RANTING & RAVING

I had a rather extraordinary moviegoing experience on Tuesday night… but I have to restrain myself until Friday.   But come back if you like the smell of napalm in the morning.

In the meanwhile, I’ve decided that it is finally time for a summer movie preview. 

MAY - I project that The Mummy Returns will open to $68 million and Shrek will open to…. oh… okay… you want actual insight, not a reportage of what has already happened.  Okay.  Moulin Rouge is the best summer movie that I’ve seen so far.   That includes The Mummy Returns, A Knight’s Tale, Atlantis, Shrek and some other thing with bombs that I can’t talk about right now.  And it doesn’t include art films that have come out or will come out.  So, that tag is not really very valuable. Shrek is Number 2.

Let’s try a different approach.  After Pearl Harbor hits the beach, there are ten legitimate weekend battles to come over eleven summer weekends.  Anything after the second weekend of August is pretty iffy or it wouldn’t be released then.  The potential exceptions to that rule this summer – there is always at least one – are Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back, Apocalypse Now Redux and Ghost of Mars.  (Yes, I’ve given up on Rollerball.)  So…

June 1 – The Animal vs. Moulin Rouge – Will Fox’s two weeks of exclusive release after Cannes pay off or would they have been better off as a Memorial Day weekend alternative to Pearl Horror… oops, did I spell that right?  Anyway, we’ll know that day.  Frankly, Moulin Rouge will have zero effect one way or the other on The Animal, though it could be argued that both films are looking for teens and that the battle of the sexes will take place in the ticket line that weekend.   I’ll predict The Animal opening around $10 million now.  Moulin Rouge, I really can’t say.  Meanwhile, Pearl Harbor wins its second straight weekend.

June 8 - Swordfish vs. Evolution – A really interesting battle.  Both Warner Bros. and DreamWorks are going all out for their movies.  Will it be Die Hard vs. Ghostbusters or just a pale reflection in both cases?  I don’t know.  I haven’t seen the movies.  Hard core action vs. effect comedy is at the core of the battle, no matter how good or bad the films are.  (Remember, opening weekend is almost never about the quality of the film.)   But look for Evolution to pass Swordfish up on rating alone.  PG-13 vs. R means that no matter how many boys line up to take a peek inside Halle Berry’s shirt, more will end up paying to see David Duchovny actually get to finish an X-File.

June 15 – Tomb Raider vs. Atlantis – This is the head to head match-up of the summer.   Two action films.  A computer game franchise versus the Disney franchise.  Tomb Raider wants to work for teenage boys and girls and Atlantis is aiming to reach beyond the smaller kids and into the teen market with its slam bam action.  Pepsi makes it a fairer fight, putting massive marketing bucks behind Paramount’s already heavy P&A expenditures.

June 22 – The Fast & The Furious vs. Dr. Dolittle 2 – Can I just stay home?  I saw the charms of Dr. Dolittle, but I am still amazed by the amount of business that film did.  When it comes to The Fast and The Furious, I must ask one of The Hot Button’s most often asked questions over the years – who the hell is letting Rob Cohen continue to direct feature films??!?!?!  Since Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story, a good movie, Cohen has hacked it up with Dragonheart, Daylight and The Skulls.  Stop him before he makes another crappy movie!!!  ,

June 29 – A.I. vs. Crazy/Beautiful (kind of) – There’s no battle here, folks.  A.I. may be THE summer movie when all is said and done.  Crazy/Beautiful looks like a wannabe R-rated movie that is being forced into a PG-13 package.  But hey, never count out Kirsten Dunst.

July 4 – Scary Movie 2 vs. Cats & Dogs – The dick jokes vs. the bitch jokes.  Your call.  Warner Bros. could be making a very smart movie here, with Atlantis a couple weekends back and the kids of America ready for something new.  Scary Movie 2 is achieving something very special.  It may actually get into theaters before the original arrives on cable.

July 11/13 – Final Fantasy vs. Legally Blonde vs. The Score – Can you feel the lull here?  I love Reese Witherspoon and Robert DeNiro and Ed Norton and will go see anything in which they are appearing.  But I am not the average American.  Final Fantasy will draw the geeks and Sony has a really hard sell to get anyone who isn’t a geek to show up for this one… maybe they’ll succeed. 

July 18/20 – Jurassic Park 3 vs. America’s Sweethearts – Julia vs. The Dinosaurs.  If I were Universal, I’d be moving JP3 up a week into the soft weekend, two weekends after A.I.  JP3 can open really well and be really fun and still get smushed by Planet of the Apes just one weekend later.  The thing about JP3 is that I believe in Joe Johnston.  As for America’s Sweethearts, dying is easy, comedy is hard.  Can Joe Roth finally have a major hit as a director?  Is he a very good director?  I’m not really sure.  But he’s got the golden girl right there up front and if she can’t open his movie, nobody can.

