January 27, 2004

Oscar Commentary On Movie City News... More here at THB at noon.

Noon - It took a few hours to start getting some perspective….

How amazing is the four-nomination performance by City of God? Well, realize for a second that each of the four nominations came from different branches of the Academy. So it wasn't a block of people saying, "We dig this." It was a block within each group, writers, directors, cinematographers and editors who recognized this remarkable, important film. (Here's my review from 17 months ago.)

Moreover, Fernando Meirelles (here is my profile of Fernando from 14 months ago.) never came back to Los Angeles to do even a single day of work to promote the film or his nomination possibilities since last year's Oscars. Bill Murray or Sean Penn being coy is one thing. This is something else altogether.

If there was a film that really benefited from screeners this year, you would have to say it was City of God. That and the performance of Keisha Castle-Hughes… perhaps Patricia Clarkson in Pieces of April, though I read that as a well-deserved career nomination, much like Ellen Burstyn's nod for Requiem For A Dream.

The likelihood is that the MPAA will not go back to a ban for next year, even though an earlier announcement, allowing release dates to be strategically positioned in anticipation of a screener-free environment, would likely stand legal scrutiny. The simple reason is that the MPAA does not want to deal with the noise. The tragedy that might come of screeners staying as they are is that studios will not have to make the extreme efforts to make the theatrical viewing opportunity available to voters of all stripes that were made this year. Movies should be seen on the screen. As this last year proved, once the door is cracked, the herd rumbles through, afraid to give up any edge. The nominations this year show just how tight the races can be, so who can blame the herd? But are we humans or are we beasts? Screeners are best left to Orcs and the infirm.

Oscar presumptions were blowing all over the place this morning. Three of the Best Picture nominees failed to get any acting nominations. Three. Not only that, but two of the films, Lock Of The Rings and Master & Commander, got double-digit nominations. I know that Rings' 11 nominations without an actor is a record, but my guess is that M&C's 10 nominations also break previous records.

Traditionally, there has been a "you need the actors to get a Best Picture nod" rule. The rule is dead, long live the rule! Even the two Best Picture movies that had acting nods had only four total, with Lost In Translation getting only one and Mystic River taking the more traditional feeling three nods. On the flip side of the former rule, there were four films that had two acting nominations - representing eight of the 20 total acting nominations - and only one of those four films scored more than one additional nomination (Cold Mountain, which had 7 total).

But there is more. There is only one December movie to be nominated for Best Picture this year. Releases were in July, September, October, November and December. So apparently, you need to gross at least $200 million in December to get an Oscar nomination in this new short season. Ha ha. But it's not completely a joke. The call to Ron Howard (Cinderella Man), Martin Scorsese (The Aviator) and Jim Brooks (Spanglish) and Cameron Crowe (Elizabethtown) was surely made this morning, as November 19 will be the target date for every film currently shooting for December.

December 3, which will from now on be known as The Date The Last Samurai Died, will be an alternative. But December 17, where Aviator and Cinderella Man are now slotted, is now going to be associated with a true can't miss. In the case of The Aviator in particular, Miramax's failure with Cold Mountain, will bring into question whether Miramax is as powerful an awards marketer with so short a schedule. Scorsese likes to take his time in post, but there is no reason why the film, which has wrapped, cannot be ready for November 19, which not only gives WB/NL Thanksgiving for a box office bump, but it gives Miramax the full month on December to make a power push for the title.

And for anyone wondering, "Is the Academy changing schedules?," the answer is "no." The strategy worked perfectly. The Golden Globes are going to be stuck in its new slot, as it got record ratings for NBC, at least in the overnights. The BFCA should be able to circle January 15, 2005 on their awards calendar right now, with Oscar nomination balloting likely closing on the 22nd, The Globes on the 30th, and Oscar nominations on February 2nd, followed by the Oscars on February 27th.

Personally, I couldn't be much happier with the performance of my Top Three films from 2003. Ironically, I felt that both In America and City of God should have been released in 2002 and truth be told, I still feel that both films would have fared even better last year. Surprisingly, only three of my Top Ten failed to grab at least one Oscar nomination - Elf, Irreversible and My Flesh & Blood. Only one of the trio was campaigned at all and I would argue that the film, My Flesh & Blood should have been included, but didn't have the historical draw of the titles that got slots.

There were around 40 nominations for my runners up list too. In fact, there were only a handful of major nominations that went to films or performances for which I don't have warm feelings.

All things considered, a rather joyous morning.. at least in a macro sense.