November 17, 2003

Before I get to some really good films that I saw at the AFI Film Festival this weekend, a word about the weekend’s box office.

Wow.

When I saw Elf in September, I walked out of the theater and told the New Liners that it was a $150 million movie. They looked at me like I was suggesting a sequel to The Real Cancun. It’s not that they didn’t love the movie. They did. Toby Emmerich & Co. were completely proud of their baby. But Will Ferrell has never opened a movie and it was a holiday movie and it was New Line, where $100 million has only happened 10 times before – Se7en, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, 2 Rush Hours, 2 Austin Powers sequels, 2 films launching Jim Carrey’s superdstardom and 2 very powerful Rings.

But when it is over, it is now clear that Elf will be the biggest stand-alone film in the history of New Line (I guess a sequel is possible, but there is none in the works yet) and that it will probably be bigger than any NL first-in-a-series film other than Lord of the Rings. (The current record holder is Rush Hour, with $141 million domestic.)

And if you want to read something really scary, I don’t think that Elf has fully hit its stride yet. The estimated 13% drop this weekend suggests joyous word-of-mouth. And with the fall of Looney Tunes: Back In Action this weekend and many questions about Cat In The Hat, that leaves only Disney’s The Haunted Mansion to stop Elf from dominating the attention of the family audience over Thanksgiving weekend… not exactly Harry Potter. That’s what The Santa Clause 2, also a surprise success, had to face in its third weekend last year. Elf, which I believe has a wider demographic draw (the “men who love large men in yellow tights” demo is HUGE!!!), could well do $20 million next weekend (a 25% drop), followed $28 million over the Thanksgiving 4-day. Throw in another $10 million for weekday box office and Elf could well be at $130 million by the end of Thanksgiving. Even if the thing drops like a stone as it loses screens on the march to Christmas Day, it’s still a $150 million-plus movie.

(Can you hear the folks at DreamWorks, which has Ferrell in his next film, Anchorman, licking their lips?)

Of course, before I pat myself on the back too hard, I sure did think that The Rundown was going to do better, but it never caught hold. And I overestimated the box office upside of Texas Chainsaw Massacre… oh those hard Rs! But I’m feeling good about Elf and the old-fashioned movie theme of the year. It will be fascinating to see whether it holds for an old-fashioned movie like The Last Samurai.

Master & Commander feels like an old fashioned movie, but it is much more than that. It is a movie with more realistic texture than any “golden years” studio would have allowed. And anyone who suggests that because the film was in second place this weekend it was a disappointment must be flogged. The MCN estimated $25.8 million opening is not just good for this film, but downright great, considering the material, which appeals on its face to older people and mostly men. $100 million domestic would be a big win for this movie, in my opinion. And Fox Marketing/Publicity deserves a lot of credit for launching it as well as they did and putting that target (just an early target if the film gets real Oscar traction) in position to be hit.

FESTEN OF THE AFI FEST: This year’s AFI Film Festival is over, but it will leave a mark for a change. There are three “major” film festivals in L.A., the IFP/LA Film Festival, The Hollywood Film Festival and the AFI. This year, the AFI distinguished itself from the other two with some clarity. All three try to mix Hollywood glam and indie and foreign sensibilities. But the answer to why AFI was the best in 2003 was simple… the movies were better.

All three festivals still have the problem of giving you whiplash when trying to figure out the schedule. There is no clear vision. Ironically, the least credentialed, the Hollywood Film Festival, has the clearest proposition… loads of completely unknown filmmakers matched up with high profile Hollywood. The problem is that no one is much motivated to attend the unknown filmmaker part. IFP leans towards the American indie, but the catalog combines the completely unknown with festival circuit films that give you déjà vu. AFI felt like a crapshoot every day. But the nice part was that I didn’t hit a single vein of crap all week. I’m sure there was some out there, but even when the technical work in films would be iffy, there was some value to the time spent.

The biggest single piece of news to come out of the festival is from the closing night film of the festival, Monster, a dramatic piece based on the true-life story of serial killer Aileen Wournos. The news is that the film immediately propels Charlize Theron into being the favorite not only to be nominated for an Academy Award, but a prohibitive favorite to win the Oscar. There simply has not been another role for an actress this year that comes close to the ambition of this one. In my opinion, the only threat to Theron’s chance to take home Baldy is Diane Keaton, who is in a lightweight romp, but one that might generate great love and nostalgia for a great comic actress.

