No real surprises this weekend, except that some box office forecasters got sucked into a late suggestion that Bad Company was building steam.  Well, I guess it was… steam… just steam.

The horrifying news of the weekend was that Bad Company’s position as the worst movie of the year is about to be usurped, just one weekend later, in a very tight race between two new releases.  Of course, I can’t tell you what movies I’m talking about, as embargo dates must be respected. 

What kind of soda do you like?  Diet Dr. Pepper is calling my name this week, but Mountain Dew is always interesting.  You know what they say in their commercials… Do The Dew!!!

The other one is Windtalkers… sorry, too much work to play charades with that one.  Hell, they couldn’t even come up with an excuse for the title in the movie itself.

Anyway, Bad Company tanked.  As far as I can tell, Jerry Bruckheimer has never once had a film do as badly as Bad Company.  Even the misses, like Young Doctors in Love, matched their production costs at the domestic box office.  Pearl Harbor and Armageddon were insanely expensive, so that even with huge worldwide grosses, they made almost no money.  But they did gross those dollars and they did draw attention to Disney.   This movie was loaded with problems… an embarrassment to virtually everyone involved.  (The music was good… that’s it.)  But one miss after so many Bruckheimer successes should be forgotten and forgiven. 

The Divine Secrets of the Ya Ya Sisterhood opened to a genteel $16.4 million by estimate.  WB’s Dan Fellman is gamely suggesting that the film will find its legs and, as the only true female skewed release all summer, maybe it will be leggier than some of the heavy action stuff that’s battling it out every weekend.  That said, $50 million is a long way away. 

The top dog this weekend was once again The Sum of All Fears, estimating a new-millenium-moderate drop of 40 percent.  My first instinct was to say that Sum would be the first film this year to open with less than $45 million and to cross the $100 million barrier domestically.  But then I remembered that this was 2002 and I checked the trend history this year.  The movie that seems to best approximate Sum’s numbers is Columbia’s Panic Room, which opened to $30.1 million and fell 39 percent in its second weekend to $18.2 million. That puts Sum $3.3 million ahead after two weekends, though still based on estimates, so it will likely be even closer.  Panic Room left domestic theatrical release with $95.2 million.  And it didn’t have Minority Report breathing down its neck.  We’ll see what happens. 

For the trend watchers, note that three films besides The Sum of All Fears have opened over $30 million and not hit $100 million this year - Panic Room, The Scorpion King and Blade II.  Last year, there was only one such film, America’s Sweethearts, though A.I. came close to a $30 million start ($29,352,630) and ended up under $80 million domestically. 

I would bet cash money that Minority Report and Lilo & Stitch are the summer’s next $100 million movies.  But both could realistically open over $40 million two weekends hence.  I don’t know about $45 million each.  The summer is just getting interesting. 

Finally, Sony is reporting a 30 percent drop for Spider-Man this weekend… their lowest drop to date.  Projecting out 30 percent weekend drops the rest of the way and M-Th grosses at about 50 percent of the weekend total, Spider-Man would hit $400 million in seven or eight more weekends.  If the drop remains in the 40 percent range that would be expected, they won’t hit $400 million domestic unless they push it in a re-release.  In hard dollars, the $400 million figure means little to Sony.  But we live in the land of images.  Stay tuned.

DUELING BRUCKHEIMERS:  A reader pointed out an odd journalistic anomaly this weekend.  Both Gitesh Pandaya aka Mr. BoxOfficeGuru and Reuters Bob Tourtellotte led their weekend box office projections with the Bruckheimer (Jerry) vs. Bruckheimer (Bonnie) battle ahead of the films that they each produced.  But it was weirder than that…

Tourtellotte wrote - 

“Forget Lakers vs. Nets and Tyson vs. Lewis. Forget basketball and boxing.

A bigger battle is brewing at movie box offices as producer Jerry Bruckheimer and his thriller "Bad Company" takes on his ex-wife, producer Bonnie Bruckheimer, and her "Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood" in theaters around the United States.

Pandaya wrote –

“THIS WEEKEND Forget Lakers vs. Nets, Tyson vs. Lewis, or even India vs. Pakistan. The big confrontation will take place at the multiplexes as Bruckheimer takes on Bruckheimer in a blue-versus-pink battle for box office supremacy.  Super-producer Jerry unleashes his annual summer slam-bang actioner with Bad Company while ordinary producer Bonnie counters with the femme-driven comedy Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood.”

I guess that whatever points Gitesh scored for not pandering to his readers and explaining that the Lakers & Nets play basketball and that Tyson & Lewis are boxers were lost to the rather bizarre choice of comparing a box office fight to the potential third use of nuclear weapons in the history of man… particularly considering the movies involved. 

