July 14, 2003

Arrrrrrrrrrrrr…

While everyone is busy worrying about $50 million openings, which seems to have become the standard for May this year, Pirates of the Caribbean became the 8th $40 million opening-plus of 2003.  There were only 7 in all of last summer… and we still have four weekends and Bad Boys II, Tomb Raider II, American Wedding and S.W.A.T. on the way.  Last year’s record of 11 total could fall before the summer ends, long before Kill Bill, Gothika, Matrix Revolutions, Brother Bear, Elf, Looney Tunes: Back In Action, Barbershop 2, The Cat In The Hat, The Haunted Mansion, Big Fish, Around The World In 80 Days, The Last Samurai, Stuck On You, Lord of the Rings: The Return of The King, The Alamo, Paycheck and Peter Pan arrive… all of which have a shot at being one of “those” movies.  (6 or 7 will probably turn the trick)

While Pirates grossed “only” $69 million or so since opening and “only” $45 million over the weekend, you can expect some legs as long as Ms. Knightly’s on this one.  An oddly encouraging sign this weekend… in two major Los Angeles exhibition regions, Pirates turned up on only one screen.  At the El Capitan, there is only one screen and it supplanted both The Chinese (7 screens) and the Arclight (15 screens), which would offer more of the flexibility that now marks the opening weekend theatrical experience.   At the 15 screen Grove, the film only got one screen because Charlie’s Angels 2, Legally Blonde 2, Terminator 3 and Sinbad are all taking up two slots. 

But here’s the rub… the decision to stick with the 1000-seat El Cap led that venue to the highest gross anywhere in the country, about $140,000 for the three day weekend. One the other hand, the handicapped Grove, normally near the top of the top ten grossing venues for any film on its screens, delivered just about $60,000.  Of course, that’s more than 4 times the overall per screen average.  And that’s at least $35,000 left sitting on the table at the Grove.  However, because it is a movie that will play, it made sense for Disney.  They will likely pick up a screen next weekend as obligations to CA2, LB2 and Sinbad time out, and in that venue, instead of a drop there may well be an increase at the Grove for Pirates in the second weekend.

What struck me over the weekend is that all the trend stories about the summer in the last two weeks have all been skewed to the negative.  When will the trend pieces about the Great Summer of 2003 begin?

HEADLINE: MATRIX RELOADED IS THE 13^TH HIGHEST GROSSER EVER
Subhead: Joins Elite Group Of $700 Million Worldwide Grossers
Sub-Subhead:  Spider-Man was Only The 8^th Highest

HEADLINE: FINDING NEMO WILL JOIN TOP 20 ALL-TIME
Subhead: Should Return Profit Equal To Or Greater Than Spider-Man

HEADLINE:  CARREY’S BACK
Subhead:  Bruce Almighty Likely To Become The Second Highest Grossing Comedy In North American History

HEADLINE:  NICHE X2 BREAKS $200 MILLION BARRIER
Subhead:  36% Increase Over First Installment

HEADLINE:  2FAST 2FURIOUS 2^nd HIGHEST GROSSER FROM A BLACK DIRECTOR
Subhead:  John Singleton Is First Black Director To Pass The $100 Million Mark With Hollywood Fave, The Action Film

HEADLINE:  T3 PASSES $100 MILLION IN 11 DAYS
Subhead: California Saved from The Governator?

HEADLINE:  UNDERDOGS BEAT THE ODDS
Subhead: Daddy Day Care & Italian Job Will Pass $100 Million, 28 Days Later To Pass $50 Million

HEADLINE:  NO REALLY WELL-LIKED MOVIES HAVE UNDERPERFORMED THIS SUMMER
Subhead:  No Stories Of About A Boy Or Insomnia Or Unfaithful Winning Acclaim But Disappointing At The Box Office

Seriously, folks… are any of you really pining for a return to Summer 2002?  

Last summer was the summer of Spider-Man and Star Wars: Episode Two - Attack Of The Clones.  So, Nemo versus Spidey?  Matrix vs. Clones?  Still think last year was “all that?”  Are we really upset that this is not the summer of Signs, Goldmember and Men in Black II?  They are hits #3-5.  Is that trio much more satisfying than Bruce Almighty, X2 and Pirates of The Caribbean? 

You can throw out the entire lot of these commercial films.  But you can’t argue last year over this year without acknowledging the entire range of product. 

As of Sunday, the top ten box office titles of this summer have generated $1.6 billion.  Last summer’s final top ten grossed $2 billion.  Right now, the #10 movie of Summer 2003 is Charlie’s Angels 2: Full Throttle.  Next week, it will be Pirates of the Caribbean.  That title alone may make up as much as $200 million of the difference.  Other new titles should bring this year’s hits even closer.  And there is at least $60 million in box office that will still settle into titles already in the summer’s top ten. 