But not really…

Fifteen weeks from now, barring some shock to the system, expect to see Ms. Theron’s acceptance speech. Would it be a less attention-drawing performance if Ms. Theron wasn't 50 pounds heavier than her starlet weight and if she wasn’t wearing subtly oversized teeth and other physical changers? Yeah. But this is the Oscars, folks. That stuff does count. Seeing Theron at the premiere party on Sunday, the spatial reality of her face, at her normal weight, was a stunning contrast to her face as Aileen Wournos. It is truly DeNiroesque. And like DeNiro, it is not just a stunt.

One always hopes that by giving up the store simply based on seeing the movie that it will not discourage the publicists from setting up a sit-down with the talent. But in this case, it is pretty obvious. There are some great performances out there this year. And this is a very dark ride. But unlike Boys Don’t Cry, this was not the perfect role of a lifetime for Theron. Hillary Swank, with due respect, was born for that role. Charlize Tehron had to come to this role. And the physical change was absolutely critical to how we see her character… still a beauty, but a broken, disinterested, sad beauty.

There were a couple strong documentaries that I saw at the festival. There was The Purified, a doc about the four Dogma 95 directors, reflecting on the experience of having done the films. Strong, but not nearly as insightful as The Five Obstructions. Also, there was a personal doc called Same River Twice, which reflects back, 25 years later, on a group of friends who spent a summer on the Colorado River, young and more often than not, naked. Good film.

There were four great films that I saw at the fest. Aileen: Life & Death of a Serial Killer is Nick Broomfield’s documentary sequel to his first Wournos doc, in which he covers the weeks leading to her execution by lethal injection in Florida. Ross McElwee’s Bright Leaves was a surprisingly powerful examination of McElwee’s family history in the tobacco business. And on the feature side were Chinese Odyssey 2002, the Jeffrey Lau Shakespearean chopsocky comedy, and The Green Butchers, a very, very dark Dutch comedy (think Sweeney Todd) about two butchers gone wrong.

On Sunday, I caught two outstanding films. Well, two and change. The “change” one was Double Dare, a documentary about stuntwomen that went on to win the festival’s audience award in the doc category. I’ll be seeing the rest of the film soon and will report further, but what I saw was charming and very interesting. I actually left because I assumed that the piece must have already had distribution, probably on Trio. But later, I found out otherwise. Keep an eye out…

I caught another doc called 60 Spins Around The Sun, directed by comedian Laura Kightlinger and produced, in part, by Jack Black, who was not only part of the support system on the seven year project but the source of completion funding for the film. The film is about yet another comic, Randy Credico.

But Credico is a whole different kettle of fish. He’s not just a political comic, but he is a legitimate, hard-working, raging, serious political activist. He’s not Bill Maher, who seems to think that making jokes about joints and dating girls just this side of legal is making a political statement. Credico has put it all on the line, over and over. The nation’s legal nightmare around non-violent drug offenses is the primary cross he bears.

The only thing that was really missing for me was a tougher series of questions about how Credico fit into the history of stand-up comedy. He is, in many ways, the Dick Gregory of his generation. But the guys who get all the political comedy cred these days are Maher, Dennis Miller and the late Bill Hicks. Ironically, this film increased my respect for Miller, with whose politics I don’t really agree, but who has taken a career-damaging stand to say what he believes is right, much as Credico has. The hypocrisy of a guy like Maher is that much more obvious in that light.

AFI deserves real credit for having this film at the festival. It played at the Silverlake Film Festival just a few months ago and some festivals would be put off by the fact that the film already played locally. Of course, there are very different crowds in play and AFI’s open mind in this regard was a win for their festival participants. Hats off.

I don’t know what to expect from Per Fly’s Arven aka The Inheritance. According to the festival program guide, this film is the second film of a trilogy. I can’t really speak to that. But you know how I occasionally being up the idea of film being appreciated in the same way as theater, wherein remakes or reflective work deserves respect in concept?

The Inheritance is a reconsideration, whether Per Fly admits it or not, of another film trilogy… The Godfather. The reflections are quite specific, though the context is very, very different.

The Inheritance is the story of a man who has escaped his family and is living a very happy life, in love with a woman who does not fit into the traditions of his family. Upon his father’s death, he is drawn in, against his better instincts, out of a sense of familial responsibility. Everything he saw coming… everything he feared… comes to pass, the myopia of his family’s world slowly becoming absolutely inescapable.

In this case, it is the steel business. So there are no murders. But the emotional center of The Godfather is unmistakable. The reflections of those films make one even more impressed with the genius of Coppola and Puzo’s work. It was only partially a film about the mafia. The Godfather was a film about family and responsibility and honor and the lies we tell ourselves.

The Inheritance is not spectacular on the surface. But its soul really hit me hard. How do the choices we make affect our loved ones? How do we choose between one road and another? Why can’t we stop when we know we are headed for disaster?

