Monday 5 March 2001

WEEKEND REVIEW

The Mexican opened pretty well, considering the reviews. I would suggest, as I did on Friday, that the reviews were overly harsh in many quarters simply because so many critics are now working on a level that is as simple as a thumb or a numerical count of either "4" or "10." I'm not saying that The Mexican really works. But it is infinitely more ambitious than some deal that got made only because Roberts & Pitt signed on or some film that got screwed up by the director. The kind of film that Gore Verbinski & Co. were trying to make is the very hardest kind of film to make, in my view. It is a dangerous place to go when you have two charismatic stars playing against type, having a love affair that shows little love or chemistry from the start. But it is not inherently fatal. Same with the split story structure, separating his trip from hers. Dangerous, but not inherently wrong. The difference between this working and not working is the difference between rare and medium rare. Not many restaurants can deliver your steak just the way you like it. And if it is too rare for your taste, it can be quite unpleasant. And if you sent it back for more fire, it is likely to comeback overcooked for your taste. But when it is just right, it is glorious. There are places where The Mexican is undercooked and places it is overcooked. Any way you cut it, it's not a very good meal. But some of the side dishes are perfect and parts of the steak are too. And if this same group tried to make this same meal… maybe next time, it could be a feast.

On the business side, Julia Roberts' last five films may have all opened at Number One, but all five are not the same. Erin Brockovich opened to $28.1 million on 2843 screens and went on to generate four and a half times that opening, grossing $125.5 million in it's first run. (The film is now in selected theaters, but given that it is already on cable, I don't expect the film to make more than an additional $100,000, if that, through the Oscar period.) This film, on 2951 screens, with Brad Pitt, estimates a $20.3 million start. What does that mean? It means that Julia Roberts can still open a movie, even if it gets bad reviews and that Brad Pitt didn’t hurt. With no scientific measure possible, I'll credit him with 25 percent of that opening take. My guess is that on pure inertia, The Mexican will generate 2.5 to 3 times its opening or $50 - $60 million… exactly the number I quoted to someone who asked the night of the screening I caught. Would it have done better had it been a better movie? Maybe, but I still don't think it would have been a $100 million movie. But everyone involved would clearly have been happier. This should be said, however. Assuming that DreamWorks really did restrain the costs of the film to $40 million, they made the right decision, in strong, strong opposition to the overly expensive, but brilliant, Almost Famous. This also speaks to the vagaries of the movie business. If Pitt was not willing to take a severe enough pay cut for Almost Famous to make DreamWorks happy, but was on The Mexican, perhaps the difference was that he and his people knew that Julia was also taking a cut to make this film and that he would be the sole movie star on Almost Famous…. perhaps a pay cut on a $40 million movie was more acceptable than a pay cut on a $70 million movie… or perhaps making The Mexican at all was a concession to the mistake the studio made with Pitt on Almost Famous, insuring their future relationship with Pitt.

On a side note, something occurred to me recently. On an issue like this, very few people really know the hard core truth. Theories abound, but all but 6 of us are kind of guessing. For the purposes of this column, what is important to me is asking the questions, almost as much as having the answers. This is what The Hot Button has always been about in its core… ask the questions. Be tough. Don't just pass the story along. Your e-mail reminds me each day that you are out there, asking questions yourselves. And whether we agree or disagree, that makes me happy. Back to your regularly scheduled column…

See Spot Run, estimating $10.2 million, did surprisingly well, though it surely benefited by being the only kids movie in the three weeks since Recess: School's Out to hit theaters.

Amongst the Oscar contenders, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon reported the biggest drop, 28 percent to $ 4.9 million. Traffic and Chocolat reported drops of, respectively, 12 and 13 percent. While the drop for Chocolat remains surprising to the point of disbelief, it is the reduction of Traffic's fall from 32 percent last weekend to 12 percent this weekend that really raises the old eyebrow. On the other hand, Traffic drops have fallen every week since the Oscar nominations hit, so maybe there is something in the Oscar campaign that is really taking hold. But then, I wonder, why is it losing theaters. Questions…

THE GOOD: I read a lot of stuff every week. From the basics that are the trades to the home town coverage of the L.A. Times to the separate but unequal coverage by the New York Times to the gossips to Inside.com to the theoretical competition of Ain't It Cool and Hollywood Confidential. And that doesn't begin to touch on the weeklies and monthlies I masticate on their irregular schedules. So, why is The New York Observer (please link to http://www.observer.com/) so definitively the read I look forward to most? Well, this was an exceptionally good week for the pink-hued paper, so allow me some examples. (One flaw of the website is that it is not good at archiving. So, click on this stuff and save it if you really want to get the full flavor.)

PAGE TWO: The Rest Of The Good & The Rest Of The Column