Friday, 9 February 2001

WEEKEND PREVIEW

It's pretty easy to figure out the box office weekend. Hannibal, Hannibal, Hannibal. The only question is, how high? Last year, on the first weekend of February, Scream 3 opened to $34.7 million. Will Hannibal match or surpass that? Could be.

Also opening is Saving Silverman. More on that below. And in exclusive release, The Taste of Others arrives on 2 New York screens while Love, Honour & Obey, Signs & Wonders, Split Decision and Bad Company are all on one screen apiece.

Daily Box Office will arrive here at davidpoland.com sometime soon and when it does, my box office guesstimates will appear in the box office section. But for now, it is right below.

WEEKEND GUESSTIMATES

1. Hannibal -3230 venues -new - $46 million
2. The Wedding Planner - 2726 venues - off 40 percent - $6.4 million
3. Saving Silverman - 2467 venues - new - $6.1 million
4. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon - 1204 venues -off 15 percent - $5.8 million
5. Cast Away - 2354 venues - off 25 percent - $5.6 million
6. Valentine - 2310 venues - off 50 percent - $5 million
7. Traffic - 1734 venues - off 30 percent - $4.41 million
8. Save The Last Dance - 2506 venues- off 40 percent - $4.3 million
9. Head Over Heels - 2360 venues- off 40 percent - $2.88 million
10. Finding Forrester - 1586 venues - off 35 percent - $2.738 million
11. Chocolat - 1148 venues - off 25 percent - $2.736 million

THE GOOD: Steven Soderbergh spoke to the future of the studio system at the Berlin Film Festival, where Traffic is unspooling. I disagree with him, for the most part, but I love that he is thinking about it and has a strong opinion that is worth discussion. Here's what he said:

"In the States, the movie business over the next five years is going to change a lot -- independents and studios alike. I think the studio system is going to slowly drift away. It will end up with people just using the studio as a distribution apparatus rather than a development and production center."

Here's why I disagree- the bottom line. The movie business is not a good business by traditional standards. The reason studios exist and will, I believe, continue to dominate, is that the ability to take advantage of all the various forms of cash flow is key to the ability to finance movies year in and year out. Actually, I believe that studios will slowly move away from the business of splitting costs on movies, since the logic of giving up any cash flow opportunities on a movie may lower risk, but it also lowers the opportunity for big paydays on surprise hits and on profit opportunities on the big tentpoles. The industry already adjusts budgets to deal with films, like talky comedies, that aren’t expected to play well overseas. Yet, the biggest mistake of the last few years was Universal selling off the foreign rights to American Pie. There just isn't enough upside in safety while playing a game that is inherently unsafe. Studios will have to be brave about controlling costs, but becoming "just" distribution arms? Tell me that when you are watching the 2006 Soderbergh movie in the Disney, Fox or Warner Bros. theater, getting pay-per-view over AOL/Time-Warner wire of Fox satellite and renting video at Viacom's Blockbuster chain.

THE BAD: How bad is Saving Silverman? It's so bad it's hard to get perspective on just how bad it really is. The funny thing about how truly terrible Saving Silverman may be is that I actually saw a movie this week that was even worse. Fortunately, Mike DeLuca has already been fired at New Line, so he won't have to suffer through the release of that dog. (No, I'm not telling… it will be dog food soon enough.)

But I digress...

Saving Silverman is wrong on so many levels. But let's start with what's right. The story, as simple as "beautiful controlling woman separates boy from his two childhood buddies and they kidnap her in order to try to get him back into their lives," is not a bad one. Throw in the unrequited high school love who has to decided between "boy" and the nunnery, plus the Ruthless People steal of the kidnapper twisting the soft, pliable minds of the kidnappers and you could have a terrific light comedy. But that's not all! Jack Black got paid $1 million for S.S. because he was so hot coming off of High Fidelity. Amanda Peet hit a home run with The Whole Nine Yards and now she won't stop showing off her breasts. Steve Zahn is one on the most reliable comedians in the movie business. Jason Biggs can do good work. And Amanda Detmer is, along with Judi Greer, one of the two most promising off-beat comediennes of this generation. Finally, while he is no world-beater, Richie Brockleman… uh, Dennis Dugan has shown that he can deliver a simple, smart (even if the content is stupid) comic product.

