I’ve got this strange feeling in the pit of my stomach.   I don’t really like it.  It makes me nervous… twitchy.  It’s not quite like betting on a roulette number.  That’s far more iffy.  But it is a sense that I am about to go out on a limb.

I think the Summer of 2003 is going to be the best movie summer in a long, long time. 

I’m not just talking about the sure-bet guaranteed home run hits, like The Matrix Reloaded and The Hulk.  Last year’s summer was record breaking based on two films, Spider-Man and Attack of the Clones.  I expect The Hulk and The Matrix Reloaded to be numbers one and two this summer.  And I don’t expect them to do the $740 million last year’s duo did domestically.  But last year, there were fourteen $100 million movies.  This year, I expect a minimum of sixteen titles to make the $100 million mark, including Anger Management.  And I expect the median average to be higher than last year.

Then there are the titles that are not clear $100 million movies, but have a real shot.  Included in that group are Down With Love, The Italian Job, Dumb & Dumberer, The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen and Exorcist: The Beginning. 

But this is not just about money.  This is about the creeping feeling I have that after years of “It’s going to do a lot of business, but it really sucks,” we are about to enjoy the best of both worlds, at least within the limitations of big commercial product.

I’ve seen The Italian Job and it is a solid commercial hit.  F. Gary Gray has returned to the form that he had back in the days of Set It Off.  Perhaps it is because he isn’t working with moody, demanding talent and a crap script.  The story here is clean and effective.  You’ve seen the pieces before, but they fit together nicely and the film will be a career boost to every actor in it… except for Edward Norton.  Irony of ironies.  They guy who didn’t want to make the movie is the one guy who was really miscast.  He’s too bland for his role.  And the film is not ambitious enough to really call for one of his high-powered performances.  Charlize Theron plays a smart, gorgeous woman for the first time in a while and, seeing her, you wish she’d get back to doing it all the time.  Mos Def is terrific. Jason Strathan is right on target, as is Seth Green.  Wahlberg is good.  The film is not quite as good a thriller as The Bourne Identity, but it may well do the same kind of business, if not more.  My only major objection is a trio of flashbacks that take the audience completely out of the story.  They should be removed and put on the DVD.  They don’t belong.  And we saw the film with a temp track, so I can only pray that the new music is a smart and jazzy and perfect as the temp track made up mostly of music from the original The Italian Job.  But this movie is going to be an audience favorite.

But The Italian Job is not alone.  I expected to hate Malibu’s Most Wanted and did not.  It’s no Oscar winner, but it is enjoyable, stupid fun.  Movies that were supposed to be in trouble, like Pirates of the Caribbean and T3 are getting unusually strong responses within the studios that are releasing them.  Even with the sequels, I just don’t see the letdown of Men in Black II or Goldmember or XXX or Scooby Doo coming. 

In last summer’s crop, I’d say that of the $100 million movies, Lilo & Stitch, Minority Report and The Bourne Identity were really good films.  Spider-Man, Attack of the Clones, The Sum of All Fears and Road to Perdition were good.  But the other seven $100 million films… variations on crap.

Of this year’s group of sixteen films that I expect to make $100 million, I have real concerns about only two or three films and their potential doggy-ositude.   And I really don’t know which ones they will be.

I am not inherently biased against Tomb Raider 2, for instance.  I think that the idea of this franchise could be great fun.  I just thought the original was too procedural and that every character was too much of a caricature.  But Jan DeBont could find a new trick or two that will raise the bar, literally and figuratively. 

I have a stomach ulcer with Michael Bay’s name on it like the rest of the boys.  But he can shoot action.  And the Bad Boys 2 trailer looks like this thing might find its way as the most overjuiced testosterone party of the summer. 

The word on Pirates of the Caribbean was terrible, but take a look at the new trailer.  It looks to me like Gore Verbinski, whose Mouse Hunt I admire a lot, could have found a good place to express his dark style in full regalia.  It is still possible that Johnny Depp, in a movie star role for a change, could come up short and that Geoffrey Rush could be going over the top.  But I am now looking forward to a movie I had dismissed.

