November 26, 2002

OSCAR IV

Pssst!  Wanna see an Oscar movie?

It’s been about four months since the campaigning for Oscar began.  And it’s about four months before we get to see the envelopes opened.  That’s a long, long Oscar season.

As more and more Oscar “experts” chime in, it is amusing to me that every one of them has a different idea of when the business of Oscar campaigning changed.  I’ll add my theory now. 

The entire business of Oscar changed when NBC picked up The Golden Globes Show in 1996.  The Globes were previously considered to have some influence in Oscar voting, much as the major critics groups did.  But it was also a bit of a joke.  But with a cushy berth at a major network that came before Oscar nomination voting closed, suddenly the Globes were the awards that led to Oscar. 

As a result, the Oscar season is split in three distinct sections.  There is the pre-Thanksgiving period, during which the films with potential slowly roll out.  Despite the enormous amount of money spent on Oscar campaigns, this is the period in which the studios actually have the most power.  By the time critics groups start voting, just after Thanksgiving, they are all motivated by a lot of stuff that has nothing to do with the movies. 

Like the National Board of Review, a group that is an absolute joke, but is first, groups want to be seen as influential.  Why is NBR a joke?  Well, it’s kind of like the gang at your local community center decided to give a movie award out and you knew a couple of well-known critics who would front for you.  So, you plop yourself down in from of every other group, a full month before the end of the movie year, and you split your nominations between a whole bunch of movies so that every publicist is happy. 

And in terms of Oscar predicting?  Since 1995, just one film that came in first in their voting went on to win the Academy Award.  In fact, in that same period, only half of the eventual winners ended up in their Top Three.  Last year, A Beautiful Mind wasn’t even in their Top Ten.  I was going to praise the group by saying that every winner has at least been Oscar nominated, but that’s not true.  NBR winners Quills and Gods & Monsters didn’t make the Oscar finals in those years. 

On the flip side, BFCA, a group of which I am a member, has “predicted” the Oscar winner the last three years in a row.

But I digress…

NBR is followed by the L.A. and N.Y. Critics and the more critics groups and then the Golden Globe nominations.  The studios can kiss up to these groups, but there is not a lot of control.  And whether it is fair or not, these groups can promote a film to a high profile or virtually eliminate a film by shutting it out. 

It is an imperfect science.  Last year, the L.A. Critics got behind In The Bedroom and the N.Y. Critics supported Mulholland Drive and both got Golden Globe nominations.  Only In The Bedroom got Oscar nominated.  The year before, Traffic and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon were far from being locks when N.Y. and L.A. spoke up.  Both ended up with Golden Globe and Oscar nods for Best Picture.  Of course, the year before, N.Y hit a wall with Topsy Turvy, which came out of nowhere to be a contender and ended up without love from the Globes or the Oscars.  And, of course, the consensus winner the year before that, Saving Private Ryan, got nominations and a dissing at the Academy Awards by Shakespeare in Love. 

But about the influence… BFCA was the only major critics group on board for A Beautiful Mind or Gladiator.  The other consistent was a win at the Golden Globes and at least one of the guilds – PGA, WGA or DGA. 

 Hmmm… the things you learn while researching a column. 

The Third Wave starts with the announcement of the Golden Globe winners.  In the last nine years, there has not been a single year in which the Oscar’s Best Picture winner had not already taken home one of the two Best Picture Golden Globes.  The last such variation was in 1992, when Unforgiven was beaten by Scent of a Woman at the Globes and went on to win the Oscar.

Some disagree with me, but I still maintain that the Academy’s move into February, starting in 2004, is in no small part an effort to reduce the significance of the Golden Globes.  If the Oscar nominations close after the Globes in 2004 or ever again, I will be shocked.  The Golden Globes push is key to any studio’s Oscar hopes these days and the Academy cannot like that… not at all.

Once those Globe winners are announced, the rushed push for nomination votes takes place.  But history tells us, if you aren’t in the game by then, you aren’t going to pop up.  Once nominations are announced, the game becomes much simpler.  Get your movie and your talent out there, in the face of the voters.  The pile of relevant videos for Academy members to look at is reduced.  Negative campaigning becomes more valuable because the margins are so much thinner.  And a clear message becomes, as in all marketing, an absolute necessity.

 

PAGE TWO:  “The State Of The Gameboard”