July 21, 2003

I had a couple of similar conversations about the perception of box office this summer. The question is, why does a $23 million start for The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen get so much positive attention when other films opening with better numbers are held up as failures?

And here is my answer? Journalists are lazy. Especially on Sunday.

Every film has a story to tell. Maybe it's worth telling. Maybe it is not. Bit each story is unique, just as each film is. We have a tendency to put them all in a big pot – “It’s another one of those noisy movies.” “It’s a chick flick.” “It’s a sequel.” – and avoid the time and energy required to tell the whole story.

The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen opened to $23 million. Daddy Day Care opened to $28 million. Daddy Day Care passed $100 million last weekend. The League is quite unlikely to ever get close. Yet, the $23 million was better than expected. And this weekend’s 57% drop for The League is somehow seen as a positive surprise as well, while last weekend’s 56% drop for T3 was seen as trouble. The difference? At the end of T3’s second weekend, it had banked $110 million. The League’s second weekend, by estimate, take its total to a whopping $42 million.

So what do we make of Bad Boys II’s estimated $47.2 million start? It is just short of matching the combined openings of Enemy of the State and Wild Wild West. Yet, it is not a $50 million, of which we have had six this summer. It is a better 3-day opening than Pirates of the Caribbean, but Pirates opened on a Wednesday and siphoned off a lot of the hottest heat. On the other hand, BB2’s is the fourth best opening for an R rated movie in history. Yet, Will Smith couldn’t grab as big a crowd as first-timer Eminem.

I guess that my point is that the statistics can be played any way you like. And they are. Journalists who allow studio execs to write their stories for them are out there. Killer sharks are out there too. The motives of the writers are rarely discussed. But like any human being, the motives are there, even if journalists are meant to be objective.

The story of The League is that it does now have a shot at $75 million domestic, which is still not enough to assure profits… but it is a lot closer than we expected. Sinbad, a movie generally liked by those who have seen it, is going to have to fight to get to $30 million domestic.

Other events of perception this weekend included The Matrix Reloaded passing $275 million and Finding Nemo passing $300 million. Amazingly, one of these events is perceived as sad and the other celebratory. Go figure. In the middle regions, there are The Italian Job, Legally Blonde 2 and Charlie’s Angeles: Full Throttle are all still flirting with $100 million, but again, perception is quite different for the three films.

Then there is 28 Days Later - this summer’s Little Gold Mine That Could - that is now in descent, just as journalists all over the country are in the process of singing its praises and Peter Rice’s praises with it. I am not against the story. It is deserved. The $40 million that the film is currently aimed at is worth no less than $50 million in profits for the domestic side of the film alone, all ancillaries counted, given that the film already was in profit for Searchlight before it opened here.

Johnny English is also a hard luck story that will be profitable because Rowan Atkinson is so money in Europe. Unfortunately for New Line, the same is not true of Mandy Moore and How To Deal. The estimated $6 million opening for that film suggests a domestic total between $15 million and $20 million… barely enough to cover the conservative P&A expenses for the film. There is, actually, a chance that NL will turn the trick on DVD/Video. It could happen. But it is not a pretty start. That said, remember how extreme the perception of New Line’s last disappointment, The Real Cancun, was. Neither film will bring joy to the company. But somehow, this time I doubt the waiters at Chaya will be making jokes about this title when Bob Shaye shows up for lunch tomorrow.

SPEAKING OF LAZY: Another conversation last week was about how the same story ends up getting written over and over and over again… before utterly disappearing. The story of last week was “The Internet Made 28 Days Later And Really Does Matter.” Of course, I would be a fool to suggest otherwise. Wait… let me get that hat with the bells on it.

Of course the internet matters on some level. But all the web hype in the world wouldn’t have helped 28 Days Later had Searchlight not put the film on the festival circuit and played it like crazy, building great word-of-mouth along the way. More importantly, it is a good film in a web-friendly genre.

This morning, Liz Smith leads with Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World. Why? The movie is four full months away. But look at all the obsessive press attention to Seabiscuit. Just because your movie is not going into distribution right now is no reason not to steal some of the thunder from the alleged “first Oscar movie of the year.” Liz’s closing sentence on that topic: “You can bet the "Master and Commander" producers are looking for Oscar nods in every category.” Indeed.

Of course, Master & Commander is one of those movies that is going to have to prove itself as things progress. The industry buzz on the film is negative, stemming from back in March, when the film was moved out of the summer and re-shoots and re-cuts were going on. If the problems of the film are fixed – and I have no reason to believe that they are not – all will be well. But the proof will be in the pudding and not in the hype. Regardless of how I felt about Chicago last year, it never could have become Best Picture if it was not actually the kind of movie that the Academy adores.

There have been a remarkable number of pieces on two Miramax films, Dirty Pretty Things and Spy Kids 3-D, as both films have made talent – particularly the directors – far more accessible than normal. It also helps that the directors are far more open and willing to play along than most. The result has been a PR bonanza.

What will be “The Story” once Seabiscuit is launched this upcoming weekend? Good question. Look for a pregnant Kate Hudson, a lot of retro looks at the old Freaky Friday and questions about low-budget franchises like Freddy vs. Jason. And then, it is “Are 13-year-old girls really this out of control?” Even Maureen Dowd will want in on that one.

READER OF THE DAY: P-ROD writes: “I have an interest in The Passion and have been following details of the production. My wife is deeply Catholic and so my interest is partly as an outsider and partly semi-informed. What strikes me is how badly Gibson is getting hammered with very little evidence. This is not the first time a controversial film has been attacked before its critics have seen a single frame. But there’s a certain hysterical nature to these attacks that interests me.

There was an item in the New York press this week that the film won’t do well because it’s too violent. There are the charges of anti-Semitism. There was the report that criticized the film for its emphasis on Christ's passion rather than "a broader vision."

The Passion has been controversial for a long time. The issue of "Did the Jews kill Jesus?" (The so-called "blood libel") has been around even longer. But the implied message seems to be that one shouldn’t even touch the subject. I figure that if you’re going to do the crucifixion of Jesus, do it full-out. Show the dirt and the blood and the pain.

And I could never figure out why any Christian would try to pin some sort of crime on the Jews. Lenny Bruce was brilliant at examining this. In one bit, he took the rap: "A lot of people say to me, 'Why did you kill Christ?' I dunno ... it was one of those parties, got out of hand, you know. We killed him because he didn't want to become a doctor, that's why we killed him." He had a Jew leaving a note reading, "I did it. Morty." When the crucifixion is described in the Catholic mass, different parts are read by different people. It is the congregation who reads the part of the crowd calling for the death of Jesus. It is made clear that we are all complicit. But it is also made clear that Jesus knew exactly what was going to happen and embraced that fate. It'll be interesting to see how Gibson captures this.

E ME: Indeed it will. I am looking forward to this picture as much as any in the upcoming year. I don’t know whether I will agree with the facts or the politics or the choice to have or not have sub-titles. But I have a strong sense that I will feel something in that theater. And that is something I value greatly.

What do you value most about the experience of watching movies?

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The Matrix Reloaded. Reloaded.
Read Part One
Read Part Two