December 30, 2002

It seems like a lifetime since I’ve done a “regular” column…

And so, today I shall… before shuffling off the coil of 2002 with tomorrow’s traditional New Year’s Resolutions column.  Ah, the joy of box office analysis….

The biggest surprise of this box office season is that there really  haven’t been any surprises.  I was saying that Potter would fall back and Rings would step forward back in October.  Catch Me If You Can should be pushing $100 million by the end of next weekend on the way to a $150 million-plus run.   Maid in Manhattan is going to come up a little short of expectations… like every J-Lo film has… but still a success. Likewise, Two Weeks Notice will outperform its expectations… like every Sandra Bullock comedy has.  Die Another Day, as forecasted here in mid-November, is already the biggest ever Bond in North America by about $20 million, and will likely go another $10 - $15 million before it does it’s final day.

There has been a lot of gnawing over the box office results for Gangs of New York.  The fans of the film have been pushing the idea that this is just the beginning of a steady growth pattern for the film.  The film’s detractors have been screaming that the film’s box office performance is disastrous.  Neither, in my opinion, is true.  Starting on 1550 venues in weekend one and going to 2190 the next is not a platform release in any real sense of the word.  This is a wide release and it looks like it will behave like most wide releases.  On the flip side, a domestic gross of $60 million for a Martin Scorsese movie – which is more or less where I see this film headed – is about right.  It’s certainly not Heaven’s Gate.  However, the cost of the movie is where the trouble comes.  If Miramax us really in for the $60 million - $90 million that they are said to be in for with P&A, $40 million in rentals isn’t going to do the job. 

But there is a silver lining for film lovers.  As much as the studio and Mr. Scorsese would like you to believe that the version of this film in theaters is the only version, the financial loss on this film may inspire the studio to pick up the few extra million in profits that would come from a “Director’s Cut” of the film.  Look for a summer or early fall release of Gangs on DVD/video and a heretofore-disabused version to arrive on DVD in spring 2004.  Or does someone think that Miramax is going to leave money on the table?

Perhaps the one major happy surprise of the season is Fox’s Drumline, which not only opened, but held on to its audience for longer than expected.  It’s unlikely to quite catch up with MGM’s crossover hit Barbershop, but then again, it has no names to sell and no major salaries either. 

On the negative side, there are the disappointing Treasure Planet, Solaris, Analyze That, Pinocchio and Star Trek: Nemesis.  All five mark the end of industry trends.  Treasure Planet has sent a shiver through Disney animation that has already assured a change at the top, and an even worse bargaining position in the battle to be Pixar’s distribution arm…a deal that Disney will have to make if they wish to remain the industry leaders in animation.  Solaris puts a limit on what studios will expect from George Clooney at the box office.  (Free unwanted advice to George – find a commercial project that you can topline… no romantic comedy, unless it’s opposite a smiling Julia Roberts… nothing too smart… a Jack Ryan role…  or hook up with M. Night Shyamalan… you are a movie star without a real box office portfolio… find your movie… then make more great stuff.)  Analyze That might be the end of DeNiro as a comedy star for a while.  Meet The Fockers should do well, but after that… use your Tribeca power to make a movie with Francis or Fincher… please!  Pinocchio puts Begnini back into the redubbed Jackie Chan category.  And the Star Trek franchise has finally made the need for new blood evident. 

(I had a funny idea the other day… go back and remake the entire original Star Trek series for TV… don’t change the scripts… just cast with actors who really fit.   Star Trek as sci-fi Shakespeare.  Christian Bale as Kirk.   Ralph Fiennes as Spock.  Paul Giamatti as Bones.  Robert Carlyle as Scotty.  Rosario Dawson as Uhura.  Imagine the stars who would love to play the aliens that they grew up loving on the old series.  Even if it was a $3 million an episode series, it would be a weekly must-see.  Modern effects… classic words… this could be huge!)

