December 23, 2002

The Ten Most Intriguing Box Office Stories of 2002

10. Disney’s Sequel Game. When Disney discovered the wonderful cash cow of home video, the rules about what got sold and what got made were very strict.  Disney animation was not in the sequel game. 

That’s all changed in the last couple of years.

While the home video/DVD business for Disney classics wavered, the need to fill the pipeline continued.  So Disney animation has gone through a renaissance of sequels.  Made at a price, these films are designed to turn a significant profit in video sales alone. 

But then the studio figured out that video buyers were far more interested in films that had theatrical releases and, for just a few extra dollars, these films could be shown in theaters at a significant profit.  This year’s Return to Neverland was good for almost $50 million in domestic box office before going where it was intended to go, the video shelf.

We’re all just waiting for Pinocchio II: Back To Wood.

9. The creation of new channels for independent exhibition.  Bob Berney has been the toast of the indie world for years now. First, scoring with Memento when no one else would touch it and now, this year, designing the IFC release of My Big Fat Greek Wedding before leaving to go back to Newmarket. 

The fact is, the indie world is getting harder and harder to crack.  So companies like Film Movement, Larry Meistrich’s follow-up to The Shooting Gallery, have created a DVD network for selected indie films to move through.  There has also been a much more aggressive effort by some small distribution houses to turn the festival circuit into a profit center.  And the art house segment has been the most profitable part of the Landmark chain of theaters. 

If you aren’t with a studio-connected mini-major, it’s hard to get your film out these days.  And even then…

8. A $51 million start that struggles to get to $115 million domestic.  The film is 8 Mile, and it has a unique place in movie history.  It is, by far, the worst result for a film that opened over $50 million in movie history.  The second worse result, also this year, was for WB’s Scooby Doo, which finished with just under $155 million. 

Interestingly, the films with the next two worst results, Hannibal and X-Men, have both spawned sequels.  While X-Men 2 is expected to expand on the audience for the original, the Hannibal sequel/prequel, Red Dragon, opened to more than $20 million less than Hannibal and ended up with $70 million less in total domestic box office. 

Hollywood is so hungry for marketable iconography that the power to open is enough to get a film greenlit these days.  If there was another Hannibal Lecter book, and someone could get Tony Hopkins to sign, and could still make the film for $50 million or less, you can be sure that it would be in production before you could figure out the hair color of Julianne Moore and Jodie Foster’s love child. 

Of course, Eminem’s ability to open 8 Mile to $51 million assures that he will be offered no less than $10 million for his next film, which is likely to gross less than $75 million.  Curtis Hanson gave Eminem an incredible gift with this film, one that is likely to be achieved again.

7. The Matrix 2 & 3. The reason this is slated so low is that the story that would take it to Number One didn’t happen...  The idea of actually releasing both Matrix: Reloaded and Matrix: Revolutions in the same summer would, indeed, have been revolutionary.  And both fascinating and scary. 

The idea of scheduling a movie with the intention of playing it out in three months or less is something that would have been beyond consideration just a few years ago.  But in the current climate, even Spider-Man, a $400 million smash, played out this last summer before August 1.  The last few weeks in theaters generated less than $500,000 in business and had minimal, if any, effect on the bottom line. 

Imagine the possibility of reinvigorating the box office for the first sequel just before the third film.  The studio could create premium dates for audiences willing to pay extra to see the two films - or even all three films – back to back (to back). 

But even as things stand, with Reloaded arriving on May 15 and Revolutions on November 7, we are witnessing a piece of important box office history.  And, though they haven’t announced it yet, I imagine we are looking at an even shorter video window on Reloaded than we had on Spider-Man, which premiered on Halloween after its May 5th release.  My guess would be that we’ll see an October 1 street date on the DVD.  Either that or Joel Silver & Co will go against the current grain and hold both films for home release in spring 2004.  But I’d bet on October.

6. Ethnic cleansing.   After all the spring discussion about progress on the racial front, with mixed race stars like The Rock in The Scorpion King and Vin Diesel in XXX, neither film performed up to expectations. 

