The Hot Button by David Poland

It was Chanukah at the box office this weekend…

For those of you who don’t know, Chanukah is the jewish festival of lights, because, as the story goes, there was no oil for the everlasting light in the temple and the oil that should have burnt out lasted eight days and eight nights. (This was the simple version… please no letters on the Chanukah story.) A miracle.

In the last couple of weeks, there has been press backlash about Road to Perdition and the idea that it has somehow underperformed this summer. As I wrote last week, I think Road to Perdition deserves to hold its head high regardless. But I guess it would hold its head higher if it grossed $100 million before Oscar campaigning begins. And lo and behold, even while losing 297 screens, Road to Perdition had its best hold ever, estimating an 8.9 percent drop, when its previous best was 27.9 percent.

Miracle or fate?

I don’t know. All I do know is that if Perdition had continued to drop at 35 percent a week this week and every other week for another two months, the film still would have come up about $2 million short of $100 million. (Note that the film had dropped 36 percent last week and 41 percent the weekend before.) After this week’s estimate, the film can drop 40 percent the rest of the way and hit $100 million in about 6 weeks.

Miracle or fate?

Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me grossed just under $206 million after opening with $57 million. So after opening with $73 million, there’s been a sense that Goldmember might be a disappointment if it didn’t pass the last sequel. But after two straight drops of 58 percent, that seemed to be what New Line was stuck with… even if they were making a fortune on the film regardless of that perception. BAM! Suddenly, a report of an estimated 33.4 percent drop in weekend four.

Miracle or fate?

I don’t know. All I do know is that with 50 percent drops, Goldmember wouldn’t have gotten to $190 million. And if the film returns to form next weekend and starts dropping 50 percent each week after this bump, it will still fall short of The Spy Who Shagged Me. However, if the film continues to perform with seven weeks of 35 percent drops, guess how much it should gross domestically? Just over $206 million… a little more than Shagged.

Now, I’m not sayin’ nothin’… but it is a head scratcher, ain’t it?

I had a discussion about this with a fellow box office watcher and there was a sense that it was business at usual, pointing out that there was no big opener this weekend, so a little recovery might be in order. But I looked at last year’s box office results for “this” weekend and there were no big openers then either. And only three films in the entire Top Twenty dropped by less than 30 percent. Two were kids films (Dr. Dolittle 2 and Shrek) and the third was The Others, which had added 475 venues to its count. None of the three seemed to be chasing targets.

This year, we have My Big Fat Greek Wedding, which added 47 percent more screens (337) and had its opening weekend in Canada. (The Washington Post’s Sharon Waxman offers perspective of that film here. Signs reported just a 34 percent drop, but I’m comfortable with that as stabilization after a bigger drop coming off of a huge opening number. Kids films Stuart Little 2, Spy Kids 2 and Master of Disguise had among the best holds with Blue Crush’s ad campaign hitting intensity and sensuality in a bid for teen boys.

In any case, when something jumps out at me, I always ask, “why?” The answer can be good. The answer can be bad. I don’t care. Sometimes, I am pleasantly surprised… like when Disney didn’t pull a rabbit out of a hat to get Pearl Harbor over the $200 million mark last year. Sometimes, not. In the meanwhile, I’ll keep the home-menorah burning and keep an eye on the numbers for these films for the next eight weeks.

MORE BOX OFFICE: XXX dropped “just” an estimated 48 percent on its way to a final number just over 50 percent. Look for the film to head to the domestically ski chalet with around $130 million. (Don’t even get me started on what it means when a film has more promotion, a beautifully easy-to-articulate premise and major media buzz around the star and still can’t match the $145 million haul of the star and director’s last film. Let’s just say that the blame lies in the film and not the studio.)

Blue Crush did not deliver a shock wave as many of us secretly (and not so secretly) hoped. In my weekend guesstimates, I let the film leap-frog XXX, even though I had originally placed it a couple of million behind the big-baldy. (I never had it $8 million behind XXX.) Let’s hearken back to a kinder, gentler time, when Bring It On did $17.4 million on “this” weekend and that led to $67 million domestic and there was joy in the land.

I can’t explain Universal’s summer. They had, in my opinion, the best films of any studio this season. About A Boy, Undercover Brother, The Bourne Identity and Blue Crush is, for me, a superior run of quality. With an estimated $15.2 million start, Blue Crush will probably have to fight its way past $50 million. About a Boy was leggier than any other summer movie, doing 4.8 times its opening weekend. The Bourne Identity, which did 4.3 times opening and is still going, is the second leggiest film of the summer. Yet the overall grosses, which have Bourne as the only $100 million-plus film and the only one over $41 million so far, are disappointing.

Meanwhile, Sony has broken the record for a single studio in a year. An impressive feat indeed. (Here’s a wire story.) But at what price?

Look for The THB Summer Wrap-Up later this week.

