September 22, 2003

It may have seemed like a weekend of middling openings, but a little perspective shows that it is really a continuation of the phenomenology of this last summer.

There were three, count `em, three new $10 million-plus openers this weekend. And while Underworld should be pleased with their estimated $22.9 million start, the big dog this month looks to be The Rundown, which should open in the 30s next weekend, with Under The Tuscan Sun and Duplex each threatening to open at more than $10 million. Already in the books, Once Upon A Time In Mexico not only set a new record ($23.4 million) for an opening in the first half of this month – a month which usually hibernates until the third weekend - but for the first time ever there was a second $10 million-plus starter in that second-weekend slot, with Matchstick Men managing $13.1 million.

The previous high number of $10 million-plus openings in any September was four. This year, we are looking at a minimum of six and a maximum of eight.

But the question remains, does Hollywood have to be more careful about what it asks for? There is no doubt that there was money left on the table this summer, as second weekend numbers started to look like third weekend numbers and four weekends all but disappeared. So, how much money is being left on the table this September?

September is a different than summer in many ways. For instance, we are talking about $10 million-plus openings and not $50 million-plus openings. Also, there is not the sense of a set season here, as there is in summer of in the Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year period. Perhaps most importantly here – and the one reason that I have a few Chicken Little reservations about my analysis here – is that the genre spread between the films this month is significant.

There are three major teen-male driven action movies this month, each of which is looking to fill, conceptually, the Rush Hour slot: The Rundown, Once Upon A Time In Mexico and Underworld. Only The Rundown still has a shot at beating Rush Hour’s $33 million start or even Sweet Home Alabama’s September record $35.6 million start. But the other two can be accused of being nothing less than successful.

But even these three films have some real variation in their demographic draws. Underworld is action/horror. Mexico is action/comedy/Hispanic. And The Rundown is a straight buddy action comedy… but even there, some would argue that The Rock’s appeal to “ethnic” audiences is a significant additional element.

Cold Creek Manor is an adult-draw thriller.

Matchstick Men is offering itself as a comic drama in the con man genre.

Under The Tuscan Sun is a classic chick flick, hoping Diane Lane appeals to women over and under 35.

Fighting Temptations is urban comedy with music. Any white people it picks up are gravy.

Secondhand Lions skews young, but also seems to have some value for the over-50 crowd, drawn by its two Oscar-winning male leads.

Duplex is chasing the audience for a broad comedy, drawing with two youth appeal stars.

This summer, the intended audience for X2, The Matrix Reloaded, The Hulk, Terminator 3, Bad Boys II, The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen and Tomb Raider 2 was pretty much the same… all 7 piled up in 12 week’s time. Was it a coincidence that Tomb Raider 2 was the least successful and the last released?

Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle and Legally Blonde 2 skewed a little more female… perhaps too much so for their own good, Blonde clearly suffering from Charlie’s hangover.

But what were the biggest hits of the season? The one major animated film (Finding Nemo), the one family friendly action comedy (Pirates of the Caribbean) and the one out-n-out comedy (Bruce Almighty).

And on the next level, a bit of gimmickry: a sequel with an increased ethic skew (2 Fast 2 Furious), a drama for older audiences (Seabiscuit), the first major 3D film in years (Spy Kids 3D) and two 70s throwbacks (S.W.A.T. and Freaky Friday).

As these films climb all over one another, release date and genre separation grows in significance. Yet, we are entering a month with Kill Bill, Texas Chainsaw Massacre, Scary Movie 3, Gothika and thebre-release in four consecutive weekends. But the parade of Intolerable Cruelty, Mystic River, Runaway Jury, Veronica Guerin and In The Cut is chasing its own group of similar-minded people as well.

So, who wins? Well, four of the action/horror/thrillers will surely open over $10 million, but will they cannibalize one another… particularly Kill Bill and TCM? And how many people are going to have made their bi-monthly trip to the cinema to see The Rundown when Kill Bill arrives on October 10? The second group, of higher end but not as fast opening product, will have a financial winner or two. Their biggest wins will surely be in praise and not money, no?

