THB’S FIRST OSCAR 2002/2003 PREVIEW

I try to wait as long as I can to make my first round of predictions.  There is a reason for this… no one really can make any serious calls until we see the movies and read the temperature of others who have seen the movies.  Toronto is the first major landmark of the fall.  And it wasn’t kind to many previously serious contenders.

Normally, I like to build to my Best Picture guesses.  But I’m going to use the trickle down theory this time and start from the top down.  And remember, these are my predictions, not necessarily my preferences.

BEST PICTURE

There is nothing close to a lock in the Best Picture race at this point.  I count 23 films that seem to have reason to consider a campaign for a nomination.  I’ve only seen ten of them as of this date.

The only film that has already been released that I think has a shot at the top slot is Road to Perdition.  And for all the films that are coming, only five (Catch Me If You Can, Chicago, Gangs of New York, Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers and Solaris) have the size and potential quality to fill the Academy’s attraction to grand movies. 

That means that we will likely see a race between smaller, better movies this year, because it seems likely that only two or three of those bigger films will  make the cut.  That means that at least two, and probably three, smaller films will find their way to Best Picture.  The door is open.

The two major competitors, DreamWorks and Miramax will both have divided focus up until late December.  Road to Perdition will be a focus for DreamWorks, but Catch Me If You Can could end up being their main horse.  Miramax saw Frida and The Four Feathers go down in flames in Toronto, which opens the door for Chicago… but they also have Gangs of New York as an epic backup and now The Quiet American as a serious dark horse candidate.  Also watching Best Picture chances fade in Toronto were Auto Focus, 8 Mile, The Emperor’s Club, Evelyn, Femme Fetale, Max, Phone Booth, Punch-Drunk Love and White Oleander.

Coming to life as potential contenders in the cleanest metropolis in North America were the aforementioned The Quiet American and Focus Features’ Far From Heaven.  Disney’s Moonlight Mile got enough attention that some think that it now has a real shot.  And Fox Searchlight’s Antwone Fisher has become a serious dark horse, no pun intended.  Additionally, Fox Searchlight unveiled Jim Sheridan’s small-scale immigrant epic, In America, which is not yet scheduled for 2002 but I believe becomes a serious contender if they make the move, given that slots look available.  Searchlight also has Neil Jordan’s The Good Thief, a remake of Bob La Flambeur that has a sure-to-be nominated performance by Nick Nolte if they release the movie in awards season, this year or next.

THE BIG CONTENDERS

Catch Me If You Can – Hanks, Spielberg, DiCaprio… duh!

Chicago – Could be this year’s more accessible Moulin Rouge.

Gangs Of New York – Is it great or is Miramax flinching with good reason?

Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers – Not likely to dominate again… probably next year’s major contender.

Road To Perdition – Well respected.  Perhaps not enough so, particularly with Hanks and DiCaprio in other year-end contenders.

Solaris – Might well just be a commercial movie

THE SMALLER CONTENDERS

About Schmidt – Nicholson gets a nomination.  A tiny movie.  But in a year with openings, it could squeeze in by surprise.

Antwone Fisher – Solid movie.  Great performances.  Too black for Oscar?  Did you really think last year was a breakthrough?

8 Women – A movie with absolutely no shot… unless Academy members fall in love with this homage to the movies they love.  Probably knocked out quickly by critics’ fave Far From Heaven.

Far From Heaven – Will Academy members revel in the memory or recoil in homophobia?  Time will tell.  Guaranteed to pick up lots of critics awards.

In America – If in competition, it will pull Academy heartstrings.  An alternative to both Gangs of New York and Moonlight Mile in one fine film.  Oscar likes Jim Sheridan and Samantha Morton and might be ready to honor Djimon Hounsou. 

Moonlight Mile – Hoffman, Sarandon and a big heart… box office will tell the tale.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding – It probably already won it biggest awards in greenbacks, but stranger things have happened.  This film is right up Oscar’s alley.

The Quiet American – Michael Caine is a lock for Best Actor.  Could the vacuum suck the entire film into being a major player?

REALLY UNKNOWN

Adaptation – Probably too odd for Academy members, but who knows?