July 27 – Planet of the Apes – Rule the date!  Everyone seems to be afraid of the monkeys.  Get your stinkin’ hands off my summer, you damned dirty apes!  (God, I hope it’s great!)

August 3 – Rush Hour 2 vs. Osmosis Jones vs. Bubble Boy vs. Original Sin – Will anyone survive this weekend?  There may not be a major weekend with more potential for disappointment.  Have people been waiting for the next Chris Tucker movie?  Does Warner Bros. really believe in their animated Farrelly Bros. comedy?  Why is MGM releasing Original Sin and would they even bother if they weren’t trying to surf Tomb Raider’s wake?  And is Bubble Boy the secret late summer comedy smash that no one will see coming?

August 10 – American Pie 2 vs. The Curse of The Jade Scorpion – Is anybody there?  Does anybody care?  American Pie was a little bit of movie magic.  It was hardly genius, but it just kind of felt right and audiences were happy to go.  But do they really want to experience band camp for themselves?  Good question.  How bog a star is Jet Li.  Another good question.  

There are some other major titles that I’ve just written off already: What’s The Worst The Could Happen?, Rollerball, Captain Corelli’s Mandolin, Serendipity, American Outlaws and Sidewalks of New York.  I would love to be wrong. 

And that’s all, folks.  Doesn’t seem very thrilling, does it?  A.I., Planet of the Apes and uh, uh…. well, let’s hope it’s more fu than just that.  How many times can a guy pay for Apocalypse Now Redux? 

READER OF THE DAY:  The English write(s):  From THB 5/22 -  “CHARLTON HESTON will end up remembered primarily for his interest in making sure that people had easy access to weapons of death."

Well, if you're going to play that way...

AL SHARPTON will end up primarily remembered for his interest in making sure African-Americans have more rights than all other Americans.

DAN RATHER will end up primarily remembered for his interest in making sure that people know the truth about how Republicans only win elections through lying and cheating, but Democrats are as clean as a platter at Jack Sprat's fat-licking contest.

JANET RENO will end up primarily remembered for her interest in making sure that people who lead their own religious cult will die horribly with all the men, women and children who follow them.

JANE FONDA will end up primarily remembered for her interest in making sure that more Americans died in Vietnam so it'd be more fair.

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER will end up primarily remembered for showing that no matter how long you're #1, as soon as you slip, the vultures at certain media outlets feel safe to run character assassinations against you.  (Watch for the "truth" about Tom & Nicole's divorce to air in a certain monthly movie magazine around 2006.)

ROBERT DOWNEY JR. will end up primarily remembered for his interest in making Chaplin a good movie.

LARRY KING will end up primarily remembered for his interest in switching subjects in the middle of the bottom of the ninth, two runners on base; did I mention Driven's a brilliant racecar movie?

What?  You don't think Chaplin was DOWNEY's crowning achievement?  What else would overshadow it?  His breakthrough role in The Pick-Up Artist?

BILL BRADLEY will end up primarily remembered for his interest in making sure Al Gore looks less boring than him.

STROM THURMOND will end up primarily remembered for his interest in making sure he was the last founding father to die, though after 212 years in the Senate, he should really retire.

DENNIS RODMAN will end up primarily remembered for his interest in making sure Madonna could at one point be called "the normal one."

TIPPER GORE will end up remembered primarily for her interest in designing those really cool "Parental Advisory: Explicit Lyrics" T-shirts.

DAVID POLAND will end up primarily remembered for his interest in making sure that Charlton Heston's career is nutshelled as a man who was primarily interested in making sure that people had easy access to weapons of death.

JEFF WELLS will end up remembered primarily for his interest in making sure he was first in line to dance on Dave's grave.

Insert winking emoticon here.

The gun thing's a fun thing.  I'm encouraged that Bush is hiring hundreds of prosecutors to actually enforce gun laws.  The gun issue's like the capital-punishment issue or the abortion issue.  If two people who disagree on the subject start debating, not a chance one of them will surrender to the other's viewpoint by the end.  I just think Chuck's a great example of how a conservative can still get work in Hollywood, seeing as how there are so few.”

E ME:  I don’t think Jeff would dance on my grave.  I’ve asked before what you are looking forward to this summer… what films would you like to see buried in a lead-lined vault before they even arrive at theaters?