WEEKEND REVIEW

So, now that “American Pie 2 is here, it’s R, get used to it,” we have the opportunity to have a whole new series of journalistic conversations that miss the point.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Variety’s Carl DiOrio had started a “Pie Spies `R’ Dive” story in case AP2 had come up short.  But instead, we got the “Pie Flies In  Face Of Its R-Rating" (here) hot off the Sunday estimates.  The problem is, this story is as much a non-story as all the heching and pleching over box office for R rated movies has been up until now.  What  film’s R-rated comedy record did AP2 break?  One of last summer’s two, count `em, two R rated summer comedies, Scary Movie, which had a $42.3 million start.  The other film, Me, Myself & Irene, opened with a “measly” $24.2 million.  That’s the kind of trouble that a lot of studios would like for their PG-13 comedies.  Also worth noting, there were only four comedies total amongst the 20 best openers (unless you count The Grinch).  And while I haven’t done the research, I would be willing to bet that R rated comedies made up less than 25 percent of all comedies released last year…. probably a lot less. 

Meanwhile, Hannibal’s $58 million start is all the way down at #6 on the opening parade… but does that have anything to do with its R rating?  No!  Of course not.  It would have been the #3 opening in 2000 and the #2 opening in 1999.  Things have changed.  American Pie 2’s estimated $45.1 million opening would have been #4 at this time last year or in 1999.  Right now, it’s #8 for 2001.  And given that there has been at least one opening amongst the holiday openers to top AP2’s start in both of the last two years (2 last year), I suspect that by the end of the year, a $45.1 million start won’t break the Top Ten Openers. 

So let’s move in to the last big story, the 50 percent-plus drops for the big openers.  Rush Hour 2 was off an estimated 53 percent.  Wow… how not surprising.  The Princess Diaries being off an estimated 39 percent is a lot more of a head turner, as is The Others opening to an estimated $13.6 million on less than 1700 screens.  Monkey Trouble (aka Planet of the Apes) is off an estimated 63 percent… after the second week dive of 60 percent.  Now, that’s a story.  And do you know why it’s a story?  Because it has happened over three weekends… news is news when it is news and not before.  Spotting trends is a worthless exercise if you are spotting eggs before really have the slightest idea of what’s going to hatch.

JUST WONDERING:  How closely has Peter Bart been reading the Hot Button?  (His latest column is here.)

READER OF THE DAY:  C.T. wrote:  “With the success of "Pie 2" it's official...Universal RULED the summer. Owned it. Lock down.  This summer is private property of Universal Studios.  No trespassing. Violators WILL be forced to see Osmosis Jones. Seriously, "The Mummy Returns", "The Fast and the Furious", "Jurrassic Park 3", and now "American Pie 2". Damn, Universal played it right. They spaced the movies out just far enough from each other, marketed the mess out of them, and turned them loose. I can't remember a summer in which one studio dominated so thoroughly. Anyhoo, just wanted to wish you luck in Miami. Long live "The Hot Button". Peace.”

E ME:  Did you get stuck on The Pie?