October 29, 2002

2003 OSCAR PREVIEW III

The race heats up…

Miramax started their Chicago Oscar push yesterday, dropping the bomb in three NY-based columns – Roger Friedman, Liz Smith and Cindy Adams - on one morning.   Now, I have always thought that ordering three girls at the brothel would have to be considered conspicuous consumption.  But it wasn’t really surprising.  On October 10, I wrote:

“We will know that Miramax has started their campaign in earnest when a rave turns up in Roger Friedman’s column.  I suspect that we won’t have to wait too long.”

And we didn’t.  I was the first to position Chicago as the Oscar movie to beat.  And nothing has happened to change that position.  Not even all this dead weight on the bandwagon. 

It would be nice for Miramax to show the film to someone – me, in particular – who actually knows a little about movies.  It’s not that I don’t respect the journalists at the New York Times… at least, until Rick Lyman or Bernie Weinraub “burble(d) on in a private e-mail” to Liz Smith.  But unless Mitchell, Scott or Holden is “burbling,” I don’t have any reason to have faith.  And that won’t happen for a while.

It has become an interesting element of the Oscar race, as of this date, that the New York-centric producers are the ones who are holding out on showing their films.  The only five serious Oscar potential movies that I will not have seen by the end of next week will be Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours, The 25th Hour and Solaris.  I already know that I’ll have a chance to see Solaris the week after next.  And The 25th Hour screens a week later.  That leaves the two Weinstein movies and the Scott Rudin movie.  Mystery dates… who’s gonna be your mystery date?

Having put this together, I am struck by how much tighter some categories are than I might expect… like both Actor slots and Best Adapted Screenplay… and how hard it was to find 10 legitimate candidates for the Golden Globes in some categories… like supporting actress and Original Screenplay.

I am expecting a lot from Adaptation.  (And I can’t wait to see it again.)  But I think it is incumbent upon Columbia, Jonze and Kaufman to come up with a genius campaign to make Academy voters more comfortable with the transition to the third act of this film.  And they have to do it without insulting Oscar voters’ intelligence or ruining the joy of discovery.  Maybe a special Academy-focused trailer with Brian Cox as Robert McKee would be the method.   Or a tape explaining “deus ex machina” in some colorful way.  I don’t know exactly.  But I fear for my beloved.  The film is far more accessible than Being John Malkovich and it has an emotional underpinning that runs from start to finish.  But Columbia has to change any perception that the movie is “too weird” before voters go to the screenings.  Because it is not too weird. 

If the voted today, my predictions would be:

OSCAR BEST PICTURE
Adaptation
Antwone Fisher
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Road To Perdition

GOLDEN GLOBES BEST DRAMA
About Schmidt
Antwone Fisher
Far From Heaven
Road To Perdition
Solaris

GOLDEN GLOBES BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL
About A Boy
Adaptation
Catch Me If You Can
Chicago
My Big Fat Greek Wedding

OSCAR BEST ACTOR
Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Leonardo DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can
Richard Gere, Chicago
Derek Luke, Antwone Fisher
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt 

GOLDEN GLOBE ACTOR DRAMA
Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Tom Hanks, Road To Perdition
Samuel L. Jackson, Changing Lanes
Derek Luke, Antwone Fisher
Edward Norton, The 25th Hour

In The Wings: Adrian Brody in The Pianist, Jason Patric in Narc

GOLDEN GLOBE ACTOR COMEDY/MUSICAL
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Leonardo DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can
Eminem in 8 Mile
Richard Gere, Chicago
Hugh Grant, About A Boy

OSCAR BEST ACTRESS
Salma Hayak, Frida
Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Meryl Streep, The Hours
Renee Zelweger, Chicago 

GOLDEN GLOBE ACTRESS, DRAMA
Salma Hayak, Frida
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Meryl Streep, The Hours

GOLDEN GLOBE ACTRESS, COMEDY/MUSCIAL
Ellen Burstyn, Divine Secrets of The Ya-Ya Sisterhood
Emily Mortimer, Lovely & Amazing
Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Renee Zelweger, Chicago
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago 

OSCAR BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Jude Law, Road To Perdition
Daniel Day Lewis, Gangs of New York
Ray Liotta, Narc
Paul Newman, Road To Perdition

GOLDEN GLOBE SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA
Jude Law, Road To Perdition
Daniel Day Lewis, Gangs of New York
Ray Liotta, Narc
Alfred Molina, Frida
Paul Newman, Road To Perdition

