October 10, 2002

It’s been 22 days since The First Oscar Preview…

Things have settled down quite a bit since Toronto.  Some early Academy screenings have gone well… or not.  And the themes that studios are setting for their Oscar campaigns are beginning to become more apparent.

Just a handful of mystery movies should unlock the entire season to come: Adaptation, Catch Me If You Can, Gangs of New York, The Hours and Solaris are the true mysteries.  Miramax is quietly screening Chicago for people who can’t keep their mouths shut and it is all raves so far.  We will know that Miramax has started their campaign in earnest when a rave turns up in Roger Friedman’s column.  I suspect that we won’t have to wait too long.

Right now, in my view, CHICAGO is the movie to beat.  Period.  I felt the same thing about A Beautiful Mind at this time last year, again without having seen the film.  There is just something about an Oscar movie that is different.  It has nothing to do with my idea of the Best Movie of The Year or the most profitable or anything else.  It isn’t about whether studios really believe in their films, although a well-funded campaign is critical.   No, there is just something in the air… something Oscar.

And this year, now knowing that Chicago is at least good, I am feeling that Chicago is the odds-on favorite.  It is going to be fun.  It is old fashioned in style, but modern in morality.  Academy voters will get to see actors they like doing things they’ve never done before… singing and dancing.  Don’t be surprised to see Zellweger, Gere and Queen Latifah get nominations. 

And this is Miramax’s movie… make no mistake.  Miramax’s Oscar methodology has been consistent.  Their key movie is the one that opens limited or exclusive on X-Mas and expands with the awards season.  Chicago will battle My Big Fat Greek Wedding, About Schmidt and two of the following - About A Boy, Adaptation, 8 Mile, 8 Women and Punch Drunk Love - in the comedy/musical section of the Golden Globes.  And except for Nicholson winning Best Actor - as he will at every awards ceremony for the next six months - and perhaps Kathy Bates as Best Supporting Actress, Chicago is likely to dominate.

That will secure Chicago’s Oscar slot.  But what about the competition it will face in The Big Show? 

There are no other near locks at this point.  We have seen Road to Perdition and DreamWorks has a big job to do to rev Oscar voters back up after six months, another Tom Hanks film and the dark, deadly combo of Gangs of New York and Narc.  (Note to Miramax: If you are really trying to use the Christmas release of Gangs to hurt DreamWorks, you are better off moving further away – if you still can – and letting Narc be the uppercut after your Scorsese-powered jab.)  I’m not saying that Gangs and Narc are likely Best Picture nominees… both have a lot of violence for Oscar voters to swallow.  But they can hurt Perdition when people start discussing the pictures that are violent but still worth the effort.

The Mysterious Five each has the potential to hit or miss.  Is Adaptation going to be too weird for Academy members?  Is Catch Me if You Can an Oscar movie or just a terrific, old-fashioned cat-n-mouse movie with some Oscar worthy performances?  Is Gangs of New York everything we hope it can be or is it a near miss that turns Oscar voters off with violence?  Is The Hours really one of the great dramas of the last decade or is it just another chick flick?  Is Solaris going to be less boring than Tarkovsky’s version but less showbiz than Ocean’s Eleven… is it really an Oscar movie (see: Black Hawk Down)?   I can’t say until I see them.

Then there are the films that we have seen that require just the right touch in release – and so luck as well - to hit the heights:

ABOUT SCHMIDT is wondrous, but Alexander Payne may simply be too sophisticated for the room.  If so, don’t sweat it… you can sit at Scorsese’s Golden Globes table.

ANTWONE FISHER needs to start screening as soon as possible… people will watch it a second time on tape… it’s that good and that shareable with your family. 

FAR FROM HEAVEN is going to clean up at the critics awards and Julianne Moore will be a prohibitive favorite for Best Actress unless The Hours’ Nicole Kidman and Meryl Streep are undeniable.  But will the gay subtext get in the way of a Best Picture nod?  I’m not saying that it’s right or that it’s fair, but…

IN AMERICA can still get in the game if Fox Searchlight wants it to… nominations for Djimon Housou, Samantha Morton and Best Original Screenplay would be very likely.  And for Best Picture, they can position it as the least cynical drama of the year and fill the “heartstrings” slot that seems to have been abdicated by Moonlight Mile at their Academy screening. 

LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS looks great.  But will Academy voters go for the biggest summer movie of the year two times in a row?  (Yes, I know the release date.  Work with me, okay?)

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING will have already won so much and the film has peaked a little too early.  Still, it could be the surprise 7 nominations movie of the year.

Then there are the Probably Too Much movies:

8 MILE needs its mouth washed out with soap… a movie star movie that worked blue might make it, but Eminem melts in your Academy screening, not on your ballot.

NARC is probably a little too raw for the Academy.  (That’s a good thing.)

THE PIANIST is probably a little too Jewish for the Academy… documentaries are one thing, but we all get a little shy when it comes to the big, big awards.

And the Yeah, But movies:

ABOUT A BOY is terrific, but unless Universal can re-launch the film – which really needs to happen before November 8 – it’s a big step up for a really well-liked early summer release.

CONFESSIONS OF A DANGEROUS MIND has a lot of stars, but it’s probably too silly for Oscar.

THE EMPEROR’S CLUB means well, but it’s hard to find a minion that likes the movie.

MINORITY REPORT is a quality summer movie… but it’s still a summer movie and Spielberg has another film on the way.

MONSOON WEDDING hasn’t got any Greeks in it.

PUNCH DRUNK LOVE is a lovely tone poem, but can you imagine the show producers trying to find a clip?  Then again, PT Anderson could probably make Linda Tripp palatable. 

Beyond Best Picture, I’m not going to do lists again right now… just the handful of locks that seem to be coming into focus:

Best Actress

Nicole Kidman in The Hours
Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven
Renee Zelweger in Chicago

The Serious Dark Horse: Nia Velardos, MBFGW

Best Actor

Michael Caine in The Quiet American
Richard Gere in Chicago
Jack Nicholson in About Schmidt

The Serious Dark Horse: Derek Luke, Antwone Fisher

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates in About Schmidt
Michelle Pfeiffer in White Oleander
Susan Sarandon in Moonlight Mile

The Serious Dark Horse: Queen Latifah, Chicago

Best Supporting Actor

Ray Liotta in Narc
Alfred Molina in Frida

The Serious Dark Horse: Chris Cooper, Adaptation

Best Original Screenplay

Larry Cohen for Phone Booth
Chap Taylor and Michael Tolkin for Changing Lanes

The Serious Dark Horse: Joe Carnahan, Narc

Best Adapted Screenplay

David Hare for The Hours
Charlie Kaufman for Adaptation
Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor for About Schmidt 

The Serious Dark Horse: Nia Velardos for MBFGW

Best Director

Steven Spielberg for Catch Me If You Can or Minority Report

Serious Candidates To Be Nominated Even If Their Picture Is Not: PT Anderson, Spike Jonze, Alexander Payne, Julie Taymor

Most Likely To Be Overlooked Even If His Picture Isn’t:  Rob Marshall, Joel Zwick

 Look for the next Oscar Preview column on November 1.

E ME:  Where do you see things at this point?