Tuesday, 20 February 2001

WEEKEND REVIEW

The Guesstimate gods were working in my favor this weekend… at least with the new movies. Hannibal dropped nearly in half, but that's not really a surprise given the huge opening. This is something on which my thinking has evolved. It is still true that the real phenomena films don't drop this hard. But you can make a lot of money with a film that isn't a real phenomenon if you open big enough. However, that's not always the case. Charlie's Angels and Cast Away both opened with $40 million (give or take a couple hundred thousand). The first ended up doing just over three times that opening. Not a phenomenon. Cast Away is already at more than five times opening. A phenomenon. I suspect that Hannibal is more Angels than Away. But the $40 million of domestic, plus better numbers worldwide, are the difference between strong profits on Hannibal and almost none on Charlie's Angels. And Cast Away? It hasn’t been out anywhere but North America for more than four weeks and it is already nearing $100 million international, may soon become the second highest grossing domestic release of 2000 (though Gladiator's Oscar run could change that), and will surely be number three worldwide amongst year 2000 domestic releases. And all for less production dollars than Mission: Impossible 2, The Grinch or Gladiator. (Gladiator will probably be the most profitable mega-movie of 2000, given the lack of gross-dollar backend players, pushed hard by hit cheapies Scary Movie and Meet The Parents.)

Chris Rock opened Down to Earth on his very own to $17.5 million. That doesn't make him Eddie Murphy or Martin Lawrence or Adam Sandler or Jim Carrey quite yet. However, it does mean that his paycheck for the next movie he signs for will likely hit the eight-figure mark. For a guy who has now opened a grand total of one movie, I'd say that's pretty impressive. And if Paramount pays that price, they'll have only themselves to blame, because selling the movie with almost nothing but Rock will make it very hard for anyone to argue that he isn't worth the money by today's industry standards. More to the point, it's a pretty mediocre movie without a real clear hook. There is no reason to think that Chris Rock in a Big Momma clone wouldn't do damned near as well as Martin Lawrence. He's not a good enough actor to compete with Murphy or Carrey yet. And he's not as well defined as Sandler. (Remember, my contention about Little Nicky was that Sandler did NOT play the classic Sandler role.) But he's well on his way.

On the other hand, there will be many arguments about who opened Sweet November to an estimated $10.6 million and why. Was it Charlize Theron? Was it Keanu Reeves? The combo together again after The Devil's Advocate? The romantic story? The threat of sexual chemistry? Honestly, I don't have an answer that satisfies me. Theron is a movie star, in my opinion. But she hasn't been in the best run. Reeves opened The Replacements to $11 million and the seemingly unopenable The Watcher (What's the title this week, folks?") to $9 million. Maybe we are all underestimating his weight as an opener these days. I know! Lots of people want to write Reeves off. Which is why I'm not satisfied with the obvious answer… it's him. But you know what? It's probably him? Get used to it.

There were three Best Picture nominees in the Top Ten estimates. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was up 63 percent, according to estimates. Traffic was up 48 percent. And Chocolat is looking at 55 percent, according to Miramax's numbers.

THE GOOD & THE BAD: Jeff Wells’ can't-help-but-to-drool reaction to Michael Solomon's first edition of Premiere inspired me to take a long, slow look at the magazine, which is out on stands with Penelope Cruz gracing the cover. Premiere is evolving in a movie coverage universe that is quite different than it was when the magazine started 14 years ago. Entertainment Weekly has become dominant though, in its ascendance, it has softened significantly from its original form. Magazines like Movieline have become indistinguishable from other celebrity-based magazines, pushing style over content. And the formerly staid Time and Newsweek are now regulars in the weekly competition for covers, which not only has them fighting Premiere and Entertainment Weekly and Movieline, but the suddenly multi-tasking TV Guide and GQ and Esquire and everyone else on the planet. There is no escape from celebrity anymore. Finally, there is the web, which has made monthly entertainment publications more dicey still… just ask US.

Okay, so what about the "new" Premiere? Start at the front. What is Penelope Cruz doing on the cover? She has two April movies. I think at least one of them pushed from March into April, but still, Cruz was pretty much covered out by Woman on Top and All The Pretty Horses. She's gorgeous, but seeing her fronting Solomon's first issue is like going back instead of forward.

And the inside of the book is clearly moving in a new direction. Once we get past masthead business, the first movie image is Marley Shelton and her right breast, complete with a distinct acknowledgment of the designer of the see-through yellow chiffon top (Diane Diller, nee Von Furstenberg). About 100 words of copy, including Ms. Shelton's adorable analysis of the size of her eyes. Two Alex Lewin pieces follow, one idealizing Joel Schumacher and the uberhot-but-hasn't-done-a-damned-thing Colin Farrell and the other about how hip Robertson Blvd. is. (No blood splatters on The Newsroom Café coming from New Line next door.) Next, we get shoes, ellipses gossip stories, a photo from the always amusing David Strick and some Elvis movie analysis.

Next is a section called The Studio System. The section leads with a story about the ongoing saga of a Frida Kahlo movie. Well done… seen the story 23 times already. The next hunk, which is a series of bits about movies that were too similar in too close in proximity is also old news. But it is interesting because it is more comprehensive. That's where I would be putting my eggs if I was Premiere… but more on that idea later.

PAGE TWO: More Premiere Analysis & A ROTD Gets Profound.