In The Wings: Dennis Quaid in Far From Heaven, Denzel Washington in Antwone Fisher 

GOLDEN GLOBE SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY/MUSICAL
George Clooney, Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Tom Hanks, Catch Me If You Can
John C. Reilly, Chicago
Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can 

OSCAR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Queen Latifah, Chicago
Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander
Susan Sarandon, Moonight Mile
Meryl Streep, Adaptation

GOLDEN GLOBE SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA
Cameron Diaz, Gangs of New York
Julianne Moore, The Hours
Samantha Morton, Minority Report
Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander
Susan Sarandon, Moonight Mile

GOLDEN GLOBE SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY/MUSICAL
Kim Basinger, 8 Mile
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Toni Collette, About A Boy
Queen Latifah, Chicago
Meryl Streep, Adaptation

OSCAR BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
PT Anderson, Punch-Drunk Love
Joe Carnahan, Narc
Todd, Haynes, Far From Heaven
Chap Taylor, Michael Tolkien, Changing Lanes
Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding

GOLDEN GLOBE ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY, DRAMA
Joe Carnahan, Narc
Todd, Haynes, Far From Heaven
M. Night Shyamalan, Signs
Brad Silberling, Moonlight Mile
Chap Taylor, Michael Tolkien, Changing Lanes 

GOLDEN GLOBE ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY, COMEDY/MUSICAL
PT Anderson, Punch-Drunk Love
Dylan Kidd, Roger Dodger
Mike Myers & Michael McCullers, Goldmember
Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Mike White, The Good Girl

OSCAR BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bill Condon, Chicago
Antwone Fisher, Antwone Fisher
Charlie & Donald Kaufman, Adaptation
Jeff Nathanson, Catch Me If You Can
Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor, About Schmidt 

GOLDEN GLOBE ADAPTED SCREENPLAY, DRAMA
Jay Cocks, Kenneth Lonergan and Steven Zallian, Gangs of New York
Antwone Fisher, Antwone Fisher
David Hare, The Hours
Ronald Harwood, The Pianist
David Self, Road To Perdition 

GOLDEN GLOBE ADAPTED SCREENPLAY, COMEDY/MUSICAL
Bill Condon, Chicago
Peter Hedges, Chris Weitz & Paul Weitz - About A Boy
Charlie & Donald Kaufman, Adaptation
Jeff Nathanson, Catch Me If You Can
Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor, About Schmidt 


OSCAR BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven
Spike Jonze, Adaptation
Katia Lund & Fernando Meirelles, City of God
Sam Mendes, Road To Perdition
Denzel Washington, Antwone Fisher

GOLDEN GLOBE DIRECTOR, DRAMA
Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven
Sam Mendes, Road To Perdition
Roman Polanski, The Pianist
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
Denzel Washington, Antwone Fisher

GOLDEN GLOBE DIRECTOR, COMEDY/MUSICAL
PT Anderson, Punch-Drunk Love
Spike Jonze, Adaptation
Rob Marshall, Chicago
Steven Spielberg, Catch Me If You Can
Joel Zwick, My Big Fat Greek Wedding

SCOREBOARD – Top 8 Categories
Chicago – 5 nominations
Adaptation – 5 nominations
Antwone Fisher – 4 nominations
Far From Heaven - 4 nominations
Road To Perdition – 4 nominations
About Schmidt - 3 nominations
Narc – 2 nominations
Catch Me If You Can – 2 nominations

1 Nomination Each
Changing Lanes
City of God
Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood
Frida
The Hours
Moonlight Mile
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Punch-Drunk Love
The Quiet American
Unfaithful
White Oleander

READER OF THE DAY:  THE IG-ROO isn’t rooting for Chicago to sweep:  “Are you shitting me or what? Queen Latifa and Zellweger in a dance movie? Oscar consideration? I looked at the entire cast and frankly if this thing is even nominated I will bash my tv set in with whatever blunt instrument is handy at the time. This movie looks like utter fluff with a Hollywood stamp of approval....which makes me think maybe you’re right.  This piece of crap might actually win...except for the fact that I’m going to threaten disembowelment to every academy member who doesn’t vote for Scorsese for best director.”

E ME:  Not everyone is as subtle and thoughtful as Ig-Roo, but what do you think?

 

 


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