I have seen the future of movie stardom and her name is Ellen Pompeo…

I wish I could say that I was the first to discover the star quality that Brad Silberling and casting director Avy Kaufman are about to see skyrocket because of their vision.  But some guy named Steven Spielberg gave her a small role in Catch Me If You Can and she’ll turn up in Mark Steven Johnson’s Daredevil. 

She is not Kaufman’s first discovery.  She also found Adam Hann-Byrd for Jodie Foster’s Little Man Tate, cast Tobey Maguire in his breakthrough role in The Ice Storm, put Sean Patrick Thomas in Save The Last Dance, gathered together the surprising cast of Dancer in the Dark and worked on a TV show called “The Job,” where a little-seen actress named Ellen Pompeo did a guest spot.  And now, Ms. Pompeo is going to be a movie star.

But I’m getting ahead of myself…

Brad Silberling has made three movies.  All three have involved the presence of the dead in the lives of living people, trying to get on with their lives.  The first was Casper… a not-very-good movie that was, obviously, meant for children.  When Silberling remade Wim Wenders’ Wings of Desire as City of Angels, the critics’ heads started spinning like Regan MacNeil and some knives came out.  (That didn’t keep Pablo Villaca from saying, “Uma pequena pérola que faz jus ao filme no qual foi inspirada."  But I digress…) 

I thought City of Angels was a well-made weepie.  But in Moonlight Mile, Silberling comes of age as a filmmaker to be reckoned with.  Expect this film to be a serious Oscar player from its release in late September all the way through the awards season.  Jake Gyllenhaal has finally found the role that should answer the critics who have wondered what all the fuss is about.  He has a real shot at an Oscar nomination.  Susan Sarandon is a shoe-in for a Best Supporting Actress nod.  (She also co-produced the film.)  And while Dustin Hoffman is terrific… I don’t know.  There is always a boatload of competition for Best Supporting Actor and this is not a showy performance… but maybe. 

And then there is Ms. Pompeo, who is a taller, straighter, quieter Renee Zellweger… no offense to Ms. Zellweger, who may well be in Oscar contention herself this winter if she steals the show in Chicago.  But there is an energy that is different between a great actress and second-tier movie star and the top players.  And I saw that in Ms. Pompeo the very first time Silberling and DP Phedon Papamichael’s camera caught her.  This is not a “oh-my-god-is-she-hot” thing.  She is hot, but…  This is a movie star thing.  Seeing her on screen is like watching a racehorse run and being so drawn in by the sheer beauty of the physicality and movement that you don’t even notice that your horse has won the race going away.  Trust me.  You’ll see.

The movie is about a mother and a father and a fiancé who have lost their girl.  (I only use the word because it is used by Sarandon in the film.)  The fourth seat at this emotional bridge table is filled by Ms. Pompeo, whose character I don’t want to describe, since discovering her story is such a delight.  It’s a delight because of the performance, but also because of Mr. Silberling’s script and direction.

Silberling is, right now, the film world’s master of touch… literally.  Watching his work, in this film and in City of Angels, is to be aware of such delicate intimacies.  Remember the heat around the clay wheel scene in Ghost.  I would argue that it wasn’t the sex, but the physical intimacy.  And I can’t think of anyone who is doing that better right now than Silberling.  You feel the tips of fingers lingering, caressing, yearning… it’s quite beautiful.  And unashamedly emotional.  If I were a woman, I’d be looking for a man like Silberling.  As a man, I can only hope to make a woman feel like Silberling’s women feel on screen… to have that intimacy. 

The story is based, according to a variety of sources, on Silberling’s own experiences after losing his then girlfriend Rebecca Schaeffer to an act of sudden violence in 1989.  That explains, perhaps, his fascination with love and loss.  But the movie isn’t maudlin.  It is heavy, but it never grabs you by the collar trying to force you to feel.  It brought to mind losses in my life… family, loves, friends.  Silberling understands those moments intimately.  The little things that stay with you… the big things you just can’t face… the emotional swings… the pain… the relief… it’s all there.  But Silberling also understands moving on.

I really loved this movie.  Didn’t see it coming, even as I snuck into it via some Harry Knowlesian spy techniques.  (Don’t get me started!)  With everyone… even the stars… working just as actors, this is a movie that will have to build an audience.  Disney is releasing it on the coasts and then going wide a week later.  But I suspect that it will find a place in the heart of anyone who has lost and gone on to live and love again… or at least those who are willing to open themselves up to that emotional ride. 

I’ll be looking forward to taking another look at the film up in Toronto next month.  (Note to Disney – You want a 3pm screening… not too early in the morning and not at the end of along cranky day.)  Congratulations, Mr. Silberling.  You have proven that you deserve to be considered in the top group of dramatic filmmakers working today.

DIRTY WORK:  I found this film to be, above all else, sad.

Sad because I have long been a Clint Eastwood fan, in front of and particularly behind the camera.  I remember when Hollywood wrote him off after the three-movie run of Pink Cadillac, White Hunter, Black Heart and The Rookie.  But I was still a believer in Eastwood and I was rewarded by a magnificent run of Unforgiven, In The Line of Fire, A Perfect World (huge overseas, in particular) and The Bridges of Madison County.  Then came a more unfortunate run of Absolute Power, True Crime and Space Cowboys.  But for me, Blood Work is the low point in Eastwood’s career. 