The point is, the successful box office films of this summer are a lot closer to last summer’s hits than all this trend hopping, black cloud writing would suggest.  And seemingly to our favor as audiences, the wealth is spread more evenly between films. 

Last year had one tier -  from Spider-Man to Men in Black II -  which grossed $190 million domestic and over.  The next highest grosser was Scooby Doo at $153 million.  Seems to me that there hasn’t been a Scooby Doo this year, where everyone seems to agree that it is dreck but it still ranks right up there.  Do you miss XXX or Mr. Deeds?  Were we not disappointed at the box office of Lilo & Stitch and Minority Report?  Was The Sum of All Fears terribly exciting at $119 million?  The Bourne Identity was a great underdog, totaling out at $122 million.

“Adult” films?  You mean like About A Boy, Insomnia, Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood and Unfaithful?  $230 million between them.  And was this summer hard on those films?  Hollywood Homicide, Down With Love and The In-Laws were what we were offered from the studios.  Why?  Because $230 million gross barely returned enough money to the studios to pay for the advertising on those four films last year.  We got what we deserved, I guess.  Seabiscuit is this year’s Road to Perdition… or so Universal hopes… until the end of the year, when they hope it’s Gladiator.  

On the other hand, who wouldn’t take a summer of 28 Days Later and Whale Rider over last year’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding and Possession? 

Want to talk about R ratings?  Last year’s biggest R rated grosser was Road to Perdition.  This year, we will have three titles that will blow that number away, Matrix Reloaded, T3 and Bad Boys II.  Isn’t that a good sign for we adult-minded adults?

Need a Trend Watch?  There are five films that are currently headed for next summer that seem like possible Rs.  Three of which (Troy, Riddick, The Punisher) will probably try for PG-13s  and only two of which seem like R locks (Blade 3 and Alien vs. Predator).  So look for the “R is dead” stories next summer.

There is ugliness to chew on this summer… I know.  Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle, Sinbad and The League will all lose money.  Some movies do suck.  

If you want a real trend piece about this summer, there are two. 1. The number of films that were greenlit at over $100 million.  2. The media obsession with opening weekend, which seems to have increased exponentially this year for some reason.

READER OF THE DAY:  THE HANKSTER writes:  “In Friday’s Hot Button you wrote: "The filmmakers clearly went out of their way to be loyal to the comic book."

Unfortunately, that is not so, and that is what's wrong with the film. The comic book was a lot of fun, and developed all its characters in interesting ways. That is why those of us who are fans of it wanted to see it brought to the screen. I understand that books need to be changed to work as films, but in this case every change that hack writer made to the original material diminished it considerably, and he had no wit of his own to add to the endeavor.

The characters in the comic included an old, tired Alan Quatermain who needed to get back into an active life (as opposed to the opium addiction he had descended to), and a pugnacious Mina Harker who was NOT a vampire (Dracula had been killed and the curse lifted from her, remember) but simply a woman made as hard as a diamond by her society's (and husband's!) utter rejection of her due to the belief that there must have been something improper with her for having been attacked by Dracula. In the comic book, the strong-willed Mina emerged as the leader of the group.

Tom Sawyer and Dorian Gray did not appear in the comic. Nor did the Phantom.

Indeed, the villain in the comic book turns out not to be one villain, but two--the British government (and the League) is being used as a tool by Professor Moriarty in a gang-fight with his rival, Fu Manchu. This was much more interesting than the by-the-numbers hackwork that the movie sported.”

THE SINGING LOBSTER adds:  “About the League, they’ve tried to be too faithful to the comic? Have you read the comic, David? It’s clever, powerful, it’s not action-adventure-oriented at all. For instance, the more accurate casting for Quatermain would have been Peter O`Toole because the character is more like an old beat-up derelict that has nothing but bones on him, fucked-up and a drug-addict. It has to be seen to be  believed. And Mina is pretty much Holly Hunter in The Piano. Not a vampire, small, spunky, acts and dress "up to here" like a stock-up Victorian woman. It’s absolutely wrong that she would assemble this group of freaks but that’s why she does it, that’s what makes it interesting.

It’s the nothing like the "X-Men in the Victorian era" that this film is.”

And NOT THE MOBILIST writes:  “After seeing Swimming Pool as well as Ozon's prior two films with Ludivine Sagnier I have to say, if you want to admire her admittedly nubile frequently naked body go right ahead but to suggest she is a terrific actress that could blow away most of today's young American starlets is utterly ridiculous. Her acting seems to come in two forms, pout and sulk and not much more. Julia Stiles, Anna Paquin etc are much more talented and don't need to be unclothed half the time to show that talent (I think we know what Miss Sagnier and her ilk really garner praise for) Sorry for the mild rant but I'm just tired of this lavish praise hoisted on undeserving actresses by male critics.”

E ME:  I’ll be writing more on Swimming Pool later this week.  Tell me something good about this summer…

 

The Matrix Reloaded. Reloaded.
Read Part One
Read Part Two