It was another weekend at the box office…

It’s funny how questionable estimates rear their heads in the same old places.  There hasn’t been a lot of game playing this summer, as weekend after weekend, there have been pretty clear winners (and losers).  But now we are in the mop-up zone and all bets are off. 

Last Wednesday, New Line put out a press release on PR Newswire that Goldmember would outperform The Spy Who Shagged Me, despite being $23 million away from that target.  Even after a second straight weekend of the film reporting a drop of less than 36 percent after falling 57 percent and 58 percent in its second and third weekends… despite losing 10 percent of its screens, again… they still have $12 million to go. But they know they are going to make it.

Thing is… New Line won without reaching $207 million.  But that’s not enough anymore.  They have to “WIN!!!!”  Austin Powers is a major franchise.  But it’s not Back to the Future, which outgrossed all the Powers films seventeen years ago and cost less to produce than either sequel.  (BoxOfficeMojo puts the adjusted gross of Back to the Future at $339 million!)  Yet, New Line feels the need to put itself in the company of the Star Wars series.  Why aren’t nine-figure profits enough anymore?

It’s much easier to understand why Revolution Pictures is saying that XXX isn’t disappointing.  Because it really is.  It has to be.  Opening just $5 million ahead of 2001 underdog The Fast & The Furious assured that reality.  It will make money.  But not enough to crow about.  That’s kind of sad, isn’t it?

As expected, Road to Perdition’s estimated drop this weekend is back to reasonable, estimating a 26.3 percent drop… still its second best drop to date.  But after last weekend’s 9.6 percent laugher, they can coast to the magic $100 million mark with drops between 30 and 40 percent. 

My point is, we are all working in the land of Mutual Assured Destruction.  It’s is no more impressive to me at this point to be the first to hit $100 million or $200 million or whatever than it is to be the first to have an orgasm.  If you are racing, you are probably leaving someone unsatisfied.  Or your mate just wants to get you off and get it over with.  Whichever it is, only an extreme egotist would think of it as an attractive feature… an egotist or a film studio in 2002.  

The problem is, it’s hard to argue with these mega-openings and it’s hard to argue that some of the movies that do well with them would actually have legs were they to figure out another strategy.  And if studios collectively started to create opportunities for films with smaller openings to get leggier again, they would, in some ways, be admitting that other films they are releasing are dogs by how they are treated.  The media is already looking at big films that way.  Can you imagine if it were given a structure?

Warner Bros. has an interesting thing going this summer.  Scooby Doo grossed $151 million.  Their two next biggest films were successful niche products:  Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood and Insomnia.  Both films were in the 60s.   Scooby was seen as a snatch-and-grab film and the others were seen as audience-pleasers.  But the films performed with shocking similarity.  Scooby scored 91 percent of its gross by the end of Weekend Four.  Ya-Ya and Insomnia were both at 91 percent before the end of their fifth weekends. 

For those who are curious, it took Spider-Man into Saturday of Weekend Six to hit 90 percent of domestic gross.  And it took Clones until the end of Weekend Five to get there.  But The Phantom Menace took until the Tuesday after Weekend Eight to hit 90 percent. 

To go back to Powers, in the same year as Phantom Menace, The Spy Who Shagged Me hit 90 percent of its final gross at the end of its sixth weekend.  Just three years later, assuming that New Line is taking Goldmember to $207 million, it will have taken in 90 percent of its final gross on the Thursday before Weekend Five began. 

In 2005, will we be talking about movies taking in 90 percent of their domestic gross by the end of Weekend Three?  How much more competitive will opening weekends be by then?  How much will studios be throwing into TV advertising to open their smallest films?

And playing Devil’s Advocate, can this phenomenon become the positive answer to the exhibitor’s troubles?  Huge concession sales every weekend from thousands of customers while the other half of their multiplex seats are used for “specialty product,” meaning any film in release longer than 21 days..  And uniquely short runs for single-screen houses.  Are we going back to the days of road shows, where every weekend is an event weekend and indie films are put back in their niche, with 300 or so indie screens across the entire country? 