The Oscar Chase films are moving quickly out of the gate.  Chicago, About Schmidt, The Hours, The 25^th Hour and Adaptation all had strong weekends on limited screens.  Chicago is the high mark for per-screen.  But its national potential is still a wait and see situation.   Chicago is probably in a better position than Moulin Rouge, since it won’t face summer-type competition.  And even head-to-head, Chicago’s approximate $195,000 in its two top theaters (NYC’s Zigfield and Los Angeles’ Century Plaza) beats Moulin Rouge’s $168,000 in the same two theaters last year.  Of course, Chicago opened over a holiday and Moulin Rouge didn’t. 

In other words… it’s all still just conjecture.

But a look at Chicago’s 77 playdates is interesting.  Outside of New York and L.A., the film is playing best in Houston, Seattle, Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Baltimore and San Francisco.  Miami has three theaters in the top half of the group and Boca Raton has two in its own right.  Also of interest, almost a third of the current playdates are in Canada, although only five of the dates are in the top half of the charts.  Toronto is the city with the most screens of all, with eight playdates between the city and nearby suburbs.

Word has it that Miramax will be adding extra theaters this week in New York City and Los Angeles, both of which currently sport exclusive runs.  (Both cities have runs in the subs.)  Miramax is carrying deadwood at The Grove in L.A. and the Empire 25 in NY with Pinocchio, so the opportunity is there.  We’ll see.

TOP TEN LISTS:  First, about my own Top Ten.  It’s kind of odd.  I got some mail point out that Gangs of New York, Chicago and The Hours were not on the list, wondering why. And, when I think about it, those films certainly should have made my list of what turned out to be the Top 53.  When I approach list-making, my criteria for inclusion in the possibles is the idea that the film could rate in the Top Ten.  And each year, it seems that some higher profile titles are already on the outs.  It’s kind of like when I occasionally will do a review and leave out much mention of the lead for all my enthusiasm about the supporting actors and director.  A quirk.  My quirk.  So for the record, if I were going to a list of 30, straight up, all three films would have to be in there. 

There is a big chart of Top Ten lists at moviecitynews.com and it is kind of fascinating.  I’m not a huge fan of quantifying criticism, but when you have as wide a sampling as this one and when the critics are doing their own quantifying, trends become more interesting.  Perhaps the most interesting is that two of the top three films are Y tu Mama Tambien and Habla con Ella (Talk To Her), neither of which is seen as a serious contender for Best Picture nominations.  Likewise, the film in between them is Far from Heaven, which is clearly a critics’ darling, but is not seen as a sure bet with Academy members. 

Anyway, it’s an interesting list… you can find it here.

REVISITING MOVIES:  Miramax was kind enough to send a DVD of Gangs of New York over the weekend.  And sure enough, I popped it into my DVD player immediately and took yet another look.  And I’ll tell you what… there is great stuff in there, interrupted by some really terrible distractions. 

I watched Scorsese’s Casino the other night on cable and thought about the argument that some had made that Scorsese was a big voice over guy and that I shouldn’t complain about the voice over in Gangs.  But it was soooo different.  The voice over in Casino and GoodFellas is very personal… it’s about what the character is thinking and feeling. The voice over in Gangs is explanatory in a very disconnected way.  It tries to be personal, but it’s not.  “Every year the reformers came, every year the Points got worse… as though it liked being dirty.” It’s a long way from that to the stories about the gangsters on the corner in GoodFellas or explaining how the guy in Kansas City messed everyone else up in Casino.  In fact, the kind of voice over that was in Scorsese’s earlier films is dialogue here, given to Bill or other characters. There is a lot of expositional dialogue that just doesn’t bother me. 

I also got a soundtrack from Chicago and was able to listen to the songs, separate from the images.  Also interesting.  I was amazed to realize that Catherine Zeta-Jones doesn’t have much more vocal range than Renee Zellweger.  But she really knows how to sing.  All of the other singers, including Queen Latifah, who seemed oddly restrained in her performance, seemed to be working too hard.  Over the weekend, I happened to hear Joel Grey’s rendition of “Mr. Cellophane”.  Much calmer.  Much better.  Grey simply knows how to use the instrument so well that he isn’t worried about getting by… he’s focused on finding a voice within his phrasing.  Only Jones does that on this soundtrack.  That said, I really do love the show and the songs and found myself humming them all weekend long. 

READER OF THE DAY:  The new ROTD page is here.

E ME:  How’s your holiday moviegoing going?