajectory, we're looking at somewhere between $160 and $180 million domestic. And X-Men should travel well. So, the odds are that the film will end up being the most profitable summer movie of this year, barring a last minute surprise. Big Momma's House and Scary Movie will both do quite well also, but neither is likely to bring home the big b.o. bacon overseas. And Gladiator, which should end up a little ahead of X-Men worldwide, cost more.

THE GOOD: The San Diego Comicon was quite the adventure for me. I didn't respect The Con enough and it bit back. When my buddy Ed, his two kids and my nephew and niece tried to find a hotel room in San Diego…in Del Mar…in Escondido…At about 2 a.m., I sent Ed back to L.A. and I found a couch to sleep on. Not pretty.

But by the time morning came, I managed to get to the convention center for the panel on the future of movies and the Internet. Unfortunately, much of the conversation reduced itself to arguments between a bunch of guys with personal beefs with Harry Knowles. But I think we eventually got around to a few relevant issues. Kevin Smith provided the comic relief, but also added an important point of view, really speaking for the film geeks who love the 'net and just want to enjoy the freedom of the experience. But the group on the dais, from IGN to CHUD to Film Threat to Coming Attractions to myself and Harry are all past the point where this is just a lark. This is hard core business, man. IPOs and millions in ad revenue and bottom-line fears.

One thing is clear. We can all get along on some levels, but unity isn't going to happen. Yet, we are all stuck together as the industry sorts out what they think the Internet really means. Rage at Harry will continue as he evolves from a true geek to a media favorite to a studio sweetheart. Or at least a person perceived by the studios as malleable and well known, yet influential with the fanboys. One studio division will do business (business equals access) with Web sites while the other divisions pretend the Web doesn't exist. We will all be blamed for the "negative" acts of others on the Web without getting the benefits of the acts that are perceived as positive. (When it's good, it's the relationship. When it's bad, it's the entire medium.)

I'm glad I went because I think that it has caused a shift in my general thinking about how and why those of us in this game interact. We are all so young. And yet, we are on the frontier together, old at three years of age. Ancient at five. It's unlikely that there will be a "Bill Gates" of this business. When push comes to shove, we are "talent." Some of us may be the next generation of Ann Landers and Abigail Van Burens, Liz Smiths and Cindy Adams, Ken Turans and even Roger Eberts. In other words, the "winners" will be measured by degree and, indeed, there is room for each of us to bring our own game to the table.

The question is whether there really is anything new under the sun. The form of the Web is new and special. But as the stakes get higher, the return to convention seems inevitable. There is nothing new about "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" Entertainment Weekly hasn't broken an inch of new ground. And most movies always sucked in every era. Being a renegade is a form of self-marginalization. And I applaud those who understand and make that choice. But none of us on that panel qualify anymore. We are all reaching for more than good, clean fun. In fact, the only thing we really control are our own choices as we float through the experience. The rest is frustration.

The adventure continues.

THE BAD: The critics just didn't get What Lies Beneath. But I have to tell you, they are wrong. Wrong to the core. I guess this is one of those movies that ends up being the victim of a critical circle jerk (to steal a colorful phrase used at this weekend's Comicon panel) in which critics know too much to allow themselves to enjoy anything. Did they think that Bob Zemeckis was trying to trick them into thinking that he didn't realize that he was doing a Hitchcock movie? Were they too busy scribbling down all the references they got to realize that Zemeckis was working in three dimensions?

It's really quite surprising to me. I thought that audiences would have a hard time with the pacing of the first two acts of the movie. But they don't seem to mind at all. They choose to take the ride. And they seem to genuinely love the third act. Too bad the critics were already working on pithy attack comments instead of allowing themselves an ounce of joy.

And by the way, what the hell is up with Elvis Mitchell? Anyone who actually saw What Lies Beneath could not write that the entire movie was given away in the trailer. The first act was, but that was about as far as it went. But again, maybe Elvis checked out entirely in the last hour. Better lay off of the Krispy Kreme donuts.

"Who Knows What & What Does It Matter?"