MORE BOX OFFICE:  Serving Sara, Undisputed and Simone took in an estimated $500,000 more than Weekend Four of Signs.  None of the studios will admit it, but they knew all three films were flea-ridden.  Personally, I think that Undisputed could have opened better, but Miramax wasn’t going to throw good money after bad.  Serving Sara confirms, finally and forever, that neither Matthew Perry or Elizabeth Hurley can open anything other than a sitcom or a fly, respectively.  Perry, as far as films goes, is a born second banana.  And Ms. Hurley is certainly more talented than her only exploited assets, which involve the wait for her own version of the Pam & Tommy Lee video.  And I hear that Mr. Pacino is not done with comedy… but he had better make sure that he works with a sharper screenplay next time out.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding added screens and box office again!  The top looks like $80 million, but who the hell knows?  All we know is that Bob Berney has the hottest hand in distribution in years and the majors should be paying attention.  There is another way!

24 FIGHTS PER SECOND: Welcome to the first daily dose of the embryonic Movie City News. It’s so young that we didn’t figure out how to do our daily chats until the last second, which means that Jeff Wells and I are the only ones fighting today. But that will soon change. (Hopefully tomorrow.) In the meantime, take a look at 24FPS and give us a chance… a new format and a new forum… hopefully, it will be new fun.

RESERVED DOGS:  I got a copy of the Reservoir Dogs DVD – Mr. Pink, thanks – and looked at the special extras as well as watching the movie again, with the commentary.  It was fun.  But it didn’t inspire me to write.  But then, I saw an ad in the New York Times for the DVD and saw extras that I didn’t seem to have… they were on the other disc.  And I’ll tell you, the scenes that they did up at the Sundance Filmmaker’s Lab and the Tribute to Lawrence Tierney and Reservoir Dolls were worth the price of the DVD in and of themselves.

I have always said that pre-release script and test screening reviews were bad news, and seeing Tarantino’s work at the Sundance Institute makes me believe it all the more.  The small changes and variations and improvement in Tarantino’s directing post-lab are all evident (as is Tarantino’s limited acting skill).  I’m glad that I didn’t get to be a part of that process.  I’m glad that the artists involved got to work all of that out for themselves. 

DVD PICK OF THE DAY: Click here to see today's hot item from our new sponsor, Digital Eyes.

SEC & THE CITY:  The reports of Dan Cox’s exit from The New York Post were apparently exaggerated.  He bylined a story on Saturday, looking at the possibility that the SEC could go after AOL’s Steve Case and other AOL/T-W players.  They will probably squirm away, as the accusations don’t seem too severe in comparison to some of the thievery out there.  But look for yourself, right here.

NOT SCORSESE:  The first big career boost to come off of Miramax’s Chicago is for one of the stars who isn’t featured in the trailer, now available here.  John C. Reilly just signed up to star in the musical version of Marty, the Chayefsky story that took Ernest Borgnine from a career as a heavy to a life as a household name.  The wire story is here.

IDOL THOUGHT:  I’m not big on screaming “racism” every time something happens to a high (or low) profile black person.  And I’m not really screaming it now.  But has it occurred to anyone else that the results on American Idol have become unusually unbalanced in the last few weeks?  First, Christina Christian mysteriously gets the boot a week before the demonstrably inferior RJ Helton and this week, the show’s only legitimate competition against Kelly Clarkson, Tamayra Gray, gets the heave ho.  I was always aware that the female-skewing demographics of the show gave heartthrob Justin Guarini a real shot at winning or coming in second ahead of superior talent.  But the loss of Tamayra Gray was as shocking to the judges on the show as it was to me.

The issue fascinates me.  It’s not that anyone is trying to bring black women down.  The vote is affirmative.  You can only vote for someone to stay, not to leave.  But is there a natural bias of caucasian kids to vote for other caucasian people?  (Guarini is mixed-race, but reads far more white than black and has a seemingly Italian name.)  Do black teens have less of an interest in this kind of show?  Do they make 800-calls as readily as Caucasian teens? 

I don’t have good answers here.  But I do know that something is askew.  And it’s now happened two weeks out of the last three.  Kelly Clarkson should have no trouble winning the show.  But if she doesn’t, it will be girls versus boys.  And somehow, that doesn’t concern me nearly as much, if at all.  

HUH?:  Much to my surprise, the group film, 11'09"01, will not premiere at Toronto, but in Venice.  I don’t know.  I guess it’s part of my American imperialist attitude that makes me think that the film should have opened at a festival that was so deeply affected by last year’s events.  Whatever!  (If you didn’t see the Toronto Preview, it’s here.

CORRECTION:  The BMW video/ad starring Gary Oldman and Little Richard is being directed by Tony Scott, not Ridley Scott.