But the three pictures that distribute to their own drummer, School of Rock (family fun), Out of Time (ethic and other Denzel lovers) and Radio (everyone loves when a amusingly mentally challenged person overcomes the odds) are the ones that have the best chance of breaking out. (I do think that Texas Chainsaw Massacre has a real shot of being the high grosser for the month, since it will surely be the most troubling horror film of recent years, which might make it a standout.)

The odd thing is that all of my concerns are about a machine that may be working too well. With DVD where it is, ten or twenty million dollars left on the table in first-run at theaters just doesn’t matter that much. No one will say it in so many words. But exhibition is so designed in this period.

The most active studio in moving things around this fall is Sony, which has moved Radio to October, pushed The Missing into November after announcing it as a December release and clearing space for Big Fish, Something’s Gotta Give and Mona Lisa Smile to be their clear focus for December. But even these moves leave them with three huge December movies (not to mention the December holdover/expansion of The Missing).

Distribution has never been better… and it has never been harder to find good open space.

SELLING STUFF: Despite the fact that my name is turning up in TV spots for The Rundown, I think I can be unbiased in looking at a Universal initiative that started with The Hulk and the NBA playoffs and is continuing on NFL telecasts with The Rundown.

It’s pretty damned smart and it is amazing that heretofore network unaffiliated Universal is the one that has been the strongest player in the game of associating its product with major sporting events. Geez, it works for cigarettes… why not movies?

I guess Disney couldn’t really do an “if you like rushing, clipping, passing” spot for Under the Tuscan Sun. But Paramount could be doing sports themed pieces for The Fighting Temptations. And Jack Black on The Rules Of Football would be a clear winner.

Anyway, I have found the sports connection to be very clever in promoting male-skewing movies. Fox started the ball rolling, it seems, with an in-stadium promotion for Big Momma’s House at a Lakers games, which expanded out to other stadiums. And ironically, in last night’s ESPN telecast of The Dolphins vs. The Bills, running back Ricky Williams credited the trailer for Master & Commander with inspiring him to take a more aggressive leadership position on the Miami offense. Not quite a spot, but…

RE-RELEASE: I’ve written it before and I’m writing it again… the re-release business should not be taken too lightly. Apparently, Universal Home Video was the mover behind the all-too-brief Scarface re-release. But even if it wouldn’t probably make as much as the Exorcist re-release, a 200-screen release across the country would sure be good for at least $10 million, making the video re-release even more potent. So why isn’t it happening?

Fox seems to be taking the re-release of Alien a bit more seriously. The lesson we seem to be learning at the cinema every week is that people still love going to the movies, even if they love buying DVDs as well. And it shouldn’t be reserved for the Lawrence of Arabias and Gone With The Winds anymore. The same rules as any other theatrical release should apply. Scarface has the elements. Alien has the elements. Cheech & Chong? Conan The Barbarian? Will WB do a Road Warrior re-release a few months before the fourth film arrives… if it does arrive? Flashdance? Top Gun? If Footloose can make it on Broadway, why not in re-release? And isn’t it time to do a run of Indiana Jones films like the re-released Star Wars films?

READER OF THE DAY: ALI NOT G answers the question “DVDs or Movies This Wekeend: “Futurama Season 2, Simpsons Season 3, Family Guy Vol. 2. Does the fact that I paid upwards of $130 Canadian (yeah I know, pocket change to an American) for TV shows that are still airing multiple times in syndication bother me...nope, cause it's time & money better spent than going to the multiplex.”

And HOWLING WOLF writes: “Is it true about the re-release of Scarface?! When? Where? I have a few friends who practically bow to that film. Same film or does it have any "extra " scenes like so many other director's cuts have. If there are, are they legit, or a bogus two minutes of people getting in and out of cars, ordering dessert at dinner, or tipping the cab driver. You know what I mean. Please let me know of the Scarface plan, my friends and I are dying to call each other fucking cockroaches again!”

E ME: What would you like to see re-released? And please, keep it to titles that someone else might actually pay to see. I mean, I’d like to see John Boorman’s Where The Heart Is and Alan Parker’s Shoot The Moon in a theater again, but I don’t think anyone else would go. On the other hand, Parker’s The Commitments… hmmm…