So, what went so wrong? Well, there is very little evidence of a script that was either ready to shoot or of any interest to the actors involved. Whenever there is a chance to be smart, this movie goes stupid. Worse, the movie's tone flips around like a fish on the deck of the Andrea Gail. Is it farce? Is it a sex comedy? Is it a character piece? And who is the movie about? It's not really about Jason Biggs' character. It's not really about Amanda Peet's character - we know almost nothing about her. If it's about the buddies, we don't know enough about them. All we know if that they all behave oddly. And there is almost nothing in the characters' actions that drive the movie towards logical events.

For instance, we are thrown the idea that Jason Biggs is susceptible to the abusive Amanda Peet because she is so gorgeous. But she not only won't have sex with him, she won't get anywhere near his penis and uses the "I won't have sex before marriage" ploy. It's clearly not sincere because the whole movie has her as evil and conniving. But why?!?! Finally, she explains why she went for a milquetoast like the Biggs character. But why would she ever fight to marry him? And if she likes him because he does everything she asks, why not take it to the comic extreme? This is a comedy right? A guy who is so overly generous that a woman becomes addicted to him (another unexplored idea) would not only give her sexual pleasure but would deny himself to keep her holy. That would have been funny... possibly. He wants her more than anything, yet he won't touch her until after they are married because she said she wants to wait. Raises the tension - also explains why he is desperate to marry her - also sets up the idea that she knows she has control and can use it in a way that is so extreme as to be funny. What do we get in Saving Silverman. None of the above. We get a hand cream and a towel joke. Ha ha.

And please, someone, explain to me why Amanda Peet's character, who hates Biggs' buddies, would wear an open silk blouse with half her boobs hanging out when she goes to their house. (I know - I just sold 100 tickets - damn!)

It's not real easy to make Jack Black and Steve Zahn boring… but they succeed. Both actors are working as hard as they can, but when there is no story structure, it is almost impossible. The genius of Jack Black is that he plays guys who are loud, gross and obnoxious... but almost right. They think they know everything and they almost do. His "thing" is not playing morons. Steve Zahn plays sweet morons quite well. It's almost as though the two actors switched roles and no one noticed. But then again, Zahn is always the guy who is lead, so maybe he took this role to play the guy who leads.

And for the second movie in a row, Amanda Detmer doesn't even make the poster, yet remains one of the few bright spots in the picture. If you want to make a new young star, you need to sell her, folks! Of course, I almost lost faith in Ms. Detmer in her first minutes on-screen. But she finally found her footing. Nonetheless, she is wasted here in what should have been a beat-all role as an about-to-be-nun falling in love. A horny nun-in-waiting is a premise devoutly to be wished. I suggest strongly to Ms. Detmer's management that they stop taking teen films and wait for a couple good roles in arthouse films. Develop a reputation as an actress first. Doing this, she may get a TV series, but her movie career will be over before it begins. And that would be a damned shame.

Amanda Peet also has to watch her back. Simply Irresistible, Body Shots, Whipped, Isn't She Great, Saving Silverman. Not many actors could survive four truly hideous films and a failure like Isn't She Great in just two years. Sure, she was terrific in The Whole Nine Yards. But it wasn't that big a hit. High Crimes and Changing Lanes are in the can and if they don't work, the bloom is going to be way, way, way off the Amanda Peet rose. This girl can do some good work, but she better start choosing more carefully or she'll be waiting around to do Once and Again 2020.

Worst of all, there is almost no visual weight to this film. Dugan, who can at least deliver high-end TV directing, can't seem to get a handle on this movie - not for a scene. Shots don't quite match, pacing speeds up and slows down with no regard to what's happening on screen, surprises are about as visually surprising as the Sony redhead's torch being lit - just terrible. Not even TV grade.

PAGE TWO: Amazon.broke, Quote Following & Hannibal ROTDs