13 February 2001

February 12, 2001 – 6:30 p.m. PST

BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENTS: Okay, I really don't feel like spending too much time picking from a field of nine horses, when the final five in each category will be announced in just a few hours. So, I'll keep it simple. There will be a morning update of the column before noon PST.

THE BIG NINE – These are the only films that I think have a shot at Best Picture and a slew of nominations beyond. Everyone in the business is working from pretty much the same list this year, since there is such a small field. If there is a Best Picture nominee that's not on this list, I will be deeply shocked.

Billy Elliot
Cast Away
Chocolat
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Erin Brockovich
Finding Forrester
Gladiator
Quills
Traffic

FOURTEEN SECONDARY PLAYERS – These are all movies that could end up with multiple nominations, but which I do not think are in play for Best Picture. I wish I was wrong, especially for Almost Famous, Before Night Falls, Pollock and You Can Count on Me… but I doubt I am.

Almost Famous
Before Night Falls
The Contender
Dancer in The Dark
Girlfight
Meet the Parents
O Brother Where Art Thou
Pollock
Requiem For A Dream
Shadow of the Vampire
State & Main
Thirteen Days
Wonder Boys
You Can Count On Me

BEST ACTOR – Lots of guessing here. And Javier Bardem, who is hugely deserving, may be a reach. But here is my guess at the Top Five and at four other legit candidates. From here on, I will mark those candidates I see as locks with a "*."

Javier Bardem - Before Night Falls
Russell Crowe - Gladiator
*Tom Hanks – Cast Away
Sean Connery – Finding Forrester
Geoffrey Rush – Quills

The Others -

Jamie Blanks - Billy Elliot
Michael Douglas – Wonder Boys
Ed Harris - Pollock
Mark Ruffalo – You Can Count On Me

BEST ACTRESS – This is a vulnerable category to sneak attack (as is Supporting Actress). It is as easy to imagine Gillian Anderson or Juliette Binoche in as it is to imagine Cate Blanchett or Ellen Burstyn out. But that's why we are all waiting to find out, right?

*Joan Allen – The Contender
Cate Blanchett – The Gift
Ellen Burstyn – Requiem For A Dream
*Laura Linney – You Can Count On Me
*Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich

The Others

Gillian Anderson - The House of Mirth
Juliette Binoche - Chocolat
Bjork – Dancer in the Dark
Michelle Rodriguez – Girlfight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – A tough, tough category.

*Albert Finney – Erin Brockovich
*Wilem Dafoe – Shadow of the Vampire
*Benecio Del Toro – Traffic
Tobey Maquire – Wonder Boys
Joaquin Phoenix – Gladiator/Quills

The Others

Jamie Blanks - Billy Elliot
Jeff Bridges – The Contender
Rob Brown – Finding Forrester
Robert DeNiro – Meet The Parents
Aaron Eckhart – Erin Brockovich
Gary Oldman – The Contender
Oliver Reed - Gladiator
Fred Willard – Best in Show

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Anything could happen here. ANYTHING! There's not a true lock in the whole group.

Marcia Gay Harden - Pollock
Catherine Zeta Jones - Traffic
Frances McDormand – Almost Famous
Kate Winslet - Quills
Ziyi Zhang – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

The Others

Judi Dench - Chocolat
Marg Helgenberger – Erin Brockovich
Kate Hudson – Almost Famous
Tea Leoni - The Family Man
Anna Paquin – Finding Forrester

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

*Almost Famous
Original Screenplay by Cameron Crowe

*Cast Away
Original Screenplay by William Broyles, Jr.

*Erin Brockovich
Original Screenplay by Susannah Grant

Gladiator
Story by David Franzoni
Screenplay by David Franzoni and John Logan and William Nicholson

*You Can Count On Me
Original Screenplay by Ken Lonergan

The Others –

Best in Show
Original Screenplay by Christopher Guest and Eugene Levy

Billy Elliot
Original Screenplay by Lee Hall

The Contender
Original Screenplay by Rod Lurie

Finding Forrester
Original Screenplay by Mike Rich

Girlfight
Original Screenplay by Karyn Kusama

O Brother, Where Art Thou
Original Screenplay by Joel & Ethan Coen

State & Main
Original Screenplay by David Mamet

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Night Falls
Screenplay by Lazero Gomez Carriles
Cunningham O'Keefe
Julien Schnabel
From the book by Reynaldo Arenas

Meet The Parents
Screenplay by James Herzfeld and John Hamburg
Story by Greg Glienna & Mary Ruth Clarke
Based on another screenplay by Greg Glienna & Mary Ruth Clarke

*Quills
Screenplay by Doug Wright
From his own play

*Traffic
Screenplay by Stephen Gaghan
Adapted from the BBC TV series Traffik

*Wonder Boys
Screenplay by Steven Kloves
From the novel by Michael Chabon

The Others -

Chocolat
Screenplay by Robert Nelson Jacobs
From the novel by Joanne Harris

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Screenplay by Wang Hui-Ling, James Schamus and Tsai Kuo Jun

High Fidelity
Screenplay by D. V. DeVincentis, Steve Pink, John Cusack and Scott Rosenberg
Based on the novel by Nick Hornsby

Pollock
Screenplay by Barbara Turner and Susan J. Enshwiller
Adapted from the books by Steven Naifeh and Gregory White Smith

 

PAGE TWO: Directors, Best Picture & ROTD