 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
 |
 |
|
|||||
WEEKEND REVIEW
This was the third straight weekend where the tracking on the top movie was off by 50 percent or more. This is the second straight weekend where I seem to be the only person who picked the Number One film… and I apologized for it as I did it, since I am somewhat of a sucker for the tracking as well. (And for the record, I significantly underestimated The Score and overestimated Final Fantasy by almost 50 percent.)
The point is that I guesstimate the box office every weekend based on a combination of both tracking and my intuition, personal insights, etc, etc, etc. The film business, with the head of the “baby “ shifted from the production department to the marketing department and that head being so oversized that it makes Winona Ryder’s watermelon-on-a-twig beauty seem perfectly proportioned by comparison, is not a science. In fact, it’s not even a real business. Try as the multinationals might to reduce everything into prepackaged luncheon meat, things have never been less predictable.
And don’t get me wrong… this is not one of those rants about how movies suck now. That, in my opinion, is a cheap cop-out used by film critics and “experts” who don’t have the slightest interest in examining the past or current cinema without rose-colored or shit-colored glasses, depending on which era they’re focusing. The underlying fundamental reality that movies have always been driven by money first hasn’t changed. But there is something deeper going on right now. More on that on Wednesday.
Back to this specific weekend…
THE GOOD: Legally Blonde found its audience with great élan. It’s estimating an opening of $2.8 million more than Coyote Ugly, $2.4 million better than Chicken Run and just $3.8 million behind Me, Myself & Irene. That’s a strong opening for Reese Witherspoon, whose only real starring role was in Election – and she had Mathew Broderick too – and never grosses more than $3.2 million in a single weekend. Even her big movies in supporting roles opened much smaller (Cruel Intentions - $13 million, Pleasantville - $8.9 million).
A bigger surprise, to me, is the estimated $19 million for The Score. Word of mouth on the film seems to be very strong, so it may continue as well. But when you consider that Robert DeNiro’s Ronin, which had some great car chases to sell, but “only” opened to $12.7 million and Edward Norton’s Fight Club, which also had Brad Pitt, ”only” opened to $11 million… pretty damned good start. My bet is that the real draw for this film is that it is one-of-a-kind in the marketplace. There is no other thriller out there (at least not in English or that isn’t out of order). And Paramount does a good job with these films, filling the niche in 1999 with The General’s Daughter ($22.3 million opening) and last year with Rules of Engagement ($156 million start).
THE BAD: Cats & Dogs fell a somewhat surprising 47 percent… it had a strong opening, but it is a kids flick and Final Fantasy didn’t exactly steal its audience. Scary Movie 2 also fell harder than one would have expected, off an estimated 56 percent to $9.5 million after a fairly weak start with $20.5 million last weekend. And Shrek, in a fall that should be in its own category after weeks of amazing success, fell out of the Top Ten for the first time, dropping at least 35 percent to a still unknown amount of less than $4 million. Awwwww…
THE UGLY: Plenty to work with here! Let’s start with the ugliest opening of the Summer of 2001 so far. Final Fantasy’s $11.5 million opening wins, hands down. It makes Pearl Harbor seem like Titanic, since Pearl Harbor’s opening weekend will dwarf Final Fantasy’s final domestic total… and it should even get close to making its money back. Disappointed by A.I.’s box office? More on that in a minute, but the costs were about the same (Final Fantasy cost more, but A.I. had a bigger marketing budget), and A.I. started with almost $30 million. If Titan A.E., a movie $30 million - $50 million cheaper than Final Fantasy, with no built-in marketing component to exploit, gets credit for bringing down Bill Mechanic at Fox after opening to $9.4 million – an inaccurate assessment, but one that is popularly held – whose blood is going to be shed at Columbia? The answer? Probably no one. For whatever reason, the Japanese owners of Sony seem to hold John Calley in esteem and appear unwilling to embarrass him by firing him before his contract runs out.
I hold John Calley in high esteem… but his tenure at Sony remains one of the great shocks in the history of the film business. Starting with nearly two full years of releasing pictures from a previous regime, moving into the Sony High period and now into the blur of product in the last year, Calley’s run at the studio is absolutely confounding. David Puttnam failed for all kinds of reasons, but one could never say that he did not have very distinct filmic footprints at the studio… even if they were in oatmeal and not cement. How will we remember John Calley’s recent run at Sony? I wish I could tell you. And for a guy who many consider one of the best minds in the business, ever, that’s a damned shame.
And then, there’s A.I., of an estimated 64 percent in weekend three. Geez! I have problems with A.I., but I never expected this. This ain’t Scary Movie 2. Did you know that Empire of the Sun was never on more than 673 screens? I do, now that I was trying to figure out whether A.I. is indeed the biggest disappointment of Spielberg’s career. Think it’s Always? That film cost less than $30 million to make. And though it, too, was a remake, Spielberg did not have the shadow of an idol looking over his shoulder from beyond.
Understand this… there will be critics who treat this as some have treated Kubrick films. They will continue to say that it is misunderstood and under appreciated for as long as anyone will listen. And one of these years, Film Comment or some such outlet will embrace A.I. as a lost masterpiece. But I will likely remain on the other side of that argument. Yet, I didn’t feel the need to see A.I. crash and burn as it has. Forget the fight for $100 million domestic… $90 million domestic now seems like a reach. There’s nothing artificial about that ugliness.
GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY: Len Schrader and David Weisman appear with Kiss of The Spider Woman at the Egyptian Theater in L.A. this Thursday, in anticipation of the re-release of the film. Meanwhile, in NYC at the Film Forum, The Blue Angel is playing… with a special look at Dietrich’s screen test for the film. And in Chicago on Friday night, Raging Bull is the Midnight movie at the Music Box.
BAD AD WATCH: I’m worn out by all the abuse Sony has drawn in this column lately… so, I’m going to stay away from the double truck ads for Final Fantasy and America’s Sweethearts. If you know what message anyone who isn’t already pre-sold on either film is getting from the ads, let me know.
JUST WONDERING: Have I given proper credit to Harry Knowles for his shredding of Rollerball? I don’t think his review has anything more to do with the move to 1st Quarter 2001 than what everyone else has been saying about this film for months… reporters seem to have forgotten that the film had already been pushed into late August by MGM, having decided that it was not up to a mid-summer release. However, I believe that this marks the first time Harry tore into a film that he was invited to early and with as much crap as he has taken for things like Armageddon Tears and Grinch glop in the past, he deserves equal credit when he does it right… and so it goes.
READER OF THE DAY: Not Madame LaFarge poses and interesting question: “Okay, I've defended A.I. plenty, but it's obvious that the movie isn't going down well with American audiences. Fine, whatever, that's their verdict. I am curious about your take, though, on the film absolutely exploding in Japan, where it's on track for an astonishing 90 million dollars (and is apparently emotionally wiping out Japanese women, specifically). The critical reaction here was largely strong, but the audience reaction speaks for itself. What's the missing factor that explains why it's playing so well there, and so poorly here?
E ME: What do y’all think?
