Monday, 21 August 2000

So, here is the basic question: is $17.2 million for The Cell a thrill or a disappointment?

I would have to lean towards the latter answer. It is true that tracking showed the movie opening somewhere between $15 million and $20 million. But the hyperbole that built up around this film seems to have gotten those around the movie ready for something remarkable to happen this weekend. $17.2 million, a number that is still just an estimate, doesn't suck, but it ain't remarkable. In fact, it is the seventh best opening this summer among R-rated films, following Scary Movie, Gladiator, Hollow Man, The Patriot, Me, Myself & Irene and Shaft. But even if that sounds good to you, a little research reveals (remarkably, to me) that there were only 9 major studio releases that were rated R this summer before this weekend. The only two that didn't open higher than The Cell were Road Trip and Bless the Child. DreamWorks is pretty happy with the $75 million or so that Road Trip will gross domestically, but it was a lot cheaper than The Cell. And Bless the Child…pretty much a Paramount late summer dump. So.

The tenth R-rated major studio release of Summer 2000, The Original Kings of Comedy, is a happier story, even if its estimate is only $11.7 million this weekend. The film, shot on digital video over four days on an already established comedy tour, is the cheapest film to be released by the primary arm of a major this year. And it will be in profit (real dollars, not studio accounting dollars) before the end of next weekend. The film, which opened in just 847 venues could crossover into white theaters, but it hasn't really had the opportunity to do so yet, based on the venues it was booked into across most of America. That will change soon and the question of whether this will be a highly profitable $30-$40 million domestic grosser or a hugely profitable $50-$60 million grosser is what lies in that answer.

I have to tell you, this stat about just 10 R-rated releases this summer is still stunning to me. I count 34 major summer releases to date. So, less than a third are R-rated. A look through the L.A. Times Sunday Calendar section reveals that among arthouse releases, the ratio of R to other ratings is 11-to-1 (Four films list no ratings, though I believe that 3 of those 4 are R rated.). Wow! This is one of those moments where I find myself newly aware. Based on this summer, the argument of those who want to keep the horror of modern culture has no business being directed at mainstream studio films. They should be attacking art films. With really low grosses. That kids don't sneak into. That kids don't want to sneak into. THAT'S where all the really dirty-minded people must be! In the land of aspiring to something greater! Fascinating!

The four movies from the major studios that really pushed the line for me (as in, I really, really don't want my 11-year-old nephew sneaking a peek) are Scary Movie, Me, Myself & Irene, Road Trip and The Cell. Each film is from a different studio. None of the four films pretended to be child safe. So what do you think? Can America's parents handle keeping their kids out of four films each summer? I know that my boundaries are only mine, but you get the point. What other films are dangerously competing with parents for ownership of their children's souls? Nutty Professor II: The Klumps? What Lies Beneath? Thomas and the Magic (snorting) Railroad? Perhaps "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" is more dangerous for children than "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?" or "Survivor."

Just wondering.

Warner Bros. estimated just a 24 percent fall for Space Cowboys, which suggests that there is an audience out there for this movie and that they are finding the film. Happily, it is probably an unusually old audience driving these numbers. And if the film continues to hold up this well, the movie could actually orbit the $100 million mark, which would be a pleasant surprise for all involved.

Losing steam much more quickly is Hollow Man, one of the R-10. Fifty percent plus has become the film's standard drop, so despite a big start, $100 million is likely to stay out of range. There was no other good news for Sony either, as Godzilla 2000, which I really enjoyed, managed only an estimated $4.6 million, which suggests that despite the fact that the film had a price tag almost as small as The Original Kings of Comedy, the studio is going to have to stretch to break even on the conversion to English and P&A costs alone. They will make a profit on video, but...Hollow Man could conceivably generate enough outside of America to hit profit, as The Patriot probably will. But not much profit in either case. And the rest of the Sony summer (I Dreamed of Africa, Center Stage, Loser) shared Amy Heckerling's film's tag. I was ready for Sony to have a great, great summer when they presented their case last March at the exhibitor's convention, ShoWest. But every single film fell short. And except for Godzilla, every film fell short in a way that points to upper management. Hollow Man's third act. The Patriot's length and schmaltz factor. The idea that anyone would ever go see I Dreamed of Africa or Center Stage without something more weighty involved to draw audiences. Loser's surprisingly unfocused screenplay that should of and could have been fixed by Heckerling before getting a greenlight.

Maybe this is all a major set-up for a firing followed by a bunch of later arriving hits in Vertical Limit, Spiderman, Saving Silverman and The Wedding Planner. Could be. But in the meantime, no execs in my memory have had a worse year than Sony is having right now and survived. There aren't even any noble failures on which Tokyo can hang their hopes. All there is to look at is promise. And this summer sure looked promising from a distance.

THE GOOD: Chile, known for its liberal policies (snicker, snicker), is about to remove, it seems, a 30-plus year run of film censorship. It seems they have elected a Socialist president named Ricardo Lagos, who will support an end to the Cinema Ratings Council (or CCC for Consejo de Califacion Cinematografica) in the South American nation. It seems that a showing of Pedro Almodovar's Pepi, Luci, Bom and the Other Girls caused a governmental in-fight that resulted in the realization that the censorship rules have lost their importance in an society that is becoming more and more a part of the world. Perhaps we can send Vice President Lieberman down there to straighten things out.

THE BAD: Speaking of Joltin' Joe, I actually had to apologize for being Jewish on the KABC-790 radio show that I do on Saturdays with George Pennacchio. After dropping a line, perhaps with excess glibness, about Lieberman giving some people another excuse to hate Jews by way of his views on media censorship, calls started coming in accusing me of being an anti-Semite. Actually, I think that Semites can be anti-Semitic. But I'm not even a self-hating Jew. I'm just a nice Jewish boy with a sharp tongue and the willingness to use it in public. It is amazing to me, though, how one sentence like that, in a two-hour show discussing the topic of Lieberman and censorship, could become such a focal point. Let me clarify as I did on Saturday. There is no excuse for hating anyone in public life for who they are, only for what their policy positions are. It is horrifying to me that the left could join with the right on the issue of "cleaning up Hollywood" and that self-censorship could once again rear its ugly head in this town. And if you have any interest in reading more on that issue, please take a look at the weekend column. Me? I'm going to go have a bagel. (Damn! I did it again!)

"Dissing, Dissing, Dissing"