Monday, 6 November 2000

WEEKEND REVIEW

"Will Charlie's Angels reach for the list? We'll see."

I love quoting myself.

That was what I wrote last Friday, along with my list of the top weekends of Novembers past. I knew that Sony wouldn't have the cojónes to reach for Toy Story 2's record $57.4 million opening. And I doubted they would reach for The Waterboy's $39.4 million opening. 50/50 there. I don't really want to spend the time or space on a lot of accusations, but even final numbers announced today are not really final... they are still somewhat estimated and rely on the studios' honesty. My general belief is that a 10 percent variance will be passable; anything more sends up alarms, especially in a tight race. What do I think Charlie's Angels really did? Maybe $37 million -- $38 million. Still great, right? But not real marketable to journalists. A $37.5 million start would be fourth best ever for the month, but not even the best nonsequel... The Waterboy would still reign. So, what's the answer? Fudge the numbers.

Remember that Scream "did" $33 million and claimed $39 million. That's more than a 15 percent lie. Too greedy. And I would bet that if Scream 2 announced that it did $36 million, it would still be its recorded gross today. (Don't even get me started on the now-always-reported $92 million figure for the cost of production... come on!)

The reason I keep chasing down this issue of manipulated estimates and finals is that, even though I write about the subject, I think that box office has become a pathetic and corrupt marketing tool, just as the junket circuit has. Both have their place. Both have seen their values overwhelmed by the value of expedience. And while I have no need to become the king of quotes, it is amusing that the studios still value the comments -- and assume that you value the comments -- of noncritics around the country more than the comments of many, many film critics who take their jobs quite seriously, both on the web and off.

The runner-up for the weekend was Meet the Parents, and its estimated 13 percent drop has the faint smell of manure, in light of the massive bites by the Angels amongst kids and by The Legend of Bagger Vance amongst adults. Considering that last week, the film dropped just 6 percent, 13 percent (likely to become 17 percent or so) seems unreasonable. On the flip side, the target of $175 million is within reach for Meet the Parents. Hmmm... And as for Bagger Vance, a $12 million estimate is essentially what people expected... and not very thrilling.

In other less-than-thrilling news, Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2 dropped, even in estimates, 60 percent, and Lucky Numbers dropped 51 percent.

THE GOOD: Okay Sesame Street fans... it's time to play "One of These Things Is Not Like the Others." Put on those thinking caps and tell me which one before my song is done.

Eraser

Batman & Robin

End of Days

The 6th Day

Okay? Everyone have his or her answer? If you guessed The 6th Day, you're right!

Why? Because The 6th Day is the best Arnold Schwarzenegger movie since True Lies hit in 1994. It would be damning with faint praise simply to say, "It doesn't suck!" It's better than that. The 6th Day is a good movie... a really enjoyable science-fact thriller in the vein of The Andromeda Strain or Soylent Green, but much more tangible because we are so close to the film’s premise. Simply put, the story is about a guy who gets cloned -- a highly illegal process -- by the bad guys, because they believe, incorrectly, that he’s dead. When two of him turn up, they try to kill the one who knows that he's been cloned. To complicate things, the guy has a much-loved wife and daughter who will be threatened if his "double life" exposed. And so, Ah-nuld must save his own life and figure out what's happening (it’s more complicated than what I’ve just mentioned) to make the world safe, all the while remaining low-profile. The script is quite clever, and this is, for me, Roger Spottiswoode's most accomplished work as a director to date. He used to be an editor, and the film benefits greatly from his and his editors’ (Michel Arcand, Mark Conte, and Dominique Fortin) editing mindset. It's not groundbreaking, really, but it is highly skilled commercial filmmaking near a Tony Scott or Michael Bay level... short the excess pyrotechnics and smoke. It doesn't call attention to itself, but it works.

And I don't think I'm spoiling anything by mentioning the inevitability of Ar-nuld and Ah-nuld, together on screen for the first time. Great stuff.

It's nice to see Schwarzenegger making a movie that relies more on his image than his brawn and is also smart enough to stay one step ahead of the audience. Sony is looking at its second consecutive hit here... that is, if they start selling it with one-third the gusto with which they've sold Charlie's Angels. And this film, tightly budgeted around the $80 million mark, is likely to make more money for Sony than the Angels' realistic overbudget cost of $120 million, in addition to ad costs that will likely be about 40 percent higher than those for The 6th Day.

PAGE TWO: Dish Dish, Reasonless Race, and For the Love of Quills