January 6, 2003

It’s time to go back to work…

There are two box office stories coming out of these last two holiday weeks… Lord of The Rings and everything else. 

How big is The Two Towers?  Well, it passed Harry Potter’s 8 week total in just three weeks.  The estimated gross at the end of three weekends is a remarkable $55 million ahead of where The Fellowship Of The Ring was after three weekends.  The third weekend gross for this film is only $2.6 million ahead of last year’s.  And from that point last, year, Fellowship generated an additional $108 million.  Add that on to Two Towers’ gross and you are looking at $370 million.  And it could be more. 

Besides Daredevil - and figure one of the expanding Oscar films - the next film that looks like it has $100 million potential is Anger Management on April 11… then X2 on May 2.  That’s a lot of open space for Rings.  Fellowship continued to generate more than $100,000 a week until the end of July.  Also, unlike Spider-Man’s six-month DVD/Video window, the film’s potential repeat audience knows that they won’t see a DVD for this film until August or September.  And given the success of the second DVD, I wouldn’t be shocked to see New Line make an aggressive theatrical effort with an extended version of Two Towers next October.

And the rest…

Gangs of New York is doing good business… by sane standards.  However, the film now seems to be facing a traditional drop the rest of the way.  The film has made $47.3 million so far, by this weekend’s estimates.  Figuring reasonable drops, the movie looks like it will top out at about $65 million.  That would make it Scorsese’s second highest career grosser, behind Cape Fear’s $79 million.  There’s nothing wrong with that… except that it still leaves Miramax no less than $35 million in the red on the film, looking to ancillary markets other than international theatrical release, which they don’t own. 

Looking better for Miramax is Chicago - at half of what Gangs did - which has a real shot at winning Oscars and still has major international to exploit.   The box office question hasn’t really been answered yet.  The early expansion this weekend went well.  But if I had to guess at the film’s future, it should probably be at around $25 million by the time it goes wide on January 24, obviously timed to take advantage of the presumed win at the Golden Globes.  My bet would be that the best they could expect from a 2000+ screen release at that time is about $14 million.  But that won’t probably bother Mr. Weinstein.  The best weekend that Shakespeare in Love, the last Miramax Oscar prospect to gross $100 million, had was $9 million. 

The other limited releases with Oscar hopes, including Antwone Fisher, Adaptation, The Pianist, Far From Heaven and The Hours, are all really too small to analyze yet.  There are people out there with attitudes about different films that are manifesting themselves in some silly, premature opinions. 

As of “this” weekend last year, the five eventual Oscar nominees had grossed:

A Beautiful Mind – $38 million
Gosford Park - $2 million
In The Bedroom - $4 million
Lord of The Rings - $205 million
Moulin Rouge - $57 million

You want analogous connections?  There are none, really.  Rings is Rings.  Moulin Rouge was a summer release with no comparable box office story, even if you support Road To Perdition as an Oscar hopeful.  A Beautiful Mind had a $16 million weekend, which none of this year’s contenders -  unless you are pushing for Catch – has been close to matching.  That leaves the low grossers, both of which can be analogized to any one of the still-in-limited releases. 

GOODBYE TO A GREAT EYE:  I never knew Conrad Hall… shook his hand a few times… but I knew his work.  There are few cinematographers with a more impressive list of credits than his.  He was one of those rare cinematographers whose name was invoked with iconic ease.  Ed Lachman represents one thing, Storaro another, Gordon Willis another, Christopher Doyle…and so on and so on and so on….

Hall would be forever marked by the shadow of rain rolling down the walls as tears should be rolling down Robert Blake’s face in In Cold Blood.  He didn’t win the Oscar for it, though he was nominated.  It was his third nomination in three years.  His first nomination was for the next to last Oscar given for black-and-white cinematography, for 1965’s Morituri. His second was for 1966’s The Professionals.  But the nominations weren’t as impressive as the list of films in those three years – Morituri, the infamous Incubus, Harper, The Professionals, Divorce American Style, Cool Hand Luke and In Cold Blood.  More than two films a year. 

