October 21, 2003

And so the screener ban ends…

Or at least it does for the Academy. You know them… the whiners with the real influence.

And now, the reality of the Oscar race will come to the fore, unescorted by the insanity that this ban has rendered.

1995 was the first year that indies, both studio-based and true independents, broke the 20 nomination mark in the Top Eight categories (picture, director, actor, actress, supporting actor, supporting actress, screenplay, adapted screenplay), taking more than 50 percent of the 40 possible nominations. In the eight Academy Awards since, the indies have dipped below The Weinstein Belt three times, with 12 nominations in the 1996 awards, 19 nominations in 1998 and 16 nominations in 1999/2000.

(Note: Just so you know, I am using the year that the Oscars are awarded, which is the year after the release of the films being awarded.)

My guess is that 2004 may well join that group under The Weinstein Belt. Why? Well, let’s start with Weinstein. Miramax realistically has one major movie in play this year. Last year, Miramax alone took 13 of the 40 possible Top Eight nominations. The year before, 10. Overall, in the 15 years with screeners that I have surveyed, Miramax has 103 of the 216 indie nominations, out of a total possible 600. It is always possible that Miramax will be in double figures again this year, but it’s a tough fight.

However, there are years in which Miramax was not the only indie making a huge splash. The last time Miramax had only one picture getting Top Eight nominations was 2000, the year of Chocolat. That film took only 4 Top Eight slots. However, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Traffic both took Best Picture nods and totaled 7 Top Eight nominations between them. Billy Elliot (Universal Focus, 3) and You Can Count On Me (Par Classics, 2) were the other two multiple nominees with 4 more nods going individually to other pictures. They hit The Weinstein Belt directly without a huge Miramax surge. But that was, in my opinion, because both Crouching Tiger and Traffic were very successful films, whatever company released them. Both films had grossed over $60 million when nomination balloting closed.

The highest grossing “quality indie” this year to date is Fox Searchlight’s 28 Days Later with $47 million. But probably not an Oscar film. Kill Bill, Volume One will surpass that figure but, except for Bob Richardson, definitely not an Oscar film. Next, Searchlight’s Bend It Like Beckham with $35 million. (Note: With due respect, I am skipping Spy Kids 3D and Underworld). Lost In Translation with $21 million is the first true hope. With a lot of well-deserved luck, the film will get to $30 million.

And so you have to ask, is there a second indie Best Picture nominee on the horizon this year, assuming the Cold Mountain is there?

Since 1995, only two years have had only one indie Best Picture nominee, 1996 and 2000… two of the three years under The Weinstein Belt. The third, 1998, has Best Picture nods for both The Full Monty and Good Will Hunting. But Searchlight’s lack of acting nominations and Miramax’s failure to do more for Mrs. Brown (poor Billy Connelly… expected to be snubbed again this year for Last Samurai) kept that year under the 20 mark.

So screeners are back for the Academy. Critics groups and others will be pressed to admit that they think they influence the Oscar voting so they deserve screeners too, instead of hiding behind the Oscar’s coattails. LAFCA will have to decide whether they are ever going to have another awards show in the screenerless future for critics.

Speaking of which… Len Klady is the man who came up with the “33% increase in releases” stat that has been so recklessly misused in the fight for critics to have screeners. A look at the release schedule reveals 21 films that would have to be seen if you saw every single movie released in November that might fit. Let’s take Looney Tunes: Back In Action , Gothika, Bad Santa, Cat In The Hat, The Haunted Mansion and Timeline off the LAFCA “must see for awards consideration” list.

Now it’s 15. They are: Brother Bear, The Matrix Revolutions, Love Actually, Elf, Tupac: Resurrection, Shattered Glass, Master & Commander, Monster, The Cooler, The Missing, 21 Grams,. The Barbarian Invasions, In America, The Missing, My Flesh & Blood.