Eastwood has always been a simple director.  He shoots great actors delivering great lines and makes them the old-fashioned way, clean and on-schedule.  But when he has set up his simple shots, he has shown extraordinary taste.  Look at the good run… Gene Hackman, Morgan Freeman, Richard Harris, John Malkovich, Kevin Costner and Meryl Streep.  Even in his bad run after that… Hackman, Ed Harris, Scott Glenn, Dennis Haysburt, Judy Davis, Laura Linney, James Woods, Isaiah Washington, Lisa Gay Hamilton, Diane Venora, Donald Sutherland, Tommy Lee Jones, James Garner, etc, etc, etc. 

Eastwood has also had a wonderful sense of darkness, from the precursor of Fatal Attraction, Play Misty For Me, to the Dirty Harry series to Tightrope to Bird, Eastwood has been willing to look at the dirty side of American life without flinching. 

Blood Work is just a walk in the park… he’s hired some good actors, but they are wasted.  The cinematography by first-time Tom Stern, a highly experience lighting guy, is not on the same level as long-time Eastwood D.P. Jack Green.  With due respect to Tina Lifford, in the old days, Eastwood would have been the guy to bring the great New York actress Viola Davis to Hollywood.  Instead, Steven Soderbergh is going to get credit for hiring her for Solaris. 

Worse, I knew, without knowing the book or reading any notes, exactly where the story was going, who did the murder and why, within about 10 minutes.  How?  Because nothing in a film just happens to be there.  There is always a reason.  And in the absence of a reason being given by the film, the reason must be the punchline.  I don’t want to give the film’s secrets away… some of you will see it and there are a number of critics who liked the film… but Eastwood on top of his game wouldn’t have made it so easy or so painful to watch as the characters squirmed around the obvious for a full hour before catching on. 

Eastwood has been a great actor and director.  And he may deliver another great film some day.  But about now, I feel like its time for the big man to move along.  And that is, for me, extraordinarily sad.

PREVIEW ADD:  It’s still not on the schedule, but everyone seems to expect Lars Von Trier’s Dogville to make it into the Oscar race with Nicole Kidman leading the way.

WEEKEND PREVIEW:  For the third weekend in a row, a really, really big movie.  How big?  My guess is as good as your guess. 

The real story of the weekend will be Spy Kids 2 versus Signs, both films under the Disney roof, albeit mainstream Disney vs. Miramax.  There is a very good chance that XXX’s draw, combined with mixed reactions to Signs (do you think the strategic shift in advertising is a coincidence?), combined with a strong start to the Spy Kids sequel, grabbing a lot of the non-Vin dollars out there will push Signs to #3 in weekend two. 

Regardless, Signs should pass the $100 million mark on Saturday, Goldmember is looking like it’s going to have to squirm its way to $200 million, Road to Perdition will pass $80 million today and Stuart Little 2 will pass $50 million.

WEEKEND GUESSTIMATES

XXX – 3374 venues – new - $53 million
Signs - 3310 venues – off 48 percent - $31.3 million
Spy Kids 2 – 3307 venues – new - $29.4 million
Goldmember – 3508 venues – off 54 percent - $15.2 million
Blood Work – 2525 venues – new - $7.2 million
Master of Disguise – 2568 venues – off 57 percent – $5.4 million
Martin Lawrence Runteldat – 774 venues – off 40 percent - $4.4 million
Road to Perdition – 2211 venues – off 40 percent - $4 million
Men in Black II – 2076 venues – off 48 percent - $2.5 million
My Big Fat Greek Wedding – 723 venues - off 20 percent - $2.4 million

READER OF THE DAY:  THE CAPTAIN writes:  “You really should've seen this coming, man... of COURSE XxX was going to suck. The proof was right there in the trailer. Lots of stuff getting blowed up, Vin Diesel mugging for the camera and the blatantly aggressive thug-rock soundtrack... what on earth made you (let alone the rest of the Internet community) think that this would be anything more than an out-and-out mediocrity? I have no doubt that Vin is going to be a big movie star someday, but never for a minute did I really believe that working with Rob Cohen was going to get him there. 'Nuff said.”

And McGLT counters:  “I actually find Rob Cohen's HBO Rat Pack very watchable.  I find myself watching it almost every time it's on.  So I disagree that he can't direct.  I will definitely see XXX on opening day and I still think everyone's underestimating it's BO.  I think it could easily do $70M or more and will have legs regardless of critical reception.  I'd be very surprised if it doesn't top 200M.”

And NOT SCOTT CROSSFIELD signs an old refrain: “Having been a huge Star Wars fan for the last twenty-two years (I was three years old when My mother took me to see The Empire Strikes Back), I am more than a little disturbed by the box office performance of AOTC, not to mention critical and audience reaction to the film.

Although flawed, I can't truly convince myself that either AOTC or TPM are inferior to the original trilogy in terms of quality.  For the past three years, I've maintained that it is our sensibilities that have changed over the past quarter century, and not Lucas storytelling ability .

Well, anyway here we are.  The summer is almost over and AOTC has made "only" 298 million.  What exactly does this mean?  Are we Star Wars fans really deluding ourselves?  Do the new films really suck that bad?  And, more importantly, how does all of this bode for EP 3? 

These questions have been bothering me all summer long.  The Star Wars trilogy began my love affair with movies in general.  After the way AOTC was received by critics and audiences, I feel like I'm watching an old beloved uncle being tortured to death by other family members who feel he's out-lived his usefulness.

What do you think?”

E ME:  I think that George Lucas is going to take the $400 million in profits from Episode Two and actually build the world’s tiniest violin for himself.  And then, he’ll take the  $600 million in profits from Episode One and buy a round for the guys at the bar.  And then, he’ll take the $500 million in profits from Episode Three and buy Croatia so he can cover it in green screen. 

What do the rest of you think?