Great minds think alike… I’m still yawning…

SPEAKING OF LAKE SHOW JOURNALISM:  Shaq O’Neal was on a roll after the game on Friday night.  In the live televised press conference, Shaq explained how Sacramento’s Rick Adelman inspired his game that night.  “I was sitting there, trying to take a dump,” said Shaq, before explaining that Adelman was on his bathroom TV complaining that O’Neal had committed foot fouls when throwing free throws during their series.  But Shaq kept repeating, “I can’t even take a dump without getting criticism.”  He said it three times, breaking the room up every time.  And not a single newspaper reported exactly what he said.

One Los Angeles Times reporter snuck the word “dump” into a paragraph before telling a dump-free version of the story that Shaq told, probably his way of protesting his editors’ shyness with excremental activities.  But while the important debate lingers about whether the Boston Phoenix should be linking to a website that has an edited tape of Daniel Pearl’s execution, this piece of high comedy seems pretty tame.  It was the funniest thing I have ever heard from Shaq, including his running gag about being The Big “fill-in-the-blank” last year… even better than him describing the troubles he has faced in his career and including Dennis “Fucking” Rodman.  It was the quote of the day in a series that is desperate for any copy worth printing.  It should be a part of his legend.   But instead, it will remain a testament to political correctness. 

MORE ON DUNCES:  When I read about Miramax’s pick-up of the option on A Confederacy of Dunces, something was nagging me in the back of my head.  Over the weekend, I realized that it was Steven Soderbergh’s classic Faver & Faber book, Getting Way With It, which is sub-titled, The Further Adventure of the Luckiest Bastard You Ever Saw. 

Soderbergh is quoted in the Charles Lyons story in Variety as saying, “Scott (Kramer)'s unflagging passion for this project should be a lesson for anyone attempting to bring challenging and outrageous material to the screen. Should I mention that I am a salaried executive producer on the film?”

Indeed, Dunces is a recurring theme in Soderbergh’s book, written back in 1996.  He was trying to figure out whether to sue Paramount, which had brought him in on the project and rejected his draft, which a number of other studios were anxious to greenlight… including Miramax.  Amazingly, his note about Miramax - “they’d make it right now” - is dated June 23, twenty days short of six years before Miramax finally got the rights from Paramount and announced their intention to make the movie. 

Also in play in Soderbergh’s book is Human Nature, the Charlie Kaufman screenplay that Soderbergh wanted to direct with David Hyde Pierce, Chris Kattan and Marisa Tomei.  Miramax was interested in Liev Schreiber for Puff, the role finally played by Rhys Ifans, who was not on the Hollywood radar yet, pre-1999s Notting Hill.  The other two roles went to Tim Robbins and Patricia Arquette.  Quite a different movie, all in all. 

If you haven’t read Soderbergh’s book, read it.  Along with William Goldman’s Adventures in the Screen Trade, it is on top of the movie book mountain. 

ROEP-A-DOPE:  Every once in a while, thanks to Matt Drudge, I get the urge to check out the column work of Richard Roeper.  It’s almost always a mistake.  In this case, his most recent movie-related column – he mostly writes about local Chicago events and pop culture – he starts with an interesting premise… that Blacks in Hollywood have not overcome just because they won a couple of Oscars.  Fair enough.

But Roeper shows his lack of historical perspective in the movie world by beating out a commentary about 2002 and Oscar potential for black actors on his drum.  He writes:

“Of the more than 100 movies I've seen in 2002, only one lead performance by a black actor stands out as something that might be mentioned come nomination time: Samuel L. Jackson in ‘Changing Lanes.’

In the Supporting Actor category, Forest Whitaker in ‘Panic Room’ and Morgan Freeman in ‘The Sum of All Fears’ will probably muster some support, but they'll be longshots for even a nomination.”

Uh, none of the above.  Not a chance.  Not one.  But that makes Roeper’s case, no?  No.

The problem is that of the more than 100 movies Roeper has seen this year, he sees these and, it seems, Frailty, About a Boy, Insomnia, Unfaithful and We Were Soldiers as the movies with Oscar potential. 

Still… none of the above.  Well, very limited of the above.  Insomnia will get a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay.  Diane Lane has a shot at a Best Actress nod.  That’s it. 

Then, Roeper brings up Juwanna Mann and Undercover Brother as the two recent “black” movies he’s seen.   He skirts embargo breakage on Juwanna Mann, but you can be sure that his thumb will be pointed down when it comes time to review the film.  And on Undercover Brother, he condescends to say that the film is “not unfunny,” but then proves that he just doesn’t get it when he questions whether a storyline joke about a Colin Powell-like potential presidential candidate decides to open a chicken franchise instead… when drugged by white people who are trying to keep black people down… get it?!?!?!  

Then, he degrades other roles that Eddie Griffin, Denzel Washington, Wesley Snipes and Aaliyah have played this year as “Two criminals and two vampires.”  But he neglects to mention that in The New Guy, Griffin plays the guy who makes the white geek cool. In John Q, Washington plays a sympathetically desperate man who is trying to keep his son alive. In Blade, Snipes controls the first major black action series, pulling in an eight-figure payday.  And in Queen of the Damned, Aaliyah fronted a major release and was on her way to an even bigger WB franchise with the Matrix sequels. 