CRUSH GROOVE: There was an interesting article on the Blue Crush opening in Friday’s Los Angeles Times. It is the tale of producer Brian Grazer’s wish for a July opening for his surf chick epic. It’s kind of hard to tell whether the story generated itself – Eller is a very resourceful reporter – or whether Grazer was looking to make excuses even before opening weekend for a film that was tracking in the high teens. Either way, it’s an interesting look into the process of picking dates.

When I first saw the film, I too, thought that it should have been a July release. But I held my tongue (and fingers). That said, I also agree with Universal’s Marc Shmuger that the film needed a careful build-up. My problem with the August release date was not that Blue Crush wouldn’t have the best possible opening. I’m not sure that there was any slot where it would open better. But I think this is a potentially leggy film and with the school year starting for any kids and a traditionally lame Labor Day box office weekend on the way, it probably won’t have enough room to stretch out. The story is here.

S-WELL-S: For those of you who can’t get enough of that Jeffrey stuff… Wells’ story on Vin Diesel hit Rolling Stone this weekend. You can read it here. Even though Vin didn’t get the cover (and therefore, Jeff didn’t get the Vin-terview), I kind of love the Rolling Stone choice to feature Asia Argento instead of Mr. Clean. The scary part is that it might auger the laddie mag attitude to come. But right now, I just like it as an interesting alternative choice. And, ironically, the brass at Sony is probably pleased with the Argento cover, as the movie isn’t playing as well with women as they’d like, as evidenced by the new print ad strategy of including Ms. Argento just inside of Vin’s over-the-shoulder signature image for the film. Anyway, the story is here.

SPEAKING OF SONY: The studio of big summer explosions has a quiet quality fall on the way, led by Paul Thomas Anderson’s Punch Drunk Love. The film has a very unusual online site to go with its very unusual teaser campaign. Apparently, the full trailer, not yet available online, includes one of the Harry Nilsson songs from Robert Altman’s Popeye, “He Needs Me”… using Shelly Duvall’s soundtrack vocal. Besides being a good fit, it is amusing, in that Anderson’s work is so often compared to Altman’s.

Me? I’m a huge fan of Popeye, stem to stern. It was a psychotic idea (Bob Altman doing Popeye) that Altman turned into a sensational work of living art. It was Robin Williams’ first film performance. It is the irony of Williams’ film career that he started out being held in check by excellent directors like Altman, George Roy Hill and Paul Mazursky before… you know what?… until the maudlin period, I think Williams made great choices and, with few exceptions, gave pretty great performances across the board. I think he’s taken too much heat. I mean, Being Human sucked, but I’d want to work with Bill Forsythe too. Etc, etc, etc.

Altman brought Sweethaven to life in Popeye with a charming love story and its only failure comes from Altman allowing himself to get sucked into a technology play with an octopus that just never worked.

But this has nothing to do with Punch Drunk Love…

GROVER: There are few things I respect in a journalist more than perspective. Business Week’s Ron Grover delivers it in spades. His latest column, on Michael Eisner, is as smart and tough and sane as they get. Read it here.

BURYING THE LEAD: Grover offers perspective, but the New York Times’ Laura Holson offers the meat. She sat down with Stanley Gold, the guy who is turning the heat up on Michael Eisner there days. One wonders why the conversation, which took place on Thursday morning, was held until Sunday. But that’s why they are the New York Times and I’m not, I guess. In any case, Holson gets right down to it… right now, Disney is being dragged down by ABC, first and foremost. The theme parks are a problem, but there is little that Eisner or anyone else can to do make that segment turn around magically. The film division is doing okay. (Remarkably, there was no mention of Winnie The Pooh) But programming a TV network… it seems more and more likely that a hit or two or the lack thereof will be the determining factor of Michael Eisner’s future with Disney.

There are seven new shows on the falls schedule. The John Ritter starrer 8 Simple Rules and the Affleck/Damon hour-long drama/sweepstakes show Push, Nevada are the two shows in which ABC seems to believe most. But the recent history of returning TV superstars has not been pretty and the other show wasn’t one that the network warmed to initially… it may be more of a longshot. Dinotopia is a kids show going head-to-head with Friends. That Was Then and Life With Bonnie stink of quality… the kind of quality that gets cancelled after one acclaimed season. Less Than Perfect looks iffy, but the behind-the-scenes doc on a show that stars Andy Dick and Eric Roberts would be a hit… the rehab episodes alone! MDs has perhaps the best underappreciated cast of the new season with William Fichtner, Robert Joy, Jane Lynch, John Hannah and Aunjanue Ellis… which means either a hit or a six week cancellation.

The most striking thing about ABC’s fall schedule is the dearth of high-visibility holdovers that aren’t on their last legs. I love The Practice, but it’s over the hump (no shark yet). So is NYPD Blue. Drew Carey is the only major comedy coming back for the network. The Bachelor may do okay as The Bachelorette. And they need Alias to find an audience in a big way. That’s the one holdover that they are hoping will go from minor hit to mega-hit this year. The biggest problem for them is that they are going to have to wait until the second half of the season… half way into February sweeps, to get the hoped-for kick from Jennifer Garner’s turn in Daredevil.