The biggest difference between this film and The Godfather films is that it is modern day and the women have different kinds of power. Most significantly, the mother character is much more dominant here, which puts her in the foreground in a way that some felt she should have been in The Godfather films. Interestingly, she is not evil, but one tough cookie, speaking the harsh truth about everyone around her, when the political climate allows it.

To me, this film was a great delight. Once I was on the Godfather track in my head, my mind ping-ponged around as the movie played. Here was the moment between Sonny and Connie’s husband… here was a very similar shot to Michael closing the door on his wife… here was Tom Hagan being dumped as consigliore… here was Kay screaming at Michael about becoming “one of them”… and on and on. But more importantly, the emotional impact of these beats was still incredibly strong…. in Dutch or in English.

READER OF THE DAY: SLUGGO writes: “You said THE RUNDOWN was the wrong title for the film. Columbia re releasing it internationally and seem to agree. They have renamed it WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE for international release.

Critics and audiences in Australia have strangely agreed on the Best local films.

Both the Film Critics Circle and the IF Awards (voted by audiences) gave Best Film to JAPANESE STORY, Best Actress to Toni Collette for JAPANESE STORY and also Best Director (Sue Brooks) for JAPANESE STORY. David Wenham was Best Actor for GETTIN SQUARE.

Could there be four Australian actresses nominated for Best Actress - Cate Blanchett, Nicole Kidman, Naomi Watts and Toni Collette? That would create a stir.”

ON THE SCHNEID writes: “Saw the latest anti-piracy commercial this weekend at the movies. If you haven't seen it, the newest features a stuntman comparing downloading a movie to stealing a candy bar. Ever since I saw the initial ad, with the set painter, I thought these were a bad idea. And now I'm absolutely convinced they're detrimental to the very goal they set out to accomplish. I was at ELF at the Grove here in LA, of all places, the commercial starts, then ends, and a group of high school/junior high kids immediately start talking shit at the screen. I can't blame them. The commercials come off as whiny, sentimental, and sappy, with the awfully not subtle score, pushing the idea that downloading movies hurts the "common man."

I'm in the industry, am very much against illegal downloading of music and movies, and still, these things actually make me WANT to download movies. I don't know who the MPAA is aiming for, but the young, middle to upper class people who are going to be doing most of the downloading don't give a shit, and are too media-savvy to be manipulated so blatantly. They will rebel. Hard working, blue collar people don't give a damn either - look, these guys on screen are still working IN the movies, not some factory, pounding metal or cleaning fans. In essence, they're still celebrities.

And please, let's be honest, PA's on movies make more per week than non-union factory workers. Those commercials really piss me off. People all over the country were/are losing jobs, having problems getting hired, and now they have to watch people who work in Hollywood complain about some jokers downloading movies. Not to mention the fact that a family of four just paid AT LEAST $50 to come in to the theater and get some popcorn, and now they have to spend a minute of their day listening to someone tell them how the regular Joe working in the movies is being hurt by downloading. I don't suspect there's much sympathy... “

And this from CD DA MILLE: “The controversial decision by Peter Jackson to cut out the scenes of Christopher Lee in Return of the King has again thrown up the odd world of fandom and the "too close to be objective nature" of some sites. Consider the response. As bone-headed as the idea to cut the scenes appears to be (doesn't anyone think that totally leaving out the bad guy of the 1st two films will perhaps make umm no sense at all, especially for younger viewers?) PJ has gotten off fairly lightly by webmasters and many fans.

Many fans sites have labeled it the tough decisions that occur in editing, but lets apply that same logic if it wasn't PJ who had done it but, say George Lucas, the whipping boy for all fan anger. If the same situation had occurred, if Lucas had informed Lee by email, or not at all at 1st, as has been rumored the outcry would have been huge, those same websites would have spewed out vitriol against Lucas, the cold-hearted bastard who lives cocooned from criticism in his ranch.

But PJ, nope its the hard decisions of editing. Lucas cleans a print of the original trilogy, changes a frame, and its sacrilege, PJ massively reedits his film, and its a labor of love. Lucas holds off on releasing a DVD and its so he can squeeze more money out of people in the future, PJ releases 2 versions of the same film in a few month and its giving fans a choice not greed. Oddly enough fan outrage seems far tougher against PJ for the Lee decision then webmasters are willing to admit.

This is not to say that PJ is a bad person, that the LOTR films are poor (far, far from it), but the cynicism that is taken against every decision Lucas makes as opposed to PJ seems to be a case of sucking up to the right people. Or like Lester Bangs says in Almost Famous "Don't make friends with the rock stars"

E ME: Should people even be discussing what’s going on in Peter Jackson’s editing room before seeing the film? How ‘bout those Ausssettes?!?! And are you ready for “Oscar Winner Charlize Theron?"