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I had a horrible moment of clarity yesterday and I started to prepare my column about the industry meltdown that now seems inevitable. I wrote about just that in my “lost column” of April 22 (the day I returned from Bermuda and found that VoicesOfHollywood had gone Asian). It’s my Movie Cold War theory, complete with Mutual Assured Destruction as the underpinning that is creating the sense of safety that a Spider-Man brings, while also assuring that in the long run at least one movie superpower will fall while trying to keep up in the synergy race.
But more on that later this week. What I’ve decided to do today is to do my homework on this summer while you watch. There are 38 studio movies that I consider major releases in the 16 weeks that make up the balance of this summer. Let’s take a look…
May 10
The New Guy – Word has it that the fleas on this dog have choked on the tainted blood.
Unfaithful – A solid drama from Adrian Lyne that is more complex then you might expect. I have no idea whether the film will actually spark debate, as the answer to the moral quandaries seem rather obvious to me… but what do I know? The story of this summer may well end up being some quality studio fare for a change, lost in a sea of heavily hyped mediocrity.
May 16Star Wars: Episode One – Attack Of The Clones – Look for my spoiler-free review tomorrow. It’s going to be huge.
May 17
About A Boy – A terrific film from Nick Hornsby’s novel ) he’s the same guy who wrote the book High Fidelity), directed by the Weitz Bros. and starring Hugh Grant in what may be his best performance ever. Another quality film that is going to have to fight for air. Look for the review either tomorrow or Thursday.
May 24
Enough – Sony releases it’s third film in four weekends… what, are they nuts?!?!?! Double Jeopardy meets Sleeping With The Enemy meets High Crimes… aka A Car Wreck. Perhaps Sony booked this one and The New Guy in these slots to assure that no one will notice that they were even released.
Insomnia – Warner Bros. starts its run of releasing three films in four weekends. Can Chris Nolan deliver another great film? Will anyone rush out to see Al Pacino or Robin Williams as a psycho? Will Insomnia do double the business that Memento did? The answers are soon to come.
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron – Remember when Disney fell into their animated sophomore slump after The Lion King took the all-time crown? DreamWorks is about to go there after their first real animated hit. $80 million is nothing to sneeze at, but…
May 31
The Sum of All Fears – The word on this Phil Alden Robison save of the franchise after Harrison Ford and Phillip Noyce split is excellent. Some say that the first two acts, in which Ben Affleck and Morgan Freeman (no wildcard here) team up, are stronger than the third act that rests on Ben’s shoulders alone. But still… a good movie is a good movie. Apparently, Tom King thinks that The Bourne Identity should have stayed on this date to take on this Tom Clancy franchise. Given the word of mouth, I’d move Bourne farther away, if for no other reason than to spread the summer’s two good adult thrillers out a little more.
Undercover Brother – Will it be the surprise smash of the summer? It sure looks like a sleeper. But until I see the evidence, I can only really be sure of a surprisingly strong opening… so long as The New Guy doesn’t end Eddie Griffin’s career by forcing a government order demanding that all films by anyone associated with The New Guy get burned. (P.S. Is Denise “The White Girl” Richards’ ass being featured on the standee and posters for this film one of the most amusing things this summer? It is to me… and not because of issues of bodaciousness. I’m beginning to think that Richards’ may survive her Bond spin yet. She seems to really have a sense of humor about herself.)
June 7
Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood – Is Ashley Judd going to take home the Oscar for a summer movie? That’s what some people think. Definitely a chick flick, but I like a good chick flick. I am a big Mark Andrus fan… he’s the screenwriter. Can Callie Khouri direct? We’ll see.
Bad Company – Chris Rock and Anthony Hopkins… this will either be the best surprise of the summer or almost completely unwatchable. Well, there’s always Pootie Tang 2.
June 14
The Bourne Identity – Doug Liman is building a quality portfolio. He’s not Soderbergh yet, but Soderbergh was flailing about miserably at the same stage of his career. Can Universal push this one out of the shadow of The Sum of All Fears and the building hype for Minority Report? That’s the challenge.