I have to admit… this line-up looks like a Michael Eisner death sentence. We shall see. The question for Dinsey remains... who would replace Eisner? Who wants the job? And is there anyone who is actually more qualified than Eisner? Read Ms. Holson’s story right here.

POLI-SCI 101: Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon performed in a show called The Guys at the Edinburgh Fringe Festival last Friday. The show, about a writer and a firefighter writing eulogies for 9/11 victims, has been performed before and will be presented in film form at the Toronto Film Festival on 9/11/02. Matt Drudge linked to all the negative reviews he could over the weekend, but the response was a little more balanced than that. If you are interested, here are six links to explore on your own:

THE BATMAN SAGA: The question of what really happened to Batman vs. Superman was answered, a little, on Saturday by Corona’s Coming Attractions. The story, which seems to be coming from someone with an allegiance to J.J. Abrams, says that it was Abrams’ draft of Superman 5 that was “so good that it bumped the half-assed Superman vs. Batman project right out of the way.” It continues, suggesting that since McG is tied up with Charlie’s Angels 2 that the studio will now try to find a replacement director from a list of five; Fincher, Soderbergh, Mann and Rob Bowman. ROB BOWMAN?!?!?!

I am willing to believe that WB is excited about Abrams script, even if it is reported to be near 200 pages long. But the dog still doesn’t really hunt. For the studio to be giving up a set project with an A-list studio-friendly director attached for a way-too-long screenplay, an entanglement with a director that they want to dump and the hope that they can land one of three hardcore filmmakers or Rob Bowman in time for a start date anytime in the year 2003… no. Something is still really wrong with this picture.

But then again, it may come together. There is still a missing piece in this puzzle. Read Coronoa’s story here.

IN TOMORROW’S COLUMN: Sorry that I’ve run out of space, but tomorrow, I’ll review Mostly Martha and 24 Hour Party People, offer up some insights on another title in the Hot Button Book Club and ask the question, “Whatever happened to Gary Oldman?”

READER OF THE DAY: Here’s a note from a long-time reader who HATED Blue Crush. NOT NYPD writes: “Blue Crush is teen crap. There is no character development. The script is terrible. Boss to Anne Marie as she fires her: "Surf's up, Anne Marie." Are you kidding me? That is just one example of the awful dialogue in this movie. There are countless cheesy and unintentionally funny lines. And could it be any more melodramatic? Too many corny speeches. The football guy is lame. The romance is not necessary. She had two great friends and her sister. Why not stick with them? Really go for girl power? The romance just dragged shit out. The CGI is horrible! Bosworth's face looked like the Stay-Puff Marshmellow Man. Fat and round and hilarious. Plus, the use of stunt doubles is painfully obvious. And we never really see Anne Marie surf well until the end. She hardly ever trains. We are just supposed to take it on good faith that she can surf. Ridiculous. Some good cinematography, and Bosworth is adorable, but that all this movie has to offer. It goes on way too long. It's predictable, full of cliches. I seriously do not understand how this is getting positive reviews. It's not even about surfing. Surfing is the backdrop. It's yet another teen movie. And a bad one. “

On the other hand, EDDIE MUNSTER’S FANGS writes: “Wow--I was deeply impressed with "Blue Crush". Like so many others, I entertained my share of preconceived notions about a movie that advertises skimpily-dressed young ladies at the beach. Yet, the filmmakers respect their protagonists, giving the characters intelligence and a fictional reality that reflects life. Also, I appreciated the film's way of concluding its story. It doesn't actually resolve anything, such as "this character did this" and "this character did that". In fact, while the characters' emotional arcs are over, their "lives" are just beginning. I can't wait for a sequel, because I would love to find out what these characters do a few years later. The possibilities for a sequel are so exciting because a sequel wouldn't have to be just about surfing. In fact, Anne Marie Chadwick (played by Kate Bosworth in a star-making performance) could have nothing to do with surfing, yet her story would be worth watching.”

And THE CRACKER offers: “This comes from somebody who has a completely different vibe of the summer just past and who admittedly has not seen all the films released in the last four months.....

Do you think the reason the general consensus of the past hot season has been so good is because we've had to endure pitiful summer after summer for longer than any moviegoer can remember?

IMHO, at best, it was a season sparsely filled with "semi-watchable" summer-time flicks. Consensus seems to be it was a grand slam. Box-office wise......maybe? Reality....... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

But I guess the real question is.........what do you conceive to be the last 'great' summer season (for summer movies, not necessarily box office) and how does it rank with what you saw the past four months?”

E ME: What do you think? Good summer? Bad summer? Mediocre summer? Did you at least get a freakin’ tan?!?!?!?