In December, that count is 14. The Last Samurai, Japanese Story, Something’s Gotta Give, Girl With The Pearl Earring, The Statement, Return of the King, Big Fish, Mona Lisa Smile, The Fog of War, Calendar Girls, Peter Pan, The Alamo, The Company and House of Sand & Fog.

I think reasonable people will be willing to take Honey, Love Don’t Cost A Thing, Stuck On You, Cheaper By The Dozen, Paycheck and The Young Black Stallion off of their award expectation list.

Of course, there are many of these films that have been seen already, whether at local screenings or festivals. But let’s say that the last two jammed up months of the year have 29 “must see for consideration” movies. Multiply that over a year. 174 movies a year. If you are a working film critic and you see less than 200 titles a year – which of course, includes very slow release months like January, February and September – you are a slacker in my book.

In other words, in my opinion, LAFCA can do their jobs and have awards. After their weekend outburst, the honorable thing to do would be to take this year off and to return to business next year. But personally, I’d rather they just eat their words, attribute it to wartime frenzy and give out their awards as previously scheduled. Why? Because I want great performances that might otherwise not have champions as powerful to have this one back.

I never believed there was a moral high ground on the screener issue in the first place – outside of the terribly unfair choice to launch a ban after everyone had made their Oscar push plans - and I do not believe there is one now. No one will miss the screeners any more than I. But they are an entitlement, not a right. They are part of the Oscar push, not the life and death of nominations. They are, in the beginning and in the end, free movies and not mother’s milk.

So, what can we expect now? If the indie nomination count comes up short, there will be talk about lost time or a backlash, instead of an examination of the films.

No one will want to look at the role of the IFP Independent Spirit Awards, which I believe in, but which have created a “separate but equal” stratification of awards that can only be overcome by massive Miramaxian efforts, lots of spending or huge box office success.

Julianne Moore and Todd Haynes were the ONLY Independent Spirit Award nominees to get Top Eight Oscar nominations last year. Want to know where Dennis Quaid and Maggie Gyllenhaal’s nominations went? Into the land of “they have their awards.” Tom Wilkinson, Sissy Spacek and the screenplays for In The Bedroom, Ghost World and Monster’s Ball were the only survivors the year before. Think that Halle Berry wanted to get an ISA award? 2001 was a strong year, with Marcia Gay Harden, Ellen Burstyn, Joan Allen, Willem Dafoe, Laura Linney, Javier Bardem, director Ang Lee, the screenplay for You Can Count On Me and best picture Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon going on to Top Eight Oscar nominations. Almost 25%. What do all these nominees have in common? Enormous familiarity with Oscar voters. Not so fortunate, but extremely deserving and well within Oscar’s range (unlike Chuck & Buck) were Mark Ruffalo, Julian Schnabel, Before Night Falls, Zhang Ziyi, Michelle Rodriguez, etc. But they had theirs.

It’s a Catch-22 and I am not for shutting down the Indie Spirit Awards... not at all. It is terribly important to have an awards show for great films that the Oscar voters simply show no interest in celebrating. But there is an IFP camp and there is an Oscar camp. No one wants to admit it, but most often campaigners have to choose whether to go for the Independent Spirit Awards or the Oscar. This year, Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro are probably safe if they get ISA nods for 21 Grams… but I worry for Naomi Watts. I wonder whether Bill Murray, whose performance seems an “undeniable,” but is not terribly well liked in town, could be ISAed out of an Oscar.

Critics will soon be back to talking about how meaningless the Oscars are and that it is just a vote by a bunch of old fogies, as they fill their media outlets with reader-drawing Oscar stories by the dozens.

An Academy tape of some movie will be pirated and a lot of finger wagging will occur and the Academy member will explain how the VHS was stolen by the gardener’s son.

And of course, the main debate will go back to the classic question of whether Academy voters are doing justice to the movies by not going to the theater instead of watching the crummy... VHS cassettes and will start in five… four… three... two…

E ME: Aren’t you happy that I’ll be done writing about the screener ban now?