Windtalkers – It’s here… it’s finally here. How long can a studio sit on a movie before it gets staler than a year old egg?
Scooby Doo – Could be a real dog… could be a CG dog… could be the movie Josie & The Pussycats came within a hair of being. I’m not sure what Warner Bros. was thinking, putting this within a week of Lilo & Stitch, which will dominate the pre-teen audience. The slightly older audience of teens may be hungry, with three weeks since Undercover Brother without a silly summer comedy.
June 21Minority Report – It’s got be better than A.I.! And no matter how huge Men in Black II opens, July 4 weekend will give this Tom Cruise vehicle a mighty, mighty 30 day run. But is this going to be the movie that we are talking about when the summer is over? That’s where the bar really is on this one. Fox’s two-team marketing system means that they shouldn’t suffer Star Wars exhaustion in house and they have a full month and half after launching Unfaithful to take this one to the heights that Spielberg claimed WB failed to achieve with A.I. (It was the movie, Steve.) This could end up being the number three film of the summer.
Lilo & Stitch – This could end up being the number three film of the summer also. This one just smells huge to me. It stinks of revenue. It seems to skew a little young to really become just the second $300 million domestic grossing animated film, the other being The Lion King. But Stitch seems like the most marketable animated character to come out of a movie since Buzz Lightyear.
June 28
Hey Arnold! The Movie – They are programming a Nickelodeon film a week after the Disney juggernaut. Can you say, “Direct-To-Video & $25 million domestic?”
Mr. Deeds – Sony releases its cheapest movie of the summer… just $75 million or so!!! Bad Company’s Chris Rock is the only other early summer comedian with a film. Then again, why is Sony shoving Adam Sandler into the buzzsaw of MIB2, which opens just five days later. July 4 weekend means an expanded audience, but unless word-of-mouth is better than the trailer, people looking for a fun comedy will be hanging with The Fresh Prince and The Old Cowboy.
July 3
Men in Black II – Unless it is really, really bad and we find out really, really early, it will make $175 million or more in the first 15 days. More stories about the great summer of Sony. More stories about John Calley making his exit on a high note… reputation saved by a spider and two guys.
The Powerpuff Girls Movie – One of my most anticipated summer films… and I can’t begin to imagine this film making a dent in the summer box office. It would have to do the same magic trick that Beavis and Butthead Do America did... taking a magnificent one-joke premise and raising it beyond all reasonable expectations. I don’t get the feeling that they are even trying to do that here.
July 12
Road to Perdition – The only “real” movie this weekend. The Sum of All Fears, The Bourne Identity and Windtalkers have all had a few weeks with the adults and here is the only major “adult” film of the summer, just waiting to hit a homer. Looking at the summer laid out in front of me, DreamWorks looks pretty smart to have made this move… and Miramax looks like it made a bit of a mistake by not fighting harder for position with Gangs of New York. Only idiots bet against Tom Hanks.
Blue Crush – Michelle Rodriguez in a bikini… can they get the DVD out before summer ends?
Crocodile Hunter – I really didn’t want to list this one…
Reign of Fire – Your basic fire-breathing dragon movie… it better be good or it will be this summer’s Dragonheart.
July 19Stuart Little 2 – Sony’s fifth major release in twelve weeks. And their most dangerous release of the summer. With P&A, they’ll be in for almost $200 million. The Sony team better be ready to fight for this one, because they need a $100 million-plus gross and they have one weekend before they face the double attack of Disney’s The Country Bears, which skews to young children and New Line’s Austin Powers sequel, Goldmember, which skews to every kid I know over the age of 9. If Sony is well on the way to the first billion dollar domestic summer ever, people will forget. Hey, you know what… people will forget. But one would hate to see a sour note end Calley’s first good summer under the steam of his own movies.
K19: The Widowmaker – By instinct, I must ask, “How will Kathryn Bigalow screw this up?” This director makes beautiful looking movies and they always fall short on storytelling. Of course, the great irony would be if Paramount got to have a Jack Ryan franchise hit and also a Harrison Ford submarine hit. Gotta see the movie before we know.