If John Singleton can bring the raw energy from underneath Baby Boy to 2 Fast 2 Furious, I think it will be a better movie than the original.  I never really bought the edge in the first film.  Like Michelle Rodriguez, I thought it was pretty much a fashion show, of cars and humans.  But with a focus on the black guys instead of an ethnicity-free Hispanic vibe… I’m kind of excited about liking this thing.

As impossible as the idea of McG actually learning how to direct seems to me, the Columbia team must have learned their lesson the last time.  On the other hand, they did hire McG to direct Charlie’s Angels 2.  But Bernie Mac is an upgrade in the sense that he will play with the team instead of against it.  Demi Moore is a brilliant stroke, the 40-year-old actress looking like she could actually turn that into a pun as regards teen boys… no small feat.  And while the first film had to be redesigned in post, they have a better idea of what works and what does not.  My only concern is that the film could be even further over the top.  And while I think some of the action in the first film worked, I thought the wirework segments were amongst the weakest.  Audiences really like these women.  They don’t need to overplay the hand.  We shall see if they do.

SWAT could be junk… but I smell the fun.  Colin Farrell and Sam Jackson and Michelle Rodriguez?  I love that.  And Clark Johnson - Meldrick of Homicide: Life on the Street – has TV credentials that suggest that he will let things rip.  He’s not going to try to make everyone do everything his way.  Tone is always the challenge on these TV-to-film projects.  But I have a good feeling.

That’s six of the fifteen.  But none of these scare me like Planet of the Apes or Spirit or Like Mike.  Perhaps the reality is that the stakes are lower this year than some summers, so I am less afraid and more comfortable with a lot of doubles and triples that come of hustle.  And I am convinced that I will enjoy the other nine likely big winners.

My sense has a lot to do with the attitudes out there.  Paramount is pushing The Italian Job out there now… they believe in it.  Not every critic will embrace it, but the studio can feel that they have something, in spite of stories of production strife.  Columbia knows that Anger Management is going to be big and have found the right tone for pushing Daddy Day Care.  Universal knows what they have in The Hulk, realize the sureness of Jim Carrey in a PG-13 comedy and see greatness in Seabiscuit.  Disney knows Finding Nemo is a lock and seems to be gaining momentum on Pirates.    Warner Bros. realizes the earth shaking power of The Matrix: Reloaded and is now feeling good about T3, which is still putting together effects.  Fox is ready to push the X-Men franchise beyond its first outing.  And even MGM has a big hit expected with Legally Blonde 2: Red, White & Blonde. 

What I guess it comes down to is that I sense that a lot of fun is coming.  More fun than a pink telephone. 

THE SUMMER CASH FLOW RUNDOWN

The Hulk - $280 million – Word is that this really is an Ang Lee movie… with a giant green CG character.

The Matrix Reloaded - $270 million – Only an R Rating will keep this film from $300 million… but it may happen anyway.

T3 - $185 million – Word is that this one is literally wall-to-wall action through the entire film.

Bad Boys 2 - $175 million – You want to doubt Will Smith in an action film?  MiB II, $190 million.

Bruce Almighty - $169 million – Jim Carrey… ha ha ha.

X2 - $163 million – A case where the sequel looks like it will be a step above the original.

Charlie’s Angels 2 - $150 million – The audience wants to love it.

Anger Management - $148 million – It has a few weeks before the summer really starts and this estimate could be low.

Pirates of the Caribbean - $145 million – Could end up being the family action movie of the summer. 

2 Fast 2 Furious - $140 million – Could be a low number if the film is really better than the original.

Daddy Day Care - $133 million – A conservative bet.  Eddie Murphy has yet to miss when making a family comedy.

Legally Blonde 2 - $132 million – Reese has grown.  The box office will too.

Tomb Raider 2 - $127 million – A solid hit… built in audience is shockingly loyal.  Could do a lot better if it’s great fun.

Finding Nemo - $123 million – Will Nemo reap the rewards that Lilo & Stitch so deserved or suffer because of Treasure Planet?

SWAT - $106 million – I just have a feeling.