READER OF THE DAY:  SSSSSSSSSSS writes:  “I thought the summer was middle of the road as a whole. I have the interest, but not the time to go back five, ten, or more years and compare this summer with past summers. I'd like to be able to put this summer into context as Glenn Whipp did. Without doing the research, it feels like a middle of the road summer to me.

Here are my favorites of the summer season:

1) "Unfaithful"-One of my top two movies of 2002 thus far, along with "Y Tu Mama Tambien." I was surprised by how much I liked this film. I thought the cinematography was breathtaking, it enhanced the film so much. I could watch it without sound and still enjoy it. The ending seemed very ambiguous to me. I don't know that many people who have seen it, but if anyone has thoughts or opinions I would be very interested.

2) "Road to Perdition"-Very good, not great, but I think the expectations were very high in terms of quality, probably too high.

3) "Bourne Identity"-I thought the fact that it was "on the shelf" for so long was an ominous sign, but this was a good film by an excellent director. I hope they do make a sequel. So refreshing to see a movie with stunts done by real people instead of computer graphics.

Others

"Nine Queens" was very good. I thought "About A Boy" had some laugh out loud moments throughout.

The worst:

1) "Spider-Man"-I know, I know, most people liked it very much. I was bored throughout major stretches. All that computer generated actions looked so artificial to me. There was absolutely no sense of atmosphere, vis-à-vis "Batman." Maybe that is unfair comparison, but that is my barometer for comic books movies.

I'm not forced to sit through bad movies like movie critics, so I don't see many bad films, but I think "Spider-Man" is one of my least favorite movies of the year, along with........"Full Frontal." God, what a terrible film. What did Soderbergh see in this material? I've talked to three or four people who have seen it, and they were even more vitriolic in their comments.

I look forward to less humidity here on the East Coast, but even more so the Fall Movie Season!”

And this from Stolen Moments confirms that there is more to life than movies:  “Overall, it was a very good summer, as there were a number of pretty high quality flicks out there to catch. To be able to say that this many movies were of higher quality (and for me that would include Spider Man, Minority Report, Insomnia, Bourne Identity, About A Boy, Unfaithful, Undercover Brother, Perdition, Signs, Lilo, AP3, and CQ, wow, look at how many that is!) and were released from late spring to mid summer, is a rarity in my opinion. Kudos to the studios for having the guts to put this stuff out in the non Oscar season. Only time will tell if any of them have chances come the big dance next winter. 

As for this weekend, there's only one option for anyone with half a heart, or half a brain for that matter, to do in SoCal. And it doesn't involve going to the cinemas at all. Dave, you simply must go to the Bruce Springsteen concert Saturday night at the Forum.

I had the distinct pleasure of seeing the show last Sunday night at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. It was unforgettable. Astonishing in its power, with a wealth of emotion that overflowed through the crowd during the entire 21/2 hour performance, The Boss displayed a level of songwriting craft, musicianship, and an intensity by his both himself and the fantastic E Street Band to win over even the most jaded folks in the arena.

Yes, my wife and I are big fans. I have seen many Springsteen shows over the years, but this one is truly special. We had floor tickets, which this time around are general admission, and yes, we were in line the majority of the day, in 100+ degree heat, waiting for the chance to get close to the stage. Was it a long day? Yes. Was every minute of that wait worth it? Yes. I would do it again in a heartbeat.

My writing cannot do justice to the performance I saw. The level of intensity that Bruce brought to the songs, both the new, heartwrenching songs from The Rising, and, just as amazingly, to the old war horses he's probably performed hundreds of times before (including Prove It All Night, Badlands, Darkness, Glory Days, etc.), was awe inspiring. And, the icing on the cake was our ridiculous vantage point, directly in front of Bruce, dead center in the front, because it gave you the opportunity to witness first hand just how talented the E Street Band is. The band works like a Swiss watch, and there's something for everybody, be it the power of Bruce's guitar solos, the extremely stylish flourishes to the songs provided by Silvio, er, I mean Miami Steve Van Zandt, and guitar god Nils Lofgren, to the overpowering drive of Max Weinberg's drumming. This is Rock and Roll as Gospel Revival, and it delivers on every level. It seemed the crowd was either pumping their fists into the air or near tears the entire night. 

Unforgettable.”

E ME:  What was the last unforgettable piece of entertainment you experienced?

And there is still time to enter the DVD contest!  (Not much, though.)