July 3, 2003

WEEKEND PREVIEW

The traffic jam is here. Now the question is, which of the majors has a Mini?

Last July 4 weekend ended up being only the sixth best weekend of the summer. In 2001, it was the seventh best weekend. But there was a big difference in the top openers. Where last year Men In Black 2 grossed $53m in 3 days and $87m in 5. In 2001, The Truth About Cats & Dogs led the way with $22m/$36m, with Scary Movie close behind with $21m/$34m.

Was there a specific difference? The titles certainly make a difference. But one other factor that seems to stick out is that in 2001, there were five films on 3000+ screens, while there were only four last year. This year, you have a combination of the two years, with five 3000+ venue titles and one major release (T3) leading two smaller releases (Legally Blonde 2/Sinbad).

There is more bad news for Warner Bros, though they surely already knew. The largest July 4 weekend 3-day gross in history is a whole $1.6 million more than 2 Fast 2 Furious’ starting block. Goldmember, Planet of the Apes and X-Men all beat the best July 4 weekend 3-day ever and make Disney’s decision to hold Pirates of the Caribbean look pretty smart.

The good news for T3, LB2 and Sinbader Than I Wanna Be is that The Hulk and The Angels hit the weekend looking soft. In fact, The Hulk looks troubled enough that it may end up in the #6 slot with Finding Nemo passing it by in its sixth weekend. The two top holdovers should bring about $30 million to the 3-day box office.

The top five films in the best weekend of this summer grossed a total of $150 million. The fifth best weekend of the first nine totaled $111 million for the Top Five. Taking $30 million off of the top, that suggests that this weekend’s three newcomers will gross somewhere between $80 million and $120 million. The 5-day totals for the newcomers should be between $135 million and $200 million.

The biggest question will be whether Legally Blonde 2 will be driven into trouble by word of mouth over the five days. I would expect the film to be in the $15 million to $20 million range before Friday. A $25 million Fri-Sun would be expected after that kind of start. But woe is Blonde.

The second biggest question is just how much of a draw Governor Arnie is. There were seven years between the first film and the second. It has been 12 years since then. Remember when $32 million was a big opening?

Have a great weekend. 15 Weeks Of Summer will be late on Thursday at MovieCityNews.com.

WEEKEND GUESSTIMATES (3-day/5-day)

1. Terminator 3 - 3504 venues – off percent - $56.7 million/$80.9 million

2. Legally Blonde 2 - 3350 venues – off percent - $18.6 million/$34.8 million

3. Sinbad - 3086 venues – off percent - $17.3 million/$23 million

4. Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle – 3485 venues – off 57 percent - $16.2 million/$24 million

5. The Hulk – 3295 venues – off 53 percent - $10 million/$15.3 million

6. Finding Nemo – 2902 venues – off 35 percent - $9.1 million/$13.7 million

7. 28 Days Later – 1407 venues – off 28 percent - $7.2 million/$9.8 million

8. 2 Fast 2 Furious – 1775 venues – off 47 percent - $5.2 million/$6.9 million

9. The Italian Job – 1584 venues – off 27 percent - $4 million/$6 million

10. Bruce Almighty – 1925 venues – off 43 percent - $3.3 million/$5.4 million

YESTERDAY: If you missed yesterday's semi-column on Pirates of the Caribbean, it is here.

READER OF THE DAY: MALCOLM IN THE VALLEY writes: “So far, this has been the Summer of the Sequels We Did Not Ask For...

Now frequently, when summer rolls out there are a flurry of Sequels. It's always rather sickening (so Hollywood), and I manage to avoid seeing most of them. But in every case, I at least understood WHY they were made. I knew there was a fan base out there that was clamoring for another installment (do-over) even if I wasn't.

This year? Not so much.

At long last, have we finally seen the coming of the Ego Sequel.

You know, Ego Sequels!! Sequels to films so marginal in terms of their box office take that the only reason they're green lit is so that the original VP of Production can turn to his Bosses and say "Well, it must have been a hit, we made a sequel for it didn't we?" I came to terms with that kind of thinking when I heard that Sony (in its doldrums before Spider Man and the attendant Spider Man lawsuits) was thinking of approving a Godzilla 2. Wait a second I said, that film was a disaster. It was made poorly. The cast was uninspired, and the film just looked and felt wrong. The audience knew it, and abandoned it...and now they're talking sequel?!??

But there is another kind of Ego Sequel. And we've seen its rise too. Star driven Sequels to films that they had long since abandoned, but are coming back to because they need the movie way more than the audience does...

...and at the same time, they know we'll swallow that crap whole.

BAD BOYS II is one of these films. Is there any doubt that we had to wait seven years for a sequel (and some of us couldn't wait for the original to go away fast enough) because Martin Lawrence and Will Smith were too busy being big-shots around town. Buuut, throw in a WILD WILD WEST here and a BLACK KNIGHT there, and suddenly they're ready to play?? Please.

Does anyone remember when Arnold swore up and down that the would never do another TERMINATOR film without James Cameron? Well, that went out the window because now we're stuck with TERMINATOR 3: RISE OF THE MACHINES. I'm sorry. I know the critics have kinda liked this one, but (with all apologies to Jeffrey Wells) Original Material tends to suck when its separated from its creator. I have no doubt the reason why Cameron said no to doing T3 when approached by Arnold was that no matter how good the idea was...he didn't think of it (that an he's still spooked by Titanic's success). In my mind there was only one more Terminator movie. The adult John Connor, the future war and the fight to get the Kyle Reese and the Terminator from T2 back in time, and all the attendant surprises therein. So, instead of having a trilogy, you have loop.

CHARLIE'S ANGELS: FULL THROTTLE: Wait a second, did the first one do all that well? It only grossed like $127 mill after starting fast. As I remember, it was more of a home video phenomenon than anything else. My bet is that the Studio thought they had another Austin Powers on its hands. Well, they don't. I'm hoping that the same thing happens to TOMB RAIDER 2: THE CRADLE OF LIFE. I mean the first one was, to me, the most poorly directed, and edited film that I've seen in a long time (then again, I haven't seen CHARLIE'S ANGELS or its sequel).

But it's not just those two. SPY-KIDS 3D, AMERICAN WEDDING, JEEPERS CREEPERS 2. The films before them either did poorly or tanked altogether. Why are these gasbags being greenlit?!??

At least with LEGALLY BLONDE 2: RED, WHITE AND BLONDE, I know there was an audience for it. Too bad they couldn't serve up a better movie. And I know all of America was waiting for MATRIX RELOADED, and despite some of the revisionist criticism that's going on, I think America liked it (but you're only going to do so well, when the conclusion of a movie is still another four months away...see BACK TO THE FUTURE(S) 2 & 3).

There's a bunch of other sequels of questionable merit: RUGRATS: GO WILD, FREDDY VS. JASON but the less said the better...”

E ME: What film made you want a hot dog real bad? And will you be back?

The Matrix Reloaded. Reloaded.
Read Part One
Read Part Two