Confessions Of A Dangerous Mind – Likely to be more of an Spirit Awards movie, but…

The Dancer Upstairs – Seems far to smart for the Academy.  But until I see it for myself…

Dogville – The new Von Trier is not on the schedule yet, but with Nicole Kidman in the lead, anything is possible.

The Hours – Weighty drama.  Perhaps fated to be written off as a chick flick that garrners acting nods..

The Life Of David Gale – Still not scheduled, but presumed to be a last minute entry.  Spacey’s last shot for a while?

Narc – Good buzz out of Paramount for Joe Carnahan’s first studio film… but still, Narc?

The Pianist – Polanski’s Cannes winner… too jewish for jewish voters?… hard to judge without seeing the movie.

The 25^th Hour – Spike Lee’s first movie with a caucasian lead, Edward Norton on his way to a long term in prison… sounds heavy.

QUALITY FILMS THAT ARE UNLIKELY PLAYERS

About A Boy – Failed at the box office

Bloody Sunday – Too foreign, even in English

The Bourne Identity – Too commercial and Summer

Bowling For Columbine – A longshot.  But a movie that will get a lot of attention.

Changing Lanes – Too early in the year and Commercial

Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood – Commercial and Summer

8 Mile – How many curse words before voters turn off the cassette?

The Fast Runner – Foreign language

Heaven – Too off-beat

Insomnia – Too early, not quite special enough

Max – Real issues for jews, who surprised me in Toronto by being unable to deal with Hitler as anything but a devil, even as a metaphor.

Minority Report – Summer, Commercial, Not Universally Loved Enough

Monsoon Wedding – Too foreign

One Hour Photo – Too dark

Phone Booth – Too commercial

Punch-Drunk Love – Not a grabber.

The Rookie – Too commercial, Quaid trumps himself with Far From Heaven

Spider-Man – Too Commercial

Sweet Home Alabama – Too Commercial

Talk To Her – One of three Foreign Language nominee locks, assuming the country nominates

Unfaithful – Commercial, Mixed reviews

White Oleander – Early fall, Perceived as a women’s movie?

Y Tu Mama Tambien – Too foreign, Too sexy

BEST DIRECTOR

There is no point in guessing here.  Four of the five slots will be attached to the Best Picture nominees.  Potential nominees for a film not nominated for Best Picture are:

Pedro Almodovar – Talk To Her
Stephen Daldry - The Hours
Todd Haynes – Far From Heaven
Curtis Hanson – 8 Mile
Neil Jordan – The Good Thief (if the date moves to 2002)
Spike Lee – The 25^th Hour
Fernando Meirelles – City of God
Mira Nair – Monsoon Wedding
Phillip Noyce – The Quiet American
Alexander Payne – About Schmidt
Lars Von Trier – Dogville

BEST ACTOR

LOCKS

Michael Caine – The Quiet American
Tom Hanks - Catch Me If You Can Or Road To Perdition
Jack Nicholson – About Schmidt
N ick Nolte – The Good Thief (if the date moves to 2002)

SERIOUS POSSIBILITIES

Leonardo Di Caprio - Catch Me If You Can Or Gangs Of New York
Richard Gere – Chicago (if the film is a Best Picture player)
Samuel L. Jackson - Changing Lanes
Derek Luke - Antwone Fisher

REALLY UNKNOWN

Javier Bardem – The Dancer Upstairs
Nicolas Cage – Adaptation
Edward Norton – The 25^th Hour
Jason Patric – Narc
Kevin Spacey - The Life Of David Gale

DARK HORSES

Ben Affleck - Changing Lanes
Adrian Brody - The Pianist
Robert De Niro - City By The Sea
Kirk Douglas – A Few Good Years
Jake Gyllenhaal - Moonlight Mile
Al Pacino - Insomnia
Robin Williams - One Hour Photo

 

BEST ACTRESS

LOCKS
Julianne Moore - Far From Heaven

SERIOUS POSSIBILITIES
Salma Hayek - Frida
Diane Lane – Unfaithful
Samantha Morton – In America (if released 2002)
Meryl Streep - The Hours
Catherine Zeta-Jones or Renée Zellweger - Chicago