But you have to wonder about the status of films that have black leads.  Only eight films of the fifty-four that grossed over $40 million had central characters who were black.  Two – Changing Lanes and High Crimes – teamed high-profile black actors with white stars.  The two highest grossers were sequels, Men In Black II and Blade II.  Two were kids films in which race played a tiny role, Snow Dogs and Like Mike.  One starred Denzel.  Only one, Barbershop, really qualified as a “Black Film,” though its success was enhanced by finding a wider audience.   One should also keep in mind that the high dollar film was MiB II and Number Two was Blade II, all the way down at $81 million. 

In the forty films that grossed between $20 million and $40 million, eleven were led by black actors.  And the only two films with black box office stars were Martin Lawrence’s concert film and Eddie Murphy’s I Spy. 

Last year, there were four $100 million-plus movies with black actors in key roles (Shrek, Rush Hour II, Planet of the Apes, Dr. Dolittle II), and another six that grossed between $50 million and $100 million (Training Day, Along Came A Spider, Scary Movie 2, Down To Earth, Ali, Exit Wounds). 

Perhaps it’s all just cyclical.  Perhaps Eddie Murphy just had better taste last year.  But the list of last year’s films seems to be a step better than this year’s line-up.

5. The movement towards front-loading box office continues.  There were 77 openings this year of over $10 million.  Last year, there were 74.  The year before, there were 66.  And the year before, 56. 

4. Disney’s Animation Disaster. As disappointing as The Wild Thornberry’s $6.1 million estimated opening this weekend is, it’s not nearly as shocking at Treasure Planet’s $12.1 million start, and the very real possibility that this film won’t total as much as $35 million domestic.  That gross won’t cover the ad buys, much less the $140 million production cost on this film.

With DreamWorks’ Shrek standing as the top animated grosser of last year and Fox’s Ice Age taking the honor this year, one has to ponder whether the most venerable of box office locks is no longer a sure thing. 

Just a couple of years ago, the discussion was about whether a film like Dinosaur, which grossed $137 million domestic, could cover the growing costs of animation.  But a first-run Disney animated film grossing less than $50 million? … a whole new world. 

3. The Expensive Sequel.  Columbia Pictures had the most successful box office summer in movie history.  They also had the most expensive summer in movie history.  Not only are studios hungry for highly-marketable projects, but they are more willing to overspend than ever. 

There were no less than seven sequels this year that cost over $100 million to produce.  With the exception of Stuart Little 2, each film will gross more than $140 million. 

But what of the expensive sequels to come, like Scooby Doo 2 and XXX2.  Can they be profit machines? 

The three high-profit sequels that were not highly expensive this year were Dimension’s Spy Kids 2, New Line’s Blade 2 and the long delayed Disney film, The Santa Claus 2.

2. My Big Fat Greek Wedding.  It’s as simple as it seems.  A small film with no box office stars becomes a $200 million-plus movie because of perseverance and a whole lot of hard work and luck. 

The question now is, is this a good thing or a bad thing?  Are mediocre filmmakers all going to assume that their MBFGW is on the way?  Will artists who work on a small scale be seduced to make lightweight comedies?

The truth is, MBFGY is a true fluke.  They gave us what the audience wanted, whether we liked it or not. 

The film didn’t end up on more than 1000 screens until after its 17^th weekend.  In the 30 weeks since, the box office has more than quadrupled. 

1. Spider-Man Opens To $115 Million.  Is this the greatest moment in the history of exhibition or a nightmare that will lead to the end of theatrical projection all too soon?  Four weekends - $334 million.  Who wants to platform after that!?!?

But the greater question is still whether the art itself is changed by the singular interest in turning dollars and turning them quickly.  In the case of Spider-Man, the general consensus seems to be that the quality was not affected by the effort for dollars, while Men in Black II and Austin Powers in Goldmember were both roundly criticized for excessive product placements. 

If 80 percent of a film’s box office potential can be wrung out in less than four weeks, and if 80 percent of the DVD/video market plays out in less than a month and can still go wild less than six months after release, what is the long term value of these films?  How much long-term ancillary value can there be?  And, from the viewpoint of the financiers, how much does anyone care?  After all, money is money and the quicker the better.

READER OF THE DAY:  “What, in your opinion, are the greatest sequels ever made, or the sequels that surpass the originals. My friends and I have been having a debate over this for a while now, and since I read your site and it always says E ME, I thought what the hell.”

E ME:  Good question.  What are your favorite sequels?  And what were the major box office stories that I missed?