He would finally take home the gold and the girl on Butch Cassidy & The Sundance Kid, winning Oscar and marrying Katherine Ross.  He brought naturalism to Smile for Michael Ritchie and used darkness as a symbol of both glamour and menace in the Manhattan of John Schlesinger’s Marathon Man.  He made Kurt Russell, Mel Gibson, Michelle Pfeiffer and Venice Beach even more beautiful for his buddy, Robert Towne in Tequila Sunrise.  He shot Bruce Robinson’s first and last American made movie, Jennifer 8 and all anybody remembers from that is his work and Uma Thurman’s umas.  He got Steve Zaillian through his first two films as a director, Searching For Bobby Fisher and A Civil Action.  And he won the Academy Award for Sam Mendes with American Beauty… took one home himself for that one, too. 

Not many filmmakers bridged the studio system and today’s corporate owned movie world.  Connie Hall was one that did.  His work was flawless, even the intentionally flawed parts.  His light was almost always a bit more dramatic than life… but never so much so that it called attention to itself.  The old west was never quite that warm… the black of night never quite that dark… the focus never quite so easy…

He will be missed.

CORPORATE CONFLICT:  There were two interesting stories about conflicts between  major entertainment companies that weren’t really conflicting directly.  The first was the story about Disney suing Blockbuster for allegedly coming up short on Disney’s cut of rental revenues for their pictures.  In a macro view of the world, suing Blockbuster is suing Viacom which is suing Paramount.  In an aging analogy, there was Blockbuster’s complaint that Disney subsidiary Miramax was dumping product onto their shelves by way of an overall agreement with Disney. 

Then, care of Movie City News’ Len Klady, the story about Paramount’s withdrawal of their films from Mann screens in the Los Angeles area due to a conflict over Mann’s removal of one Paramount film, the disastrous Star Trek: Nemesis, from one of the few 1000+ seat houses in town.  As it turns out, part of the Mann Theater chain ownership group is - taa daa! – Viacom aka Paramount.  Oy.

READER OF THE DAY:  R&D writes:  “I was reading one of you articles discussing box office and black films.  I myself being african american I am not impressed with films like barbershop, antwone fisher, or any film displaying a form of watered down shucking and jiving.  I long for films like Eve's Bayou, the Color Purple, or even something like Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.  These films were successful, in one form or another, because they connected with the audience on several levels, on top of the fact that the characters were not white.  Even when african americans get behind the camera, they play it safe and deliver atrocities like Soul Food or Two Can Play That Game.  Critics like Roger Ebert giving these extremely mediocre films 3 or more stars comes off to me as him being way too nice.  Bring back the days of black face and when all the characters were tap dancing and singing.  Atleast then I know some of us are not in on the joke.”

And this from HER DEVINENESS:  “Wanted to share with you that Christmas morning my boyfriend gave me the Almost Famous Director's Edition ("Untitled") DVD to let me know that he had bought us our first DVD player! He's hooking it up this weekend and I can't wait to enter the exciting world of DVD. I know "Untitled" is one of your favorites. Any tips on what to watch first or any hidden features?

Also, what would you recommend for my second DVD? It should give you an idea of my taste to know that I always said I wanted "Untitled" to be my first DVD. My taste runs to smart comedies with heart. I love Cameron Crowe movies, '70s and '80s Woody Allen, old musicals, and dramas that respect my intelligence as an audience member - my favorite movies include "The Producers," "Quiz Show," "Say Anything" and "Best in Show."

On another subject, I noticed you wrote that you hadn't seen "Man From Elysian Fields." Rent it when it comes out, I think you'll truly appreciate it. It's a real little gem, small, sweet and rich like a little creme brulee, it gets you caring about the specific situation of its characters and then when it's over you realize it had something almost profound to say about commitment and responsibility, to the people in your life and your creative talent.”

E ME:  Okay… what should she be buying for her collection?  And I don’t know anything about Easter Eggs… the best trick in Untitled is that it is so great…