REALLY UNKNOWN
Nicole Kidman – Dogville
Kate Winslet - The Life Of David Gale

DARK HORSES
Jennifer Aniston - The Good Girl
Catherine Deneuve - 8 Women
Emily Watson - Punch-Drunk Love
Reese Witherspoon – Sweet Home Alabama

SUPPORTING ACTOR

LOCKS
None

SERIOUS POSSIBILITIES
Daniel Day-Lewis - Gangs Of New York
Ed Harris - The Hours
Djimon Hounsou – In America (if released)
Alfred Molina - Frida
Paul Newman - Road To Perdition
John C. Reilly - Chicago
Dennis Quaid – Far From Heaven
Jude Law - Road to Perdition

REALLY UNKNOWN
Roberto Benigni - Pinocchio
George Clooney - Confessions Of A Dangerous Mind
Chris Cooper - Adaptation
Ray Liotta – Narc

DARK HORSES
Willem Dafoe - Auto Focus
Ian McKellan - The Lord Of The Rings:  The Two Towers
Sydney Pollack - Changing Lanes
Christopher Walken - Catch Me If You Can

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

LOCKS
Kathy Bates - About Schmidt
Susan Sarandon - Moonlight Mile

SERIOUS POSSIBILITIES
Ellen Burstyn - Divine Secrets Of The Ya-Ya Sisterhood
Cameron Diaz - Gangs Of New York
Nicole Kidman - The Hours
Julianne Moore - The Hours
Bebe Neuwirth - Tadpole
Michelle Pfeiffer - White Oleander

REALLY UNKNOWN
Laura Linney – The Life of David Gale

DARK HORSES
Kim Basinger - 8 Mile
Emma Bolger – In America (if released)
Hope Davis – About Schmidt
Queen Latifah - Chicago
Samantha Morton - Minority Report

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

LOCKS
Alexander Payne And Jim Taylor - About Schmidt
David Self - Road To Perdition

SERIOUS POSSIBILITIES

Jay Cocks, Steven Zaillian & Kenneth Lonergan - Gangs Of New York
Bill Condon - Chicago (if a serious Best Picture player)
Christopher Hampton & Robert Shenkkan – The Quiet American
David Hare - The Hours
Peter Hedges, Chris Weitz & Paul Weitz - About A Boy
Neil Jordan – The Good Thief (if the movie moves to 2002)
Charlie Kaufman - Adaptation
Jeff Nathanson - Catch Me If You Can
Antwone Fisher - Antwone Fisher

REALLY UNKNOWN
Charles Randolph - The Life Of David Gale
David Benioff - The 25^th Hour

DARK HORSES
Phillipa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Stephen Sinclair & Frances Walsh - Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Charlie Kaufman - Confessions Of A Dangerous Mind
Tony Gilroy & William Blake Herron - The Bourne Identity
Hillary Seitz - Insomnia

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

LOCKS
Todd Haynes - Far From Heaven

SERIOUS POSSIBILITIES
Paul Thomas Anderson - Punch-Drunk Love
Larry Cohen - Phone Booth
Brad Silberling - Moonlight Mile
Jim Sheridan, Kirsten Sheridan & Naomi Sheridan – In America (if released)
M. Night Shyamalan - Signs
Chap Taylor, Michael Tolkin And Daniel Pine - Changing Lanes

REALLY UNKNOWN
Joe Carnahan - Narc

DARK HORSES
Carlos Cuaron - Y Tu Mama Tambien
Sabrina Dhawan - Monsoon Wedding
Dylan Kidd – Roger Dodger
David Koepp - Panic Room
Menno Meyjes - Max
Mark Romanek - One Hour Photo
Scott Silver - 8 Mile

BEST ANIMATED FILM

LOCKS
Ice Age
Lilo & Stitch
Spirit:  Stallion Of The Cimarron

SERIOUS POSSIBILITIES
Spirited Away
Stuart Little 2 (if ruled to be 75% Animated)

REALLY UNKNOWN
Adam Sandler’s Eight Crazy Nights

DARK HORSES
Scooby-Doo (if ruled to be 75% Animated)
Treasure Planet
The Wild Thornberrys Movie

That it for now… please feel free to E Me with your comments and questions.  The next preview will probably come towards the end of November, as the December films start appearing in screening rooms here in L.A.  And, of course, I will keep updating as warranted in the column.