Eight Legged Freaks – Can Kari Wuhrer actually have a mainstream hit? Does Warner Bros.’ decision to move this film into primetime show faith or just a cheap way of trying to exploit the Spider-Man phenomenon? And why did Sony pass on an idea that could have been exploited better by the Spider Studio than by anyone else? Who knows? So long as it doesn’t suck.
Halloween: Resurrection – Jason X will do under $20 million… look for Miramax/Dimension to push this one into October.
July 26Austin Powers in Goldmember – Hard to handicap this one. You know there’s going to be a lot of interest, but until we start seeing scenes from the movie, we won’t know how long we can wait for the video.
The Country Bears – No one over 8 that isn’t accompanying someone under 8 or looking to get on the local news will be at the theater for this one. But that didn’t keep Inspector Gadget from grossing more than $80 million a few years back. My bet is that Disney’s breakeven on this one is around $40 million at the box office. After that, all gravy.
August 2
Signs – Sha-lama-lama-ding-dong… ooh-mow-mow… sorry, in an Animal House reverie. (Notice how the gross-out teen comedies disappeared this summer after no one went last summer?) M. Night Shyamalan is back at it and he has Mel Gibson by his side this time. This guy knows how to pick movie stars. He’s probably still making extended length versions of The Twilight Zone, but as he picks up the editing pace a little, a good T-Zone starring Mel will be enough to push the $200 million envelope.
XXX – Hey, Vin Diesel in the Harrison Ford/Fugitive slot… cool! Vin apparently thinks he deserves to get paid like Ford. Now he’ll have to prove it. And he’ll have to beat up on Mel “The Unbeatable Box Office Guy” Gibson to do it. Better get a few minutes with the Scharzenator in his T3 trailer, brushing up on how to charm America with Jay and Dave and even Conan and Craig. Hell, better make that Oprah call now. Rob Cohen has never made two watchable movies in a row, so this could be a breakthrough in all kinds of ways.
Full Frontal – Last I checked, Miramax still had this slightly experimental romp by Steven Soderbergh and a group of celebrity actors on the schedule here. But we’ll see if it sticks.
August 7
Spy Kids 2 – Roberto Rodriguez is the beige Walt Disney. Looks like another hit to me.
August 16
Pluto Nash – Eddie Murphy is great… Pluto Nash has been shelf material for a long, long time.
Simone – Andrew Niccol’s virtual babe flick has also been gathering dust. A prime candidate for another move unless Insomnia takes off and raises the heat around Al Pacino.
The Tuxedo – Jackie Chan teams up with Jennifer Love Hewitt… what is high-flying action for him is probably just an opportunity to watch her jump up and down for the boys out there. But who knows... it could be fun. The premise is that the super suit makes the man. Why not?
Master of Disguise – Yes, Dana Carvey has recovered from his heart surgery. No, no one will pay to see him without the blonde wig and the other guy. So unless he’s secretly taken a role in Goldmember, don’t expect to see this one until the kids pick it up at the video store.
Okay… that’s it. How about two Top Ten lists – one for box office, another for quality? On the quality list, there should be a load of independent films, of course. But they’ll just have to wait for another column. And remember, I have only seen a handful of these films. So be kind when you e-me.
TOP TEN BOX OFFICE FILMS – SUMMER 2002
9c. Mr. Deeds - $85 million
9b. XXX - $85 million
9a. K19: The Widowmaker - $85 million
9. Stuart Little 2 - $85 million
8. The Sum of All Fears - $105 million
7. Goldmember - $140 million
6. Signs - $145 million
5. Minority Report - $155 million
4. Lilo & Stitch - $165 million
3. Men In Black II – $245 million
2. Spider-Man - $360 million
1. Attack of the Clones - $420 millionBEST TEN MAJOR FILMS – SUMMER 2002.
10. The Sum of All Fears
9. Lilo & Stitch
8. Goldmember
7. Signs
6. The Bourne Identity
5. Attack of the Clones
4. Spider-Man
3. The Road To Perdition
3. About A Boy
1. Full FrontalAll things considered, this summer may not suck after all..
E ME: What’s your take on Summer 2K+2?