Seabiscuit - $100.1 million – It will get to $100 million or better or there will be some glue factory threats.

LOOKING TO MOVE UP

Down With Love
The Italian Job
Dumb & Dumberer
The League of Extraordinary ...Gentlemen
Exorcist: The Beginning. 

 

ADDED 4/20: Two potential members of this summer's $100 Million Club were left out of last week's (and it sat there for a full week) column on summer movies. One fell off based on my failure to do proper research. American Pie 2 did $145 million. Wow! I had no idea. It was such a blip on the radar that I underestimated its success grossly. So, it seems unlikely that American Wedding (aka Number Three) will do less than, say, $115 million, no matter how lame it might be. (Let's hope it is not.)

DreamWorks' Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas was more a matter of too much quiet from DreamWorks. Ironically, when I arrived back from Bermuda, there were no less than three packages from the studio touting the film. And they were both clever and impressive. The non-ViewMaster ViewMaster with images from the film was terrific fun. The trailer, which I played for a group of 12 and 13 year olds, both surprised and delighted them. And the faces-behind-the-animation package was beautifully put together and informative.

At the very least, the film deserved a slot in the "Looking To Move Up" group. Any animation title from Disney, DreamWorks or Fox deserves at least that. Unfortunately, the reality in today's summer marketplace is that an animated film that the press has not seen becomes suspect very quickly. It's not fair. But it is true.

This duo would push the list of highly likely $100 million summer films to an astounding seventeen. SEVENTEEN! Amazing.

READER OF THE DAY:  CURLEY PEG writes:  “Allan King certainly deserves the attention your piece calls for. It's great to read that he has another project on the go at his age. On the basis of having seen only "Sherman's March" (1986) I'd pick Ross McElwee as a great documentarian. Perhaps what he is doing is first person cinema, a kind of personal essay on self, family, women, and the American South. A beautiful film.

I would also recommend another Canadian, Alan Zweig whose documentary about obsessive record collectors, "Vinyl" (2000) is a perceptive and funny X-ray of the male psyche. Maybe Zweig is able to get the lonely, articulate men we see and hear to open up so sympathetically  because they mirror his own  soul.”

NOT A HILTON SISTER writes:  “I'd put Lech Kowalski on the list of interesting documentary filmmakers, even though he doesn't really offer innovations in the form, like Erroll Morris (who I also think is great and never gets the success he deserves) or puts on a show like Michael Moore.  He gets interesting films made by focusing on interesting subjects.  If you ever get a chance to see his documentary on the late 70's punk scene, D.O.A., you should, if only for the interview with Sid Vicious and Nancy Spungen that is both funny and pathetic at the same time (and, I think, set the stage for dimwit rock star interviews in movies like Decline of Western Civilization and maybe even Spinal Tap), and his film Stone Soup, about life among a circle of Bowery street denizens during what looks to be one of the coldest New York winters ever filmed

And even though Barbara Kopple may have done some lighter fare in recent years (like that tv show about the Hamptons -- hey, she's got to eat and pay her mortgage like anyone else), her film Harlan County, USA will always get her into the doc hall of fame in my eyes.”

THE FISH LOVER writes:  “As much as I love the films of Nick Broomfield and Michael Moore, they pale in comparison to those of the great Maysles Brothers.  I'm a little surprised you didn't mention them. Gimme Shelter is in my opinion the greatest non-fiction rock n roll film ever, Salesman and Grey Gardens are both amazing looks at some very special people, and don't forget they also created the first serious look at The Beatles in 1964's What's Happening!: The Beatles in the USA. D. A. Pennebaker also deserves recognition for his work with the Maysles on Primary and his seminal Dylan doc, Don't Look Back.”

E ME:  All choices well made.  But in my opinion, both Kopple, Maysles and Pennebaker represent a classicism that in their hands is absolutely brilliant.  But not what I was speaking to yesterday.  McElwee is closer.   More doc discussion to come…

See you back here on Monday the 21^st when I get back from Bermuda.  In the meanwhile, the MovieCityNews.com team will keep kicking stuff out all week long.  Catch the MCN habit.