He also forgets that John Q and Blade II -- as well as Snow Dogs, a Disney hit that goes unmentioned in his column, which was sold based exclusively on its gimmick and its black star, Cuba Gooding, Jr. --  are all still in the Top Ten for the year.  (Do we think there is any coincidence that Roeper left out the one studio film starring a black man that was produced by the studio that signs his weekly checks?)

Then of course, there are the mixed race stars, like The Rock (currently at #6 for the year), Samantha Mumba (The Time Machine, #12) and Vin Diesel of the highly anticipated XXX.

Eddie Murphy goes unmentioned for Showtime, while he picks on Teck in the idiotic Artisan pick-up, Van Wilder.  He smacks Morgan Freeman for playing “the wild card” in the hideous High Crimes, while talking him up for an impossible Oscar nod for The Sum of All Fears.  And he brings up The Cat’s Meow, a period film about William Randolph Hearst and his friends, in what can be considered nothing less than a smug reach for a guy without enough evidence to win his argument. 

I guess the fact that Men in Black II and Like Mike are premiering on the same day is a conspiracy by white Hollywood.  And when Road to Perdition arrives, let’s all get a petition started to complain about the lack of blacks in positive roles in that period piece.  (Forget for a second that white stars Tom Hanks and Paul Newman play murderers.) 

The funny thing is, there is a good argument for the existence of a Hollywood ghetto.  And there is a good argument for the idea that blacks and mixed race actors are making some breakthroughs against Hollywood’s predetermined ideas of who sells tickets to a mass audience.  So, I agree with some of what Roeper proposes, as I agreed with some of what Patrick Goldstein proposed in his Rock/Diesel piece in the L.A. Times a couple of weeks ago.  But both pieces are questionable because they both overreach and mislead the public. 

The thing about the Roeper article that first caught my eye was that he was complaining that not enough black actors had Oscar-type roles, while things were going so well for white actors.  But the thing is, he can only muster the names of four movies with performances by white actors that he thinks are Oscar bait.  Four out of more than a hundred.  Quality is hard to find for white actors too.  (And of his list, only Diane Lane has a shot at a nomination – and only because she is a woman.  Not because her performance is anything less than magnificent, but because the movie did soft business, and with the dearth of great roles for women, only a woman has a legit shot for a nod for a movie that does soft business, no matter how good she is.) 

Anyway, I had no intention of writing this much about such a non-issue.  But there is nothing I like better than controversial positions that are well supported and nothing that pisses me off more than false controversies created by people who don’t seem to really believe in what’s inside the pot they are stirring.  Read the whole commentary here.

ANOTHER CHICAGO WRITER:  The always-compelling Ray Pride (who might kill me for calling him “another Chicago writer” after writing about Roeper) writes about the sounds of the city in this week’s New City.  If you are a little sick of all the noise in your life, take a read. 

AD WATCH:  Interesting that the ads for XXX say that they film is “From Revolution Studios” and not from Columbia or Sony.   Hmmm…

READER OF THE DAY:  Happy Laker Boy writes:  “David, last Friday, Bill O'Reilly ran a special on Hollywood and their cultures of politics (being largely left wing, that is).

It was a nice segment, as he was very rational and provided a nice in depth look about it(he's almost always entertaining and to the point, which is why I really like him, despite his huge "spin" on everything), but here's when he went hogwash about it...

At the end of the segment, he tried to imply that moviegoers will more likely shy away from movies/tv shows of actors w/ politics they disagree with, and pointed out that 76% of those polled online by the Hollywood Reporter tended to agree(which was reported by them the week b/f).

I'm sorry, but I just don't get it. No matter how hateful and spiteful politics Rosie, Alec, and Heston may spit out, their careers seem to be going just fine. It wasn't like there was a big boycott on Pearl Harbor. Rosie's career has tanked, but that was for d/f reasons(and KMart has went down the toilet for various other reasons other then her attacking Tom Selleck). And, FWIW, where WAS the boycott on Ocean's 11, w/ George Clooney attacking Bill O'Reilly on that whole Red Cross thingy?

IOW, it seems to me that the American public doesn't seem to know, or even care what these celebs do when they're offscreen, as box office receipts are continuing to climb at record heights. And the Hollywood Reporter is all of a sudden coming out saying celebs are realizing that their politics are hurting the studios' box office, and that they're being pressured to keep their mouths shut?

And what's most surprising of all is that the likes of Brad Pitt and Bruce Willis are barely mentioned 'cause both HAVE made disparaging comments about Clinton/Gore.

I was just wondering what your opinions were on this matter.”

E ME:  I’ll offer my opinion tomorrow… what do the rest of you think now?