January 9, 2004

Sundance starts in a week. Bingham Ray exited United Artists yesterday (Thursday). Coincidence? Doubtful.

Just a few days ago MGM announced, essentially, that it was all but shutting down its production side with the exception of existing franchises, and the story didn’t mention UA a single time. The goal is to have a deal sell or merge the company by the summer.

With Sundance just a week away, Bingham’s ability to go to the leading indie fest and perform his duties as an “dependant” chief must have been red-lighted by the keepers of the cash machine. “Everyone who is going to be bidding for the hot movie, take a step forward. Not so fast, Bingham.” And it is easy to imagine Bingham arguing that going to Sundance and not buying would be a signal that UA was essentially out of business… which would only be a little less obvious that actually letting Bingham go.

There is one other element that might have been at play here. Bingham led the fight to tear down the screener ban. He was silenced for public consumption, but he worked as hard as anyone to turn it around. Would the powers that be at MGM allow Bingham to spend a few bucks and save face had he not been a thorn in their MPAA side?

One more point – A local boy genius pointed out that a Time-Warner purchase of MGM would have one major added financial benefit for Time-Warner, perhaps worth hundreds of millions… the rights conflict over The Hobbit goes right through MGM/UA. If Time-Warner owns MGM/UA, not only does it assure that a Peter Jackson version of The Hobbit happens, it assures that Time-Warner gets all the profits. Hmmmm…

10 TO REMEMBER

We’re just 8 days away from the close of the wide-open Oscar season, as balloting for nominations closes next Saturday. I have noticed a rather galling attitude by some about my MCN Oscar column and charts, suggesting that I predict based on personal preferences. That is, in a word, stoopid. My Oscar ballot would look nothing like my predictions.

That said, I figured it might be a good idea to offer my personal opinions of some potential nominees that people should take a serious look at before dismissing. So, this will not include films like American Splendor, which is very unlikely to get an Oscar nomination in any category except screenplay and likely in screenplay… thus encompassing being a front-runner and a non-factor in one film. Obviously, the Charlize Therons and Sean Penns of the world need no more help from me. And nothing can help the lost performance of the year by Frances McDormand in Laurel Canyon.

In alphabetical order:

Benecio del Toro in 21 Grams – A great performance in a film that does not seem to have a strong constituency in the Academy. Sean Penn’s work is showier, but this performance is masterful.

Dirty Pretty Things screenplay – Stephen Knight crafted a love story, a thriller and an immigrant drama all in one remarkable film.

Djimon Housou in In America – I don’t know why this performance has not become the supporting actor version of the Charlize wave, but it hasn’t and it would be a damned shame to overlook one of the most beautiful, gentle, rageful, raw performances of the year.

Holly Hunter in Thirteen – There is a lot of gimmicky stuff in this film, but Holly Hunter is an actress who just can’t help but to bring us right to the core of her being.

House of Sand & Fog – This movie upsets people… and it means to. The debut of Vadim Perelman will be remembered as a lost movie in the years to come as time gets people over the petty distractions that have kept this film from being embraced right now.

In America – You know I love it. And so do a high percentage of people who see this beating heart of a movie from Jim Sheridan.

Johnny Depp in Pirates Of The Caribbean – This is, along with Bill Murray, the performance of the year and overlooking it would be criminal.

Melissa Leo in 21 Grams – If you think about her work in this movie for a few seconds before filling out your ballot, you will have to include her simple, perfect performance.

Samantha Morton in In America – Samantha Morton is the greatest silent actress of this generation. She is a natural conduit of emotion.

Shohreh Aghdashloo in House of Sand & Fog – Another one of those supporting roles that left audiences trying to pronounce a new name on their way out of the theaters. Some argue that her character did stupid things in the film, but is there a minute of the performance that seems anything less than real?

ALSO – There are many people who love Seabiscuit. God bless you. But if the movie was really that good, why would Universal be trying so hard to buy a nomination? Would being the biggest FYC ad buyer in the industry be enough? Did they have to nearly double the number of ads that Miramax has bought for Cold Mountain? I mean, I know that Miramax is a little shy about fighting for awards and all, but…

And this little gremlin crawled into my brain after a screening of Master & Commander, which I was feeling pretty sure about for a Best Picture nod. It’s also true of Seabiscuit to a lesser degree. The DGA and PGA are heavily male dominated groups. The Academy is less so.

Return of the King and Mystic River both skew male. Master & Commander clearly skews heavily male. Lost In Translation, Cold Mountain and In America all seem to skew a little more female. Seabiscuit is somewhere in the middle.

MID-COLUMN CORRECTION

As it turns out, the following bit of statisctical gamesplaying, while still perhaps interesting, is completely wrong. A veteran of the wars is the CORRECTIVE READER OF THE DAY: "Your figuring of the Academy process for Best Picture (and Actors, etc) is wrong. Get it right from the Academy.

They count the number of first place votes. Anyone with more than 20% is nominated. Then they go to second place votes and delete those already nominated, etc. In practice, this means that any ballot choices, beyond third place, is practically meaningless, and a movie with a small, but loyal constituancy can get nominated, but if it is really disliked, will not win in the finals."

DP RESPONDS: I will revisit the issue and the numbers on Monday.

BACK TO THE COLUMN

If there are 5000 ballots turned in, that means there are 75,000 total “points” available with no film capable of getting more than 25,000 points. Let’s figure that at least 25,000 points go to various films that will not be nominated. That’s only 33.3% or 1.7 votes in every five on the Best Picture ballot. That leaves 50,000 points.

Here is one possible points scenario:

Let’s say that Rings is on 60% of the ballots and on those ballots, it averages a ranking of #2. After all, if you are a Rings voter, you are probably not lukewarm on it. That’s 12,000 points.

Let’s put Mystic River at 70% and a #2.5 ranking average. That’s 12,250 points.

Lost in Translation – 45% - #1.5 – 10,125 points

Seabiscuit – 75% - #4 – 7500 points

In America – 30% - #1.5 – 6750 points

Master & Commander – 40% - #3 – 6000 points

Cold Mountain – 55% - #4 – 5500 points

I’m not saying that this is what will happen… it is not a prognostication. I’m trying to make the point that there is a balancing act that offers all kind of possibilities. Like if up there, is Seabiscuit is a mild selection of a large number of voters, it can get nominated. Likewise, if In America is a passionate selection by less than a third of voters, it could be nominated.

Also, once the nominations process is over, there can be a big shift, as a third of the votes (or more…. or less) come back into the process, no longer going to also-rans. Also, you only vote for one nominee in the finals. But the other scenario that changes is that the nominated films tend to be seen by a more equal percentage of voters than the 254 eligible films do before nominations.

In my mind, the most dangerous scenario for Lord of the Rings is Lost in Translation getting nominated and In America not getting nominated. In that case, you’d have to figure that a high percentage of votes that were focused on “softer” or more indie-minded movies swing to Lost in Translation. At that point, you have two strong niches with Rings and Translation and Mystic River could sneak in.

Of course, what the real numbers will be is still anyone’s guess. But it is a different perspective than most people seem to have on the process.

READER OF THE DAY: Bob Koehler of Variety sent out his Top 10 list last night and this response to the e-mail was so psychotic that I just had to share it. The typos belong to the author: “FUCK OFF Robert Koehler.... this is not Robert Koehler.com.... you self centred fuckwit.... go back under the rock from which you came.... who gives a shit about your views.... got back to your variety play pen and play with yourself.....don't turn this email list into your laundry list show case.... your head sure is up your arsehole.... and for those of you who think I don't have any right to censor Robert Koehler... up yours too... you can have him all to yourselves....

E ME: And happy holidays to you too, sir. Oy.

Monday - December 29 - The Movies You Didn't See, But Should Have
Tuesday, December 30 - The Ten Worst Films Of 2003
Wednesday, December 31 - The Best Runnes Up Of 2003
Wednesday, December 31 - The Best Films Of 2003
Friday, January 